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THE Offshore Drilling Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby coyote » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 03:36:01

Why Peleg... was that a pun? :-D
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby Peleg » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 03:39:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'W')hy Peleg... was that a pun? :-D


Pun-ky Brewster!
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby coyote » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 04:40:06

Hmmm... no hope? I suppose that depends on what we are hoping for. I hope that our society can be transformed by the collapse ahead of us. I hope that folks will truly come to understand what sustainability means.

That the disaster will humble our culture, and teach us that we are part of nature, and not above it, and that natural systems are not merely resources to be exploited and consumed. That we will go back to simpler ways, more in harmony with our fellow species, and less filled with hubris and short-sightedness.

That ultimately, hundreds or thousands of years from now, there will be a global human culture of real understanding. I hope to be one of many people who help these things to come about after I'm gone.

I also hope that the collapse will not devastate our environment so badly that these other things I hope for won't happen. Do I hope that the collapse itself won't happen? Nope. Not any more.

That would be an irrational hope.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 12:11:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'H')mmm... no hope? I suppose that depends on what we are hoping for. I hope that our society can be transformed by the collapse ahead of us. --snip--
Do I hope that the collapse itself won't happen? Nope. Not any more. That would be an irrational hope.

That is an almost poetic description of the doom of our civilization. You are a beautiful writer.

It would only be fitting if, hundreds or thousands of years from now, when the remaining humans have established a global human culture based on real understanding, sustainability, and goodness, that people will still gather around the campfires and sing the praises of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who helped preserve those endangered oil deposits buried under thousands of feet of water and mud, many miles off the coastline and so hastened the arrival of the halcyon post-oil eco-paradise that the world will surely become. Namaste!
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby coyote » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 13:34:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')hat is an almost poetic description of the doom of our civilization. You are a beautiful writer.
It would only be fitting if, hundreds or thousands of years from now, when the remaining humans have established a global human culture based on real understanding, sustainability, and goodness, that people will still gather around the campfires and sing the praises of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who helped preserve those endangered oil deposits buried under thousands of feet of water and mud, many miles off the coastline and so hastened the arrival of the halcyon post-oil eco-paradise that the world will surely become. Namaste!

:lol: :lol: Plant, I suppose I got off topic. Thanks!
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 13:39:13

Actually flurry oil produced on federal lands cannot be exported out of the US w/o gov't permission. That has been rarely granted and then it was done more as a swap then a sale to save transportation costs. All oil from federal leases would be priced as per the market conditions. Also, the gov't would receive 1/6 of the oil as either a cash payment or they could take it in kind. Much of the SPR has been filled with in-kind oil. In 2007 the feds received over $6 billion in royalties from production on gov't lands. With the current prices that number should exceed $10 billion this year. The gov't is free to sell their millions of bbl of royalty oil at any price they want. So far your gov't has been satisfied to sell your oil to you for the same price ExxonMobil does.

That bit of news might piss off a few folks...if anyone in the MSM would bother to tell them.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby coyote » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 14:31:01

Rockman, even if all the oil is all kept and sold in the U.S., wouldn't the effect on global oil prices be exactly the same as if it had been sold overseas?
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 14:37:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', ' '):lol: :lol: Plant, I suppose I got off topic. Thanks!

No...I really enjoyed the poetic description...thank you. I'm still in the denial stage in dealing with the consequences of the peak oil scenario, so I appreciated the positive note in your post.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby dbruning » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 14:55:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')IKES!!! When did THIS happen?!


Why do you think imports are so crucial? Or why we keep hearing about our need to reduce our reliance on imported oil?

This problem has been around for a long time. The waning of the dollar, combined with the preliminary effects of peak oil is what is making things so tense right now.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 14:56:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Canuk', 'T')he likelihood of any major fields are low.
If we drill we will remove the fantasy - its like a lottery ticket until you check the numbers you could too be a millionaire...


come on... people who have the fantasy now will not be convinced we have adequately drilled no matter how many holes we put into the ground.

even the people here who don't have the fantasy want to drill because of the schadenfreude they will get when the oil doesn't help. poor investment if you ask me. but you won't even get that because the drill fanatics will ever ever ever admit they were wrong...
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 15:04:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f a bill giving some right to drill in expanded areas drives speculation out of oil and we end up back at $105 for a few years we have helped ourselves.
[/quote]
how does this help anyone? what's wrong with the price of oil reflecting its true utility?

it should be high. it should be painful to take a jet plane to mexico for a weekend of bing drinking. It should hurt to drive a boat around in circles on a crowded artificial lake in the desert. It should hurt to ignore the casual carpool on the way to work so you can masturbate to in-dash porn in peace for the two hour commute.

point is, we can cut out huge amounts of casual oil consumption and price is the only thing going to kick our asses into doing it.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 15:07:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'Y')ou wish to sell off the last remaining oil we have left just for the spectacular hope that speculators will ramp down their enthusiasm for a few years (days?) and prices will diminish 20-30$/barrel. Bah!
Tell us more about the evil speculators and how they will continue to control the price of oil in the future! :-D

i could be reading it wrong, but i think thuja was being sarcastic about the speculators...
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 15:17:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')a paltry 1 or 2 extra million barrels that might or might not be produced will mean next to nothing compared to that reality...
and a paltry windmill means nothing....and a paltry nuclear plant is meaningless....and a paltry solar array is only a second of energy supply....and so on.....blah blah blah....but put them all together and you've got significant amounts of energy and more energy is exactly what is needed in dealing with an energy shortage. :)

you are right, and on top of that, simple conservation is grossly underestimated as far as the amount of a dent it can make.

but the only way you will get any investment into any of those alternatives is if you stop pulling our backs out trying to force our mouths close enough to suck our own... umm, domestic oil supplies, let the price float up. and let T. Boone Pickens et. al. do their jobs.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 15:23:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')e'll wait until Queen Nancy Pelosi says its ok....or until she is deposed and a more rational person becomes speaker of the House.

