PeakOil is You
THE Consumerism Thread (merged)
Re: Internet Sales Up
by Niagara » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 21:33:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'H')uge spike up in Amazon today. Their stock was up over 10%.
Sorry spg, but I don't call 10% moves "huge" anymore. I used to. But not with airlines and financials popping 100 or 200% at the drop of a hat.
The markets are insane nowadays.
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Niagara - Tar Sands
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Re: Internet Sales Up
by SILENTTODD » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 22:39:19
I hate shopping. I buy most things off the internet, other than what I wear, it never fits!
Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
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Re: Internet Sales Up
by smallpoxgirl » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 22:48:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'H')uge spike up in Amazon today. Their stock was up over 10%.
Sorry spg, but I don't call 10% moves "huge" anymore. I used to. But not with airlines and financials popping 100 or 200% at the drop of a hat.
The markets are insane nowadays.
Yeah. Well. I guess 10% isn't big if you're American Airlines going from $4 to $4.40. It's a pretty big jump if you're Amazon going from 70.50 to 78.70. That's the biggest one day move Amazon has had in a year. I was sure glad I got out of my Amazon shorts on Tuesday anyway. That $6 opening gap would have been most unpleasant.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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smallpoxgirl - Expert
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Re: Internet Sales Up
by joewp » Thu 24 Jul 2008, 23:41:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Niagara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'H')uge spike up in Amazon today. Their stock was up over 10%.
Sorry spg, but I don't call 10% moves "huge" anymore. I used to. But not with airlines and financials popping 100 or 200% at the drop of a hat.
The markets are insane nowadays.
Yeah. Well. I guess 10% isn't big if you're American Airlines going from $4 to $4.40. It's a pretty big jump if you're Amazon going from 70.50 to 78.70. That's the biggest one day move Amazon has had in a year. I was sure glad I got out of my Amazon shorts on Tuesday anyway. That $6 opening gap would have been most unpleasant.
Yes, penny stocks like banks and airlines can make large moves like that all over the place, the base is so low that a few hundred million dollars in buying or selling can move them substantially. It's total market cap that matters, not the percentage moves of the stocks in question. For instance, Berkshire Hathaway has only about 2 million outstanding shares, but since the price is so high, a 10% move is extremely rare since so much money is involved. A bank with a billion shares outstanding at $6 a share can be moved a lot by the much less cash.
On a side note, I'm sorry you got out of your Amazon shorts, SPG. They probably looked cute.
Seriously, have you tried using puts instead of shorting? Much less margin required and if there's a large move against you the delta of the option declines as the stock price moves away from the strike price so that a $6.00 move only costs you about $200 or $300 per 100 share contract rather than the full $600 per lot of stock. Of course that could be 30-50% of the cash invested, but it's a lot less money than what the margin on a short stock is. Of course, when the stock does move down $6, you might only get $300 or $400 (depending on the price and delta), but as the decline accelerates the delta increases and you get to almost a dollar for dollar correspondence between the stock price and the option price as the price continues to decline.
To get back on topic, I was talking to people at a town council meeting last week and the subject of buying on the Internet came up. It appears more and more people are doing that than "running to the mall" to get things. I asked a few people if "running to the mall" might become a thing of the past if gas prices hit $6/gallon by next Summer and they said sure it would, it's already getting to that point.
Buy puts on mall operators!!!
For more information on options, see Option Volatility and Pricing by Sheldon Natenberg, available on Google Books at the preceding link. It's like the bible of option trading.
Joe P. joeparente.com
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Or is this kind of baldfacedness typical of gurus/analysts - "Buy now! Not that I'm going to!"? Or some kind of disclosure is at work? Admittedly rather out of my element. My idea of an investment is to hoard olive oil bottles.
