[Vogelzang]

pstarr = Judgie = retard drop out troll

[CherBear1983]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned1', 'Y')ou know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!

[Ludi]

It bothers several of us that people talk about cannibalism so much. You are not alone. It certainly bothers me!

[CarlosFerreira]

Amen to CherBear1983. That's my view, I could sign that. Well, amost, I'm 1981 vintage and I'm not vegetarian. All the violent doomer-porn makes more moderated people at bay. Those more moderated people are the majority, I think. They are the one upon whom scarcity will fall, they are the one that will have to bear the burden.

Hope. This is not MadMax 2 yet. Work so it doesn't become so.

[Canuk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CherBear1983', '
')Up until about a month ago, I thought that peak oil meant that we would be all switching from gas-powered vehicles to driving vehicles that use other forms of energy (solar, hydrogen, etc.) SERIOUSLY. That's how misinformed I was. I didn't make all of the other connections, until I did some googling and some reading. And it's scary how many people out there know so little about peak oil and its implications. The first website I found was Matt Savinar's lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, so you can imagine how freaked out I was.

So I ended up joining this forum to see what other concerned people out there were saying about peak oil, what they were doing to prepare, etc. There are a lot of really intelligent people here who seem to have a good understanding of a lot of the ideas about peak oil that I am just beginning to grasp. There are also a lot of meatheads who seem to enjoy the fact that so much human suffering is about to happen.

[ROCKMAN]

Carlos,

A tricky answer: it's not difficult to find what's left out there. Drilling/producing in some of the extreme environments is difficult. But the costs have shot way up but not because of drilling difficulties: it's the demand for equipment and materials. It may be hard to believe but right now it's not much more economical to drill then it was when oil was $60/bbl. The push into the resource plays (tite sands, shale gas) is really pushing prices up across the board. To a degree these plays are like shooting fish in a barrel....except the bullits have gotten really expensive.

Really: finding oil and gas now is easier than its even been. But when it comes to finding mega fields like Ghawar its a little like looking for an elephant in your mail box. If it isn't there you're never going to find it no matter how hard you look. I've mentioned it elsewhere: many companies are spending more to buy production then to drill for it. The publicly owned companies must increase their assets and many are at the own PO moment: they can't drill enough to replace their depletion.

[ROCKMAN]

Carlos,

Just after I posted I though of a great example of what I’m trying to explain. I’ve spent much of my career drilling offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. When I began 33 years ago we used 2d seismic. This really just means there was a low density of data, As such, you had to guess a lot to make an interpretation of where to drill. But now, 3d seismic data (much greater density…like 100X) and almost all of the guess work in gone. But it’s a double edged sword. This technology greatly improved the success rate and allowed us to drill for smaller targets. But it also killed a lot of drilling opportunities by condemning an idea without having to drill a hole to find out. It’s that improved success rate that allows us to drill for smaller targets. That’s one big reason why seeing a big upswing in the number of wells drilled over time doesn’t mean those wells are finding as much oil/gas as they did 30 years ago.

[CarlosFerreira]

Thank you, ROCKMAN. I'm glad I have the chance to hear that from someone in the oil business.

So, what you are saying is that, in order to get the same or less oil, you are spending more and more capital. That's something not discussed in this forum everyday, everyone always talks about depletion, demand and offer, and incentives to further production, but there's not enough talk of a fundamental law: the more you deplete a resource, the harder you have to dig for what's left, because the easy, more convenient and cheap stuff is explored stuff.

You're saying some companies are already putting in more that they take out, capital-wise. That is, if I understood, that some smaller well are operating at a loss? If that's so, we may be deeper in PO that I expected.

[Peleg]

Yes, plenty of oil and plenty of guns in the Republic of Texas!

[ROCKMAN]

Oh no Carlos...the oil biz is great now. I may have mislead you. We we're doing very good when oil was $40 - 50/bbl. So times are great now for new drilling but not all that much better than when oil was lower because it was also cheaper to drill then. The folks who really made out great were ones that bought companies/fields when they were priced at $50/bbl. I thought they were a little nuts at the time but now they look either very smart or very lucky.

