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Energy and the Mother of Invention

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 01:42:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')From peak to trough, MPV went from 120% to 93%, a difference of 29%.


From peak to trough MPG went from 145 to 100, a difference of 45%.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom peak to trough, gasoline prices went from $2.92 to $1.31, a difference of 123%. The magnitude of the price swings in gasoline are enough to cover the magnitude of the changes in MPV four times over.


But still the gas wasn't cheap. From 1981 to 1999, the average price was $1.77 during the MPV spike.

From 1950 to 1980, the average price was $2.00/gal.

29 cents a gallon cheaper is going to cause that spike?

Not.

In real time dollars at the pump a the time, the swing was $1.38 to $1.14=$.24 cents.

Triple what the pump price was in the 70's.

How many gas buyers adjust for inflation?

Hardly any. They didn't know $1.38 was $2.92 or $1.14 was $1.31.

Hell, they don't know it now. Look at how hard it has been to get people to grasp that gas, until recentl,y has been cheaper than in 1980 even though it is triple again at the pump!


And what's more, the $2.92 high was a one year high dropping 41% the next year, so this 123% swing is misleading.

Look at the numbers:

1980 1.25 2.91 1981 1.38 2.92 1982 1.26 2.51 1983 1.20 2.33 1984 1.18 2.18 1985 1.17 2.09 1986 0.89 1.56 1987 0.91 1.54 1988 0.91 1.48 1989 0.98 1.53 1990 1.13 1.66 1991 1.10 1.56 1992 1.09 1.49 1993 1.07 1.43 1994 1.07 1.40 1995 1.11 1.40 1996 1.20 1.47 1997 1.20 1.44 1998 1.03 1.22 1999 1.14 1.31

The cheap gas ($.50/gal drop) only came in 86 where we see a slight rise in MPV on the chart. 81-82 drop is recession influenced and hard to correlate to price or MPG.

What's more, when MPG went flat, so did MPV.

When MPG went down, so did MPV while the price was heading down $.20/gal. 97-98

The red and blue line mirror one another.

Give it up.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Mon 14 Jul 2008, 02:01:51, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 01:46:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')I think even in a situation where the energy supply is declining a nation could see an increase in economic growth over a sufficiently large time period given the limiting effects on GDP of current fossil fuel use and the ease in efficiency increases.


Ever here of the Rule of 70?

What decline rate do you see for oil?

At the current 5.2% decline of existing fields, that means in about 13 years post peak, we have 50% less oil.

First year you have 5.2% decline, plus 2% for growth, leaving a 7.2% shortfall.

Next year, you have a 12.4% shortfall and so on.

We can increase efficiency every year to offset decline and provide for growth?

When pigs fly!
Efficiency increases alone probably could, but we're more likely to see efficiency increase along w/ replacement.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 02:06:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')Efficiency increases alone probably could, but we're more likely to see efficiency increase along w/ replacement.


Efficiency alone? :roll:

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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 03:20:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he red and blue line mirror one another.

49 to 69 - the red and blue lines are moving in opposite directions.
69 to 79 - red line is more or less flat. blue line is all over the place.
79 to 81 - the red and blue lines are moving in opposite directions.
81 to 91 - the red and blue line mirror one another.
91 to 99 - the red line is more of less flat. blue line is rising.

I still cannot fathom how you can say the red and blue lines mirror each other when they only mirror each other for 10 out of 50 years. You appear to be suffering from Observer bias:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')bserver bias
The related social-science term observer bias is error introduced into measurement when observers overemphasize [data] they expect to find and fail to notice [data] they do not expect.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 03:20:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')Efficiency increases alone probably could, but we're more likely to see efficiency increase along w/ replacement.


Efficiency alone? :roll:

When pigs fly!
At a ~17mpg average, doubling fuel efficiency to a whopping ~40mpg(equivalent) isn't exactly flying bovine territory. :roll: I suppose if we can't do what France has done two decades before we see ~50% oil production, given your assumptions, we deserve what we get. :lol:

Not that we would see ~50% in 13 years, at least according to TOD. But again, it's nice to see unrealistic assumptions from you again. ;)
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 04:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'E')fficiency increases alone probably could
With a probability of 0%? Efficiency has a limit. If efficiency ever reaches the theoretical limit, then efficiency improvements must stop.

