[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'I') just realized that all the talk about EVs is just more cornucopian blather. All the fossil fuels used for electricity generation are in peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'M')Q has shown that the cost of renewables will continue to escalate with the increasing cost of oil.

I'd like to have some input on the long term.

We tend to focus on the United States on this forum but I'd like to shift this question to China, India, Indonesia etc.

Will nations dive for debt to increase the production of renewables or simply ride the economic slope of $250 oil?

Gazprom has predicted $250 a barrel for 2009. I don't even know what to say about that scenario. Growth would be a word for the history books in that case.

Thoughts?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '.')..adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both.

[yesplease]

The only one the average American could afford with ~80-100 miles of range per charge, so it would have to be something that used ~50-200Wh/mile, with ~100Wh/mile being the average. Granted, we could increase vehicle size by a factor of ~three and decrease range by the same amount if we're barely going to meet the ~30 miles/day average, but I think that'd be cutting it too close. Otoh, we could increase pack size as well, but at an additional ~$1000/kWh that would be very pricey as well. Given the choice between an aerodynamic vehicle that costs ~$25-30k and goes ~100 miles/charge and a small electric crossover that costs ~$70-80k with the same range I think people will go with the smaller more efficient EVs for most use, 1-2 people/minimal cargo, and keep whatever other vehicles they have for other uses. Operating costs are also much lower, and post peak higher oil prices will only exacerbate this difference.

[vilemerchant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'I') just realized that all the talk about EVs is just more cornucopian blather. All the fossil fuels used for electricity generation are in peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '
')Concepts like the Chevy Volt are the solution IMO. 40mile range, if your daily commute is within that you never use a drop of gas. If you need to go further, the 1L turbo generator kicks in and starts recharging the batteries. Park it in the sun so the solar panels on the roof will charge it some during the day. Fully charge it up at night when the lights are out and most ppl are asleep.

[cube]

It's my observation that MOST (not all cornucopians) on this board are trolls. I find this unfortunate but that's just the reality.
Aside from the usually ones we all know like straw mans and ad hominem here are some other common tactics these Trolls resort too:

1) over-inflating - overstating the performance of a technology by 3 fold and claiming it to be 1/3rd the cost. IMHO No technology has been over-inflated more times then the electric car.

2) alternative replacement - Arguing that because an alternative technology exists it must therefore be a satisfactory replacement. For example using windmills as a replacement for natural gas in the production of ammonia based fertilizers. Technically true but certainly not economically realistic.

3) downgrading - There was a discussion about people commuting 100 miles by car and all of a sudden somebody hijacks the thread and talks about bicycles. *facepalm*

4) loaded question - Asking a question that cannot realistically be answered is trolling.

5) replace 1 replace everywhere - For example arguing that because electric mining and construction vehicles exist therefore ALL construction and mining vehicles can be converted to electric power. This is of course ridiculous. Just because something is viable in one very very very special application does not make it viable everywhere else.

I don't waste my time with trolls....they quickly get sent to my ignore-list.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '.')..adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both.

[vilemerchant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', '
')That's the thing with EVs and plugins. I started reading up on this stuff voraciously last year and totally got drunk on it. But when you study it closer you'll realize it isn't quite the slam dunk it seems at first. It's still worth doing, don't get me wrong, but there are serious caveats. Right now the biggest one is the price and short lifecycle of the battery pack. The economy of the battery pack pretty much determines the actual cost of driving the thing, not how much it costs to charge it each night.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '.')..adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '.')..adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both.

[lper100km]

I view the Tesla specs with a great deal of skepticism. They are in marketing mode here and many of the numbers they offer cannot exist coincidentally. On individual tests maybe, but as a box set, I don’t think so.

Nonetheless, you are on the right track. A small vehicle, rating 50mpg requires 36,000Wh. That’s for a gasoline engine with an overall tank to wheel efficiency of a generous 35%. An equivalent EV using the same vehicle body and driving pattern, should achieve around 90% efficiency, battery pack to wheels, maybe even slightly better. This calculates out to around 14,000 Wh or 280Wh per mile. At the moment, discounting Tesla’s unique battery size, a commercially reasonable battery pack is around 25kWh capacity, max around 45kWh. This could provide a range of 140 to 250 miles, not fully depleting the battery. A 15kWh pack would probably suffice for most commutes.

Obviously someone could nitpick this by pointing out that the battery pack weighs more than a small gasoline engine and transmission, the weight distribution will be different, use regenerative braking, etc etc. Just talking order of magnitude here, give or take 10% or so.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '~')200Wh/mile at least is a more realistic average instead of the pie-in-the-sky fantasy of 100Wh/mile
VMarcHart you'll have to double the number of windmills.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I') shoot for ca. 95 million autos that need to be replaced, this is approximately the number of solo occupancy commuters clogging up Interstates nationwide every morning.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '.')..adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'T')he Tesla roadster specs:
54,000 watt*hour battery pack
220 mile range
54,000/220 == 245 Wh/mile
The Tesla is a sports car but the range was derived using *normal* driving conditions.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'O')r halve the number of vehicles. I shoot for ca. 95 million autos that need to be replaced, this is approximately the number of solo occupancy commuters clogging up Interstates nationwide every morning.

Did somebody mention just using bicycles...

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'M')ind, it was not my pie-in-the-sky.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'M')ind, it was not my pie-in-the-sky.

[pedalling_faster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'I') want it to be an insurmountable debate because the techno-corpian argument continues to come up and it's driving me insane.