[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'I')'m sorry.....OCS?

[aahala2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')ust now. CNBC, Bush says the OCS has 10 years of oil supply for
America.

21mbpd X 365= 7.7 billion/yr x 10 =77 billion

Where do they get such numbers?

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala2', '
')You've already shown how they got it. Multiplication.

If you want to claim say 10 years of oil supply, take the
daily useage and multiply by the number of days.

If they wanted to claim 20 years, then twice as much.

That's how they came up with the figure, I am NOT
kidding you. If you don't believe me, review the WMD issue.
Same method.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', 'I')'m sorry.....OCS?

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '
')Is that the WMD issue involving 550 TONS of yellow cake, among other nifty little items? Geeting a biiiit off topic I think.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', ' ') Of course that is an estimate of the undiscovered technically recoverable reserves.

[MonteQuest]

the market doesn't think much of his announcement. Oil is up.

[UncoveringTruths]

Dearth of Ships Delays Drilling of Offshore Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')r. Bush called on Congress Wednesday to end a longstanding federal ban on offshore drilling and open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil exploration, arguing that the steps were needed to lower gasoline prices and bolster national security. But even as oil trades at more than $135 a barrel — up from $68 a year ago — the world’s existing drill-ships are booked solid for the next five years. Some oil companies have been forced to postpone exploration while waiting for a drilling rig, executives and analysts said.

Demand is so high that shipbuilders, the biggest of whom are in Asia, have raised prices since last year by as much as $100 million a vessel to about half a billion dollars.

“The crunch on rigs is everywhere,” said Alberto Guimaraes, a senior executive at Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company that has discovered some of the most promising offshore oil but has been unable to get at it.

“Almost 100 percent of the oil companies are constrained in their investment program because there is no rig available,” he said.

As a result, drilling costs for some of the newest deepwater rigs in the Gulf of Mexico — the nation’s top source of domestic oil and natural gas supplies — have reached about $600,000 a day, compared with $150,000 a day in 2002.

[skeptik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'J')ust now. CNBC, Bush says the OCS has 10 years of oil supply for
America.

21mbpd X 365= 7.7 billion/yr x 10 =77 billion

Where do they get such numbers?

[ROCKMAN]

Even the oil industry can't provide a valid number. They may offer a big reserve "potential" (makes the share holders very happy to hear such pronoucements). I've been a petroleum geologist for 33 years and can tell you exactly what "potential" means in oil patch lingo: I can offer any number I want and you have no data to prove I'm wrong.

There are lots of examples I can offer to show you huge errors (both optimistic and pessimistic) when it comes to predicting "potential". Here's the best: The North Sea oil fields were a huge boom to the UK economy as well as the rest of the EU (and they blew the opportunity to modify their economy away from oil just like the US did when oil hit $10/bbl in 1986). About 25 billion bbl of oil produced the last I heard. But are you aware that the first major N Sea field was found with the 93rd well drilled out there? Not the 9th...not the 3rd....yes...the 93rd well. I've seen many fields discovered, drilled up and put on production. And even at that point I've seen ultimate recovery estimates be in error by 50% either way. On the other hand, my current client spent $148 million on a dry hole (yes...just one hole in the ground) last fall in the Deep Water Gulf of Mexico. Do you think they thought there was some good potential there or just didn't know how to get rid of so much money so fast. Potential...potential...potential...how I love to hate that word (as Cher once sang).

So when you here someone minimize or maximize "potential" reserves bear in mind: they can't tell you for sure IF oil exists under this spot or that spot but they can be very sure how much is or isn't there under that spot. That's because they use the word "potential" as opposed to the word "is". (Please...no Clinton jokes regarding the definition of "is"). Sorta like: I can't be sure if I have a mouse in my cupped hands but I'm sure he weighs 1.2 ounces...if he is actually there...or not. Maybe. I think. I'm almost sure. Oh, I know...I just got a report from the USMS (that's the Mouse Survey). They say it ways between 0.3 oz and 3.6 oz if, in fact, there is a mouse in my hands.

I've dealt with exploration geologist's BS for too long to take any numbers thown out as serious. And as far as GW helping out the oil patch it's like having Osama bin Laden help you buy an airplane tickert...please don't help us anymore.

[tsakach]

It could take at least a decade before these deepwater GOM resources start producing. Not including delays for availability of deepwater rigs, the average time to develop deepwater resources is 7.8 years.

Deepwater Concept Selection and Records Poster

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Where do they get such numbers?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', 'I')t could take at least a decade before these deepwater GOM resources start producing. Not including delays for availability of deepwater rigs, the average time to develop deepwater resources is 7.8 years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')Why is it so hard for people to accept the fact that there are likely significant deposits of oil on the OCS??

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')Why is it so hard for people to accept the fact that there are likely significant deposits of oil on the OCS??

[Plantagenet]

Far-sighted Mathew Simmons really had the best take on this, as he has had on other peak oil issues.

Simmons suggested 20 years ago that the US federal government should do detailed seismic on its OCS to inventory structures and identify prospective oil lease sale sites, so the land could be promptly leased when the OCS ban was overturned.

Sadly, Simmons' advice was ignored.

Now we have people like Sen. Harry "oil makes you sick" Reid in charge of Congress, and the delays are likely to continue even though almost anyone who doesn't have a government car is becoming painfully aware that the world is dealing with peak oil.

[MonteQuest]

Big error on my part here. What Bush actually said was that "experts estimate that the OCS can provide 10 yrs of America's current annual oil production." Not consumption. CNBC captioned it as "OCS could produce 10 years worth of oil."

I walked in just as it came up. After replaying the video I caught the error.

My bad.

5.1mbpd x 365=1.8 x 10 = 18 billion barrels

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25674997

[Windmills]

The sooner we start drilling everywhere, the sooner the public will figure out that it won't solve anything, and then we can move past this issue, perhaps on to the next useless solution. Let the loose the capitalist dogs. I'm tired of hearing them bark.

[Plantagenet]

No one knows if the OCS contains 18 billion barrels of oil (Bush's estimate), 77 billion barrels (Monte's just redacted estimate) or 116 billion barrels of oil (the uppermost USGS estimate).

Mathew Simmons is right......we should at least find out the scientific facts about the OCS.....where are the structures, how big are they, and how much oil is likely to be there.

IMHO, it was very short-sighted of the Congress to block all exploration of the OCS for 30 years.

Shouldn't the US Congress act promptly and at least approve finding out the basic scientific facts about our land?