It's a representative democracy, Expletive deleted . As one of her constituents, living on the west coast, you are god damn right i don't want any more icky poo oil spills.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby Peleg » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 15:38:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'I')t should be painful to take a jet plane to mexico for a weekend of bing drinking.


Hey some people like bings some like pina coladas. So prices should be high because then people will become more moral? There is a $30 speculation premium in the current price and about a $14 risk premium. Alot of the speculators are hedging their fuel costs by buying futures, so as usual it will be the little guys that get smacked down when gas adjust to the rise and flirts with $5 unleaded and $6 diesel. There are several mitigation steps that can be taken but if price skyrockets out of all sane estimates due to anything other than fundamentals all hope of mitigation is lost. We have two bugaboos, and overcorrection due to excessive price, and an overcorrection due to shortages from price being too low. $150 is financially too high right now for a significant number of Americans and the psychology it brings is hurting everyone. And God forbid but once we get a run on the bank that we call stocks of finished fuels because a panic arises over shortage fears the country as you and I know it is done. Martial law will be imposed and you will be relocated to a facility where your skill set matches the needs of the continuity of government team. We need to stay as far way from the levels that over correct demand as possible. The scarcity appropriate price is somewhere between $90 and $120 (IMHO.)
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby f2tornado » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 17:41:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', 'I') have a question for those who favor offshore and ANWR drilling as a way to decrease our "dependence on foreign oil."

once the oil is extracted, doesn't it belong to the same companies that extract it from anywhere in the world, to be sold on an open, international market? do you think the shareholders of those companies would allow preferential sales terms to US consumers at below market rates? What difference does it make whether the oil is from US or foreign sources once it gets to market?


Response to first bolded portion. Yes. That is correct in the current regulatory scheme. The market for oil is global so it really doesn't matter where the oil goes. Ironic some politicians want to sue OPEC for not exporting more oil yet want to ban American exports (which are mainly confined to Alaskan oil). So long as you can import oil at $x and export at $x+y then there is no problem here.

The second bolded statement is more important. The big difference is the U.S. government gets a fat piece of the pie from oil produced domestically. The government didn't have to buy a drop of SPR oil. It was all from royalty payment swaps. Further, Uncle Sam gets a slice of domestic oil profits, investor profits, oil sector wage earnings, gas taxes to haul the equipment and workers, etc. In the end the government probably ends up with 50% of the oil wealth when combining payments and taxation. The public gets an earful over Exxon's profits but never hears about the firm's 40+% effective tax rate. Record profits = record tax revenue. All this and we havn't even touched on the trade deficit.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 17:55:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', ' ')What difference does it make whether the oil is from US or foreign sources once it gets to market?


None at all. It will all work equally well in your car.

I know some people like to drive a foreign car and drink imported Perrier water and prefer French wines to good old California wines, but with gas it really doesn't matter. Domestic is just as good as imported.
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby thuja » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 19:45:30

Four main reasons why increased domestic drilling in currently off-limits areas is dumb:

1) Strategically it is a waste of our last major untapped deposits of oil. Save it for a decade or two when things get really really dire and we need something to keep the lights on...

2) Why let oil companies exploit it and sell it at Global Spot market prices just to quench the thirst of millions of new Chindian econocar drivers?

3) Why use up our last oil resources when it will make nary a difference in the price of the pump? It is likely to only marginally reduce the rate of inflation in oil prices.

4) Why focus on drilling when it is unlikely to even reduce the global rate of depletion. Any new oil will simply be swallowed up by new consumers in the unlikely scenario that the price goes down.


The only sane reason I have heard is to go ahead and drill so that we get that red herring out of the way and concentrate on true ways of adapting to a Post Peak world...


But I'm happy to hear silly partisan hacking about Nancy Pelosi ...both the parties are out to lunch and anyone here should know that...
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 20:24:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'F')our main reasons why increased domestic drilling in currently off-limits areas is dumb:

1) Strategically it is a waste of our last major untapped deposits of oil. Save it for a decade or two when things get really really dire and we need something to keep the lights on...

2) Why let oil companies exploit it and sell it at Global Spot market prices just to quench the thirst of millions of new Chindian econocar drivers?

3) Why use up our last oil resources when it will make nary a difference in the price of the pump? It is likely to only marginally reduce the rate of inflation in oil prices.

4) Why focus on drilling when it is unlikely to even reduce the global rate of depletion. Any new oil will simply be swallowed up by new consumers in the unlikely scenario that the price goes down.



If you think that peak oil won't affect the US economy or the global economy to any great extent in the next 20 years, then it makes sense to put off opening ANWR and the OCS. However, if you think that peak oil is going to have a substantial impact within the next 10 years, then it might be wise to dethrone Queen Nancy Pelosi and open up some new areas for drilling now, because it will take 10 years before significant amounts of the new oil makes it to market.

IMHO, any new oil from ANWR and the OCS won't be enough to overcome the approaching energy shortages caused by peak oil, but they can be part of a bridge to help fund new alternative energy strategies and build the new energy infrastructure.

It would be foolish to focus on ANWR and the OCS oil to the exclusion of renewable energy sources, but it is equally foolish to ignore the fact that our entire current infrastructure is based on oil, and that aging oil infrastructure has to operate a while longer to keep the economy going while we transition to new energy sources. 8)
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Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling

Unread postby thuja » Fri 18 Jul 2008, 20:53:16

So you didn't want to address my points then?
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