by DantesPeak » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 19:51:53
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarlosFerreira', 'O')K, let's get this straight. I've heard the news, and there has been a public speech by Bernanke and Paulson, they went to the Congress to ask for a You-are-free-from-jail card to hold these guys, plus Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Nice. Pretty much what you said.
So, coupled with the mounting cost of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus the whole economic turmoil and the mounting pressure from Peak Oil, the US Govt. might run the printers to essentially create money out of nothing. Inflation follows.
Thing is, Asian countries with dollar reserves are already dumping dollars worth less and less in the market. So, even more money than the one being created artificially to supress the need for imaginary money.
Dollar loses more and more value, so dropping the rates will evidently won't help. Somewhere ahead, they will have to face the grim reality (after the elections, do you think), and raise the rates. That will essentially paralyze an economy that's already in life support. Will kill it to reset.
So, if my thinking is right, do you think the US Govt might be giving itself a bailout by postponing the tough decisions and giving the problem to the next one?
As we say here in Portugal, last man out please turn off the lights...
Well put.
Basically the US succeeds because it is an empire, but an empire where the US dollar must be accepted to function.
The problem is not that other countries won't support the dollar, they will, but the price they want paid for that support. That price is higher interest rates.
Even then, the US is on the verge of having an unmanagable trade deficit (due to high energy prices) and all bailout schemes will eventually fail.
I had thought the US could differ the economic collapse until 2010, but apparently PO is not cooperating (net oil available to importers are falling fairly signficantly already). So the US dollar may stand for one more year, but that's about it.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.