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THE 'How much oil is remaining?' Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?

Unread postby btu2012 » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 08:59:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')Monte Speaks!


Here are a few more opinions presented by MQ about this subject.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic33890-0-asc-675.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')This is why carrying capacity must veto all concerns, ethical or otherwise.

Fear of a self-defeating strategy must not veto carring capacity.

Ok, carrying capacity must veto reasoned conclusions.

Other than a couple of members, this philosophical discussion was way beyond most people's ability to grasp or even discuss.

It is obvious they don't get it. [...]It's their thinking paradigm; the way they perceive and reason is rooted in a "full belly" Mechanical world view. They froth and lash out at the messenger...like silencing me changes the reality. I have to be discredited. Otherwise, their whole world view crashes.[...]Yes, I find that quite amazing. They won't even go so far as to examine that incongruity in their thinking. [...]And how can you use those incoherent ethics to refute the criticism of those same ethics?

I can see my statement went right over your head. What do you think I meant when I wrote that?

I just don't think you have thought this through and it makes you say things that are hubristic and in denial of reality,..you just don't know it.

Your mindset is beyond changing.

It makes them think to see absurd positions debunked.

Oh, to the contrary. I Have thought out my position so far, you don't seem to able to comprehend it.

Thinking, Shannymara, thinking.

I have never advocated murder, but what if it is required?


Some discussion of his arguments can be found here:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic34134-0-asc-0.html
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Re: How much oil do we REALLY have left?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 21 Jun 2008, 12:59:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('btu2012', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PraiseDoom', '
')Monte Speaks!


Here are a few more opinions presented by MQ about this subject.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic33890-0-asc-675.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')This is why carrying capacity must veto all concerns, ethical or otherwise.

Fear of a self-defeating strategy must not veto carring capacity.

Ok, carrying capacity must veto reasoned conclusions.

Other than a couple of members, this philosophical discussion was way beyond most people's ability to grasp or even discuss.

It is obvious they don't get it. [...]It's their thinking paradigm; the way they perceive and reason is rooted in a "full belly" Mechanical world view. They froth and lash out at the messenger...like silencing me changes the reality. I have to be discredited. Otherwise, their whole world view crashes.[...]Yes, I find that quite amazing. They won't even go so far as to examine that incongruity in their thinking. [...]And how can you use those incoherent ethics to refute the criticism of those same ethics?

I can see my statement went right over your head. What do you think I meant when I wrote that?

I just don't think you have thought this through and it makes you say things that are hubristic and in denial of reality,..you just don't know it.

Your mindset is beyond changing.

It makes them think to see absurd positions debunked.

Oh, to the contrary. I Have thought out my position so far, you don't seem to able to comprehend it.

Thinking, Shannymara, thinking.

I have never advocated murder, but what if it is required?


Some discussion of his arguments can be found here:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic34134-0-asc-0.html


"They froth and lash out at the messenger...like silencing me changes the reality."

Denial rules, it seems.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Vogelzang » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 20:50:06

Besides conventional oil, there's more than twice as much heavy oil as there is conventional oil.

Heavy oil forum

Details about heavy oil
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Cashmere » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 20:53:08

Well done.

Now that we're saved, anybody want a beer?

Let's get a Bud. It's owned by the Belgians.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 21:25:12

You've chosen an appropriate avatar, Birdsong.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog

"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Cochise » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 21:25:47

hmmmm.... did anyone tell you that our current lifestyle is based on easy recoverable oil?
And that easy recoverable oil is almost gone?
Why do you think big oil started to process the tar sands in Alberta?
If it is economically convenient is because the light sweet crude is almost gone !
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Vogelzang » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 21:35:27

I read a couple years ago that recovery of Canadian tar sands are profitable as long as oil stays above $30 a barrel.
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Windmills » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 22:26:08

I heard that nuclear fusion is right around the corner, along with personal jetpacks and flying cars. And just think, Star Trek technology is not that far away! The replicator! "Honey, make me a damned ham!"
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Canuk » Tue 15 Jul 2008, 23:26:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vogelzang', 'I') read a couple years ago that recovery of Canadian tar sands are profitable as long as oil stays above $30 a barrel.


The tar sands require large amounts of water fresh water and natural gas to cook the sand. There is a shortage of water and likely to be a shortage of gas in Alberta to ramp production up beyond the planned projects. In fact they may not have enough water for all the planned production.

Additionally tar sands have a very poor energy return due to the high amount of energy used to mine the sand, transport, cook, etc. It is in the range of 5:1 (5 barrels of oil produced for every barrel (equivalent) used) though this figure may be lower - this is far lower than Texas where some wells got as high as 30:1. It is unlikely that the daily production volume will ever match the needs of the US market and the costs are significantly higher than conventional oil plus it is not a direct substitute chemically for conventional oil.

