[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'P')erhaps our choices are more entwined than you might believe.--snip-- Amusing, isn't it?

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')musing, isn't it?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'T')he summer thermostat setting is 85 degrees.

[kanman]

From what I've read, to reduce US consumption all that is required is to give Jack diplomatic immunity, a big pile of ammo and a local anasthetic for his trigger finger.

[Heineken]

I agree with Jack, Frank, and some others that Jevon's paradox renders most conservation, recycling, etc., a waste of time. The stuff is going to get used up anyway, if not by us, then by the people we pass it on to. The sooner it is used up and people die off, the better the chance that the earth can recover from us.

Conservation buys time . . . for what? Just somebody else's consumption of the same stuff somewhere else or a bit farther down the time line.

Ironically, maximum consumption now is the most environmentally sound policy for the long term. What conservation per capita leads to is a larger population with larger total consumption, a la "Soylent Green."

One conservation tactic I do support strongly is setting aside land and leaving it alone, to provide "seeds" for restoring the ruined earth we leave behind. But I'm doubtful that even that land will survive us; as conditions deteriorate and people grow more desperate, those reserves will be pillaged too.

[Homesteader]

Lets see. . . .the children of today will say:

A. Thank you so much for using up the available resources so ours and future generations can get on with out them.

B. Thank you for raising us to be responsible stewards who even in the face of public opinion did the right and conserved where possible.

Oh thats right. Some of you don't have children, and apparently those of you who do and aren't conserving. . .well, you can figure out what you will tell your kids as they look at you in disgust. Probably something along the lines of "there was nothing I could have done, and besides, everyone else was doing it anyway."

That should play well.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kanman', 'F')rom what I've read, to reduce US consumption all that is required is to give Jack diplomatic immunity, a big pile of ammo and a local anasthetic for his trigger finger.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'w')ell, you can figure out what you will tell your kids as they look at you in disgust. Probably something along the lines of "there was nothing I could have done, and besides, everyone else was doing it anyway."

That should play well.

[Kfish]

Given the sort of kids you might end up having, Jack, plus a reduced police presence and a possible societal backlash against previous generations, I might suggest that having children is not an effective survival strategy for you.

Under Jevon's paradox, yes, current consumption is not penalised. However, the catch is down the road when resources become more scarce and even the high-end consumers are forced to economise. The joy of more consumption now is balanced out by the pain of having to economise more abruptly later, and having to do it when the resources run out, rather than at a time and pace of one's choosing.

Also, many conservation strategies (for example, biodiesel from second-hand chip oil) actually depend on a consumer economy for their source material. So keep consuming! Buy that junk and tire of it quickly, so I may buy it second-hand for a mere fraction of its original cost!

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '[')b]Jevon's paradox.
Why should I - or, for that matter, anyone - voluntarily conserve? We merely transfer consumption from ourselves to someone else. Conservation may be a private virtue, but it is not a public good. Rather, it is pointless.

There are some 500 posts that mention Jevon's paradox. It is worthwhile to consider them.

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'T')hing is, folks, virtually everybody really does live according to Jack's credo. We'll conserve only when forced to. It'll have to be draconian. It'll take something like martial law. We'll conserve only because of fear of severe punishment.

[btu2012]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Ironically, maximum consumption now is the most environmentally sound policy for the long term. What conservation per capita leads to is a larger population with larger total consumption, a la "Soylent Green."

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Ironically, maximum consumption now is the most environmentally sound policy for the long term. What conservation per capita leads to is a larger population with larger total consumption, a la "Soylent Green."

[jdmartin]

Y'all are a smart bunch, so I'd like to see your take on this. I've got my own opinions, but I'll keep them to myself so as not to color the responses.

I've got a friend that owes about $27k out total in consumer credit - car loan plus credit cards. The car is smart and frugal - small Ford - and is not far from being paid for, so selling it makes no sense. At any rate, the guy's got about $10k in the bank in cash and a reasonably secure job (works for a city in a job that if it goes, civilization's pretty much done) that nets him about $1.5k more per month than his bills. His plan is to have all his consumer credit paid by the end of the year - this of course will leave him cash depleted, but will save him some interest expenses.

So what would you do? Stockpile your money and hope that inflation eats away the value of the debt, and that (hopefully) wage increases get you more money, and just keep making small payments? Stockpile all the money until you have enough to pay for everything, then pay it off? Pay off what you can afford to as you go?

Stockpiling gives you something of a hedge against losing a job, though his job is relatively stable. On the other hand, he's going to spend probably a couple K more by stringing along the debt. Or if he pays everything off, he's got less debt but it will also take him close to a year to stockpile the same amount of money. Thus, if his job wasn't as secure as believed, he'd be cash poor.

Thoughts?

[BigTex]

Pay off one credit card and once the balance is zero, call to cancel the account but inquire about a favorable balance transfer offer. If a good balance transfer offer is available, use it to pay off another card. When the other card is paid off via the balance transfer, continue working through the cards in the same manner. Through this process he can pay off a few of the cards and effectively refinance the rest on more faovorable terms. I would probably commit half the money to doing this and keep the other half for rainy months.

[roccman]

one word...

(and this is supported by current actions and policies [read FDIC] on the part of our government)...

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[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'P')ay off one credit card and once the balance is zero, call to cancel the account but inquire about a favorable balance transfer offer. If a good balance transfer offer is available, use it to pay off another card. When the other card is paid off via the balance transfer, continue working through the cards in the same manner. Through this process he can pay off a few of the cards and effectively refinance the rest on more faovorable terms. I would probably commit half the money to doing this and keep the other half for rainy months.

[benzoil]

I never used a balance transfer (or was lucky enough to have money in the bank at the time!), but BigTex's strategy is the generally accepted method of paying off credit cards: pay off one, use the extra money to pay off the next.

As for the best course of action, debt free is good. If I were your friend, I'd leave the cash in the bank until spending some would pay off a card and free up more cash for paying off the next. Thus, if you owe $3000 on one card, use the cash to pay it off and save $300/month to make big payments on the next card.

While we tend to view things in the context of Peak Oil, being debt free or having little debt, is a good fiscal idea. The money he has in the bank might earn 3-5% (if he's in a long term CD), but he's paying 10-30% interest on the cards. Not just a loss of 5% since the cards have a balance much larger than the cash account.

If we really are heading into the teeth of a big (massive?) recession, cash on hand is good, but so is low debt.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'o')ne word...

(and this is supported by current actions and policies [read FDIC] on the part of our government)...

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[jlw61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'Y')'all are a smart bunch, so I'd like to see your take on this.