But you're right about PO being upon us. I'm all for drilling in the off limit areas as long as it can be done in an ecologically sound manner. But it won't change the arrival of PO by much. But it would help our economy and balance of trade to a small degree. At best I hope it would soften the PO blow a little.

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vogelzang', 'p')starr = Judgie = retard drop out troll

[CarlosFerreira]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')'m all for drilling in the off limit areas as long as it can be done in an ecologically sound manner.

[ROCKMAN]

Carlos,

As far as environmental nightmares like the Valdez we on the drilling side of the business get a little frustrated with the comparison. The oil shipping business and their problems are not connected in any way to potential pollution from drilling. In fact, one can make the argument that any increase in domestic production could have a minimal effect of tanker spills as there would be less imported oil moving in tankers. But again, with smaller reserves in the US this would be a very minor benefit.

I won’t bore anyone with the details but the environmental over site of offshore drilling is huge. Not that most operators don’t want to be good neighbors, the big motivation is the potential fines. Constant scheduled and unscheduled inspections by regulatory groups do a very good job on keeping the drillers honest. Accidents will always happen but they are very costly from both remediation and fines. I’ve seen an operator spend a couple of hundred dollars to dispatch a workboat to recover an empty paper sack containing a nonhazardess powder residue.

As far as companies loosing money: the good ones will always make a profit and the poorly run won’t. It’s not the price of oil that determines an oil company’s success in the long run but their ability to find oil and gas. In 1985 – 87 I generated the best return I had ever achieved for a client at a time when NG was $1/mcf and oil was $18/bbl. It’s not what you sell it for as much as it is what it cost you to drill and produce it and how much you find. This what I meant earlier when I said the increased drilling cost today delivers economic value similar to when oil was $40/bbl. But what I didn’t emphasize was that good companies were making big profits when oil was $40/bbl. There are companies out there loosing their butts daily even with $140 oil. Prices do not overcome incompetence. Prices will still be controlled by market forces. The decline in global production due to PO and the inability to replace the mega fields that will be slipping away will determine prices. The only significant modifying effect in the short term, IMHO, will come from demand destruction

[vilemerchant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CherBear1983', '
')On a side note, not that anyone cares, but I just want to say that it's really irritating that half the threads I go into, somebody always has to throw cannibalism into the conversation. And it's not that it bothers me for people to mention the c-word, but some people on this forum offer these bizarre images of the future, almost gleefully, like they can't wait to take out a fork and dig into their neighbour. So, just for the record, I'll be putting people on my ignore list when they talk about eating people with relish (no pun intended).

[CarlosFerreira]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')s far as companies loosing money: the good ones will always make a profit and the poorly run won’t. It’s not the price of oil that determines an oil company’s success in the long run but their ability to find oil and gas.
...
There are companies out there loosing their butts daily even with $140 oil. Prices do not overcome incompetence. Prices will still be controlled by market forces.

[ROCKMAN]

Carlos,

Actually M&A's have been the rule and not the exeption for 15+ years. The public doesn't notice them except for the Exxon+Mobil and Conoco+Phillips stories. But there have been 100's of significant M&A's. Check out a company called XTO. Most of the public never heard of them yet they have been one of the biggest buyers for years. And their own corporate PO is driving them even harder to do more M&A's.

[CherBear1983]

vilemerchant, you are brilliant. I make ONE post pointing out something that irritates me on this board, and that means I like it? The point was that I DON'T like hearing about it. Were you absent when they were handing out brains?
Congratulations on being the first person on my ignore list.

[vilemerchant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CherBear1983', 'v')ilemerchant, you are brilliant. I make ONE post pointing out something that irritates me on this board, and that means I like it? The point was that I DON'T like hearing about it. Were you absent when they were handing out brains?
Congratulations on being the first person on my ignore list.

[ROCKMAN]

Vile,

I think Cher is just playing hard to get...don't give up.