[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat Bush actually said was that "experts estimate that the OCS can provide 10 yrs of America's current annual oil production."

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') IMHO, it was very short-sighted of the Congress to block all exploration of the OCS for 30 years.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
The numbers we want to see is how many barrels per day and when?

It's 1 to 2 mbpd in 2030 according to the EIA report on the OCS potential. About an hour or two of America's daily consumption in 2030 using EIA's projection of 22.8 mbpd.

22.8/24 = .95 barrels per hour

Not enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') IMHO, it was very short-sighted of the Congress to block all exploration of the OCS for 30 years.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') Its a simple fact that our modern society is largely based on infrastructure built using oil. Obviously, to maintain our modern society, with all its cultural, medical, and scientific blessings, we will continue to need energy. We will have to transition to alternative energies. Using more oil will inevitably be part of that transition. The only alternative is a massive die-off.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') Its a simple fact that our modern society is largely based on infrastructure built using oil. Obviously, to maintain our modern society, with all its cultural, medical, and scientific blessings, we will continue to need energy. We will have to transition to alternative energies. Using more oil will inevitably be part of that transition. The only alternative is a massive die-off.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')Thats why I'm hoping we will successfully transition to alternative energies --- I'm hoping to have the intellectual pleasure of seeing what other limiting factor appears after peak oil.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ')Thats why I'm hoping we will successfully transition to alternative energies --- I'm hoping to have the intellectual pleasure of seeing what other limiting factor appears after peak oil.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') You lost me there, MonteQuest. I don't think either locating places to crap or global climate change are likely to cause a die-off.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', ' ') You lost me there, MonteQuest. I don't think either locating places to crap or global climate change are likely to cause a die-off.

[KevO]

erm. hello?
Isn't this electioneering?
all vote Republican coz they'll offshore drill and let us drive hummers again.
I tell ya, optimists are the satans of the world

[ROCKMAN]

Plantagenet,

Not picking on you in particular as others have made the same statement: there has not been a ban on drilling in the OCS. Since 1981 thousands of wells have been drilled in the OCS and have produced billions of bbl of oil and trillions of cf of natural gas. Today almost 20% of US oil production comes from those wells drilled during this time period. There are just certain sections that have been off limits.

Not to pick on the boys with the Survey (some of my classmates went to work for them) but they have very limited experience in such matters and, even worse, virtually no hard data to work with. See my post above if you're interested in my opinion of anyone's estimate of "potential". But if you want to develop your own idea of reserve potential do a quick search on the billions of bbl of oil that have already been produced along the Cal coastline (yes…at one time coastal Cal was one of the biggest oil producing regions in the world) and the billions of bbl of oil already produced off the east coast of N. America (being the offshore Canadian Flds which is about to go into a big leasing phase by the Cn. gov’t)

For those who don't think it matter if we drill in the OCS then I assume you would be satisfied if we had stopped drilling in the Gulf of Mexico 30 years ago. All your arguments would have applied just as well to this stretch of the OCS as well as to the currently unavailable areas. Thus you don't see a problem with us not having produced all those reserves or loosing the 18% of US oil production we currently receive from the GOM. If we hadn't drilled in the GOM we would be where we are now 10 or 15 years earlier and all the right wing nuts would have been blaming Bill Clinton and his buddies with Big Oil for the high gasoline prices.

Again: no one can predict with any degree of reliability how much oil may or not be in those unexplored areas. It’s as dangerous to assume there are big reserves out there as it is to assume there are none.

[Duende]

Bush is holding a news conference at 10:20 EST today, 7-15-08, on the state of the energy situation and the economy. Then he's going to be taking questions.

I CAN'T WAIT to hear what he says.

[Valkyrie]

It will just be more of the usual "the Democrats won't let us drill" BS.

[frankthetank]

I wonder if he's finally going to tell us about Peak Oil and the consequences we face if we don't all start driving scooters, riding bicycles and turning our lawns in to corn fields?

[jlw61]

If he was too honest to lie (like Jimmy Carter) then I'd be very interested. As it is, I'm likely to believe something closer to the opposite of what he says.

My prediction: We need to drill more. Quit spending so much. Congress is stupid. Vote republican. Less skin on HBO.

[Micki]

Gold up $10 DJ currently 100points down. Market is anticipating something good

What are the bets?

Open up emergency reserves?
Introduce us to Amero?
Confiscate all food as it is needed for fuel?
Make Mandarin mandatory second language?

Personally I am expecting some fine ol' Texas Long Horn Bullsh...

[pup55]

Here it is, an hour before the press conference ( I am clairvoyant).

a. The economy is not in recession, but growth is too slow.
b. You do not have anything to fear from these bank collapses. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be propped up. The FDIC insured accounts in Indy mac will be honored. We will just add a little more to the deficit.
c. We support a strong dollar. The current trading situation vs. the Euro is just temporary.
d. We're sorry energy prices are too high. If you would just let us drill on the outer continental shelf, everything would be fine.
e. Most of these problems are the fault of the Democratic congress.
f. We will continue our fight against terrorism.


That's about 10 minutes' worth.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'H')ere it is, an hour before the press conference ( I am clairvoyant).

a. The economy is not in recession, but growth is too slow.
b. You do not have anything to fear from these bank collapses. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will be propped up. The FDIC insured accounts in Indy mac will be honored. We will just add a little more to the deficit.
c. We support a strong dollar. The current trading situation vs. the Euro is just temporary.
d. We're sorry energy prices are too high. If you would just let us drill on the outer continental shelf, everything would be fine.
e. Most of these problems are the fault of the Democratic congress.
f. We will continue our fight against terrorism.


That's about 10 minutes' worth.

[Micki]

Don't think so PUP.

Breaking news on Reuters;
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ernanke: Many financial markets and institutions remain under considerable stress, Fed expects below-trend growth for remainder of 2008, gradual pick-up over next 2 years 10:02am EDT