See an in depth article on the tar sands here
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3839
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Concerned1 » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 00:07:32

You know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Ronin » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 00:16:36

I think things have to get worse before they can get better at this point.
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Canuk » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 00:33:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned1', 'Y')ou know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!


I don't think the comments are all negative - in fact I think my response to the tar sands was very factual and based on years of news articles on the tar sands we get here in Canada.

Too many of the positives are similar to the compact flourescant solution - too small to make a difference but a feel good for the public. Here the Ontario government is running adds telling people to have stock of 3 days supplies of water, etc. in their houses on TV (general problems like blackouts, pandemeic, etc. not PO).

Unfortunately large scale measures are needed to fix the problem all of which will have major effects on society - any of them in isolation is like putting a finger in a broken dyke to stop a leak. Major societal changes in transportation, agriculture, personal consumption, etc. will be required and it is unlikely that this will occur smoothly.
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby chenopodium » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 01:01:18

I'm probably one of most optimistic person on this planet, but I'm also a very logical/technical person and study the facts from all sides in all detail and try to come to conclusions in an objective, unbiased way.

I laughed at people who worried about the year 2k problem and I generally don't believe in any dooms-day scenarios. And I *want* to have a good future, I have kids for gods sake...

However, this is truly different. All the facts I've read lead to the same conclusion no matter how "optimistic" I try to be.

Oil will be declining in a few years at the latest, and it will drag down the economies with it, inflate food prices (and almost everything else too!). I see a real possibility of food shortages/starvation and chaos. It has completely changed my outlook of life, and I think I will be spending my old days gardening (if I survive...)

Vogelzang, you have to consider a few things:
- it's the *flow rate* that matters, not the amount!

- the "30$" price is calculated using *cheap oil*. The machinery to extract the tar sands uses lots of energy/oil! As the price of oil increases, so does the cost to extract! So the"30$" oil suddenly turns into "140$ oil" and so on. It's called the "law of receding horizons"

- even if we could get a huge flow rate (how), and it would be viable, it will take *many years* to ramp up any significant amount of production

- in addition, there are limits as mentioned above about the environment (water usage etc!)
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby vilemerchant » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 02:38:01

He's right, there is plenty of oil left. We just won't be able to get it out of the ground and into our cars/trucks/ships/planes fast enough to keep up with demand.
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 09:26:09

Actually, "plenty" describes a situation in which there is far more oil than there is demand, indicating a price that should be low relative to other things in demand.

I would, instead, say we have "a lot" of oil left, because that doesn't carry the connotation that what we have is excessively plentiful, mainly because we USE "a lot" of oil.

Because it's not.
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 09:45:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', 'H')e's right, there is plenty of oil left. We just won't be able to get it out of the ground and into our cars/trucks/ships/planes fast enough to keep up with demand.


This is pretty much the incontrovertible problem. As pstarr pointed, powerdown seems the first sensible step, then a genuine investment in renewable, varied power sources.

Despair drives people into unreasonable ideas. Nuclear power is - in MY personal opinion - one of those ideas. Same with heavy sands.

This might give me a tree-hugger reputation, but one of the main problems with tar sands is the environmental impact: it's nuts! We'll HAVE to live in THIS planet, you know?
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 15:45:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vilemerchant', 'H')e's right, there is plenty of oil left. We just won't be able to get it out of the ground and into our cars/trucks/ships/planes fast enough to keep up with demand.


This is pretty much the incontrovertible problem. As pstarr pointed, powerdown seems the first sensible step, then a genuine investment in renewable, varied power sources.

Despair drives people into unreasonable ideas. Nuclear power is - in MY personal opinion - one of those ideas. Same with heavy sands.

This might give me a tree-hugger reputation, but one of the main problems with tar sands is the environmental impact: it's nuts! We'll HAVE to live in THIS planet, you know?


Who cares about Alberta anyways? Let's trash it so rich people's villas are fully powered up!
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 16:06:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '
')Who cares about Alberta anyways? Let's trash it so rich people's villas are fully powered up!


Right. I live on the other side of the Big Pond, anyway! 8)
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Re: There's plenty of oil left

Unread postby Vogelzang » Wed 16 Jul 2008, 17:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned1', 'Y')ou know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!



See this thread for some insights.
The Left's death cult

Someone told me that from the IP addresses of some of these people he can tell many of them are in Iran, North Korea and Pakistan. So they're spies spreading anti-western propaganda. pstarr is in North Korea.



Check out this article here. You can see that a lot of heavy oil is exported to the USA from Canada.

Comparing Venezuelan and Canadian Heavy Oil and Tar Sands

Also see

World Conventional and Heavy Oil
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