As you say, replacement might, but that will ultimately suffer the same fate as gasoline - unless the raw resource that it comes from is only consumed at or below its renewal rate, and it doesn't take more energy (which must also be derived from resources at or below their renewal rates) than it provides, and any other resources used in its production are not consumed at or below their renewal rates.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 04:34:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'E')fficiency increases alone probably could
With a probability of 0%? Efficiency has a limit. If efficiency ever reaches the theoretical limit, then efficiency improvements must stop.
Sure it does. But at a fleet average of ~17mpg, we have a long way to go before we start bumping up against that limit, and short of deliberately shooting ourselves in the foot, will see ~40mpg(equivalent) by the time oil hits ~50% of peak production.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')s you say, replacement might, but that will ultimately suffer the same fate as gasoline - unless the raw resource that it comes from is only consumed at or below its renewal rate, and it doesn't take more energy (which must also be derived from resources at or below their renewal rates) than it provides, and any other resources used in its production are not consumed at or below their renewal rates.
All true. As for the specifics, that depends on the resource in question.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 04:41:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'E')fficiency increases alone probably could
With a probability of 0%? Efficiency has a limit. If efficiency ever reaches the theoretical limit, then efficiency improvements must stop.
Sure it does. But at a fleet average of ~17mpg, we have a long way to go before we start bumping up against that limit
But we will hit that limit (unless we alter direction or collapse first), so efficiency improvements alone couldn't do it.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 04:44:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'B')ut we will hit that limit (unless we alter direction or collapse first), so efficiency improvements alone couldn't do it.
I doubt it! At 50% depletion we only need a fleet average of ~40mpge, so unless we suddenly forget how to do what France had done ~5 years ago, we could keep efficiency increases in line w/ oil supply decreases up to ~50%.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 05:25:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'B')ut we will hit that limit (unless we alter direction or collapse first), so efficiency improvements alone couldn't do it.
I doubt it! At 50% depletion we only need a fleet average of ~40mpge, so unless we suddenly forget how to do what France had done ~5 years ago, we could keep efficiency increases in line w/ oil supply decreases up to ~50%.
You doubt what? That no practical limit will be hit, in the foreseeable future, or that even if a limit is hit, efficiency improvements could not, alone, make up for decline and allow for growth?

With no growth, 50% could be reached in 20 years or less, a lot sooner, with growth. It takes around 15 years to completely replace the car fleet, so even a concerted effort starting now is hardly likely to make up for decline and allow growth in even that short time.

You have to be the world's most optimistic optimist to believe that it's possible for efficiencies alone to compensate for decline and allow growth, post peak.

But, hey, I'm told that miracles do happen.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 05:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'B')ut we will hit that limit (unless we alter direction or collapse first), so efficiency improvements alone couldn't do it.
I doubt it! At 50% depletion we only need a fleet average of ~40mpge, so unless we suddenly forget how to do what France had done ~5 years ago, we could keep efficiency increases in line w/ oil supply decreases up to ~50%.
You doubt what? That no practical limit will be hit, in the foreseeable future, or that even if a limit is hit, efficiency improvements could not, alone, make up for decline and allow for growth?
I doubt that efficiency improvements couldn't offset oil decline up to 50%. Even past that depending, although at some point replacement is required.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')ith no growth, 50% could be reached in 20 years or less, a lot sooner, with growth. It takes around 15 years to completely replace the car fleet, so even a concerted effort starting now is hardly likely to make up for decline and allow growth in even that short time.
We wouldn't have to completely replace the current fleet given it's current makeup w/ plenty of cars getting ~30-40mpg available from ~1980-today, we would just need to replace the most inefficient percent. The H3's, Expeditions, Rams, and whatnot that currently have taken a dive in terms of value. And beaters from the 80s that were worth a few hundred two years ago are now going for 1,000+. In terms of growth, oil consumption in America is going negative these days, so I don't think we'll have to worry about that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'Y')ou have to be the world's most optimistic optimist to believe that it's possible for efficiencies alone to compensate for decline and allow growth, post peak.

But, hey, I'm told that miracles do happen.How is it optimistic to account for a possibility? I never said it was probably, just possible. I think it would hard, to say the least, to prove w/o a doubt that it was impossible.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 05:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') doubt that efficiency improvements couldn't offset oil decline up to 50%. Even past that depending, although at some point replacement is required.
I agree with that last bit.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')ith no growth, 50% could be reached in 20 years or less, a lot sooner, with growth. It takes around 15 years to completely replace the car fleet, so even a concerted effort starting now is hardly likely to make up for decline and allow growth in even that short time.
We wouldn't have to completely replace the current fleet given it's current makeup w/ plenty of cars getting ~30-40mpg available from ~1980-today, we would just need to replace the most inefficient percent. The H3's, Expeditions, Rams, and whatnot that currently have taken a dive in terms of value.
So you want the current owners to trash them? Good luck with that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'H')ow is it optimistic to account for a possibility? I never said it was probably, just possible. I think it would hard, to say the least, to prove w/o a doubt that it was impossible.
Indeed. Except that you've already conceded that, at some stage, it would also take replacement. So it is impossible for efficiencies alone to compensate for decline and allow for economic growth.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 06:05:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')e wouldn't have to completely replace the current fleet given it's current makeup w/ plenty of cars getting ~30-40mpg available from ~1980-today, we would just need to replace the most inefficient percent. The H3's, Expeditions, Rams, and whatnot that currently have taken a dive in terms of value.
So you want the current owners to trash them? Good luck with that.
I never said that, but I love a good strawman! ;) There's a world of difference between trashing something, and using it a lot less. :)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')ndeed. Except that you've already conceded that, at some stage, it would also take replacement. So it is impossible for efficiencies alone to compensate for decline and allow for economic growth.
Conceded? I never maintained otherwise. :lol: It's possible over the term I was referring to for efficiency increases to make up for supply decreases. I never said it was possible perpetually. :P
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 06:41:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'W')e wouldn't have to completely replace the current fleet given it's current makeup w/ plenty of cars getting ~30-40mpg available from ~1980-today, we would just need to replace the most inefficient percent. The H3's, Expeditions, Rams, and whatnot that currently have taken a dive in terms of value.
So you want the current owners to trash them? Good luck with that.
I never said that, but I love a good strawman! ;) There's a world of difference between trashing something, and using it a lot less. :)
I agree, but you said "we would just need to replace" those inefficient vehicles. What definition of "replace" are you using?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') never said it was possible perpetually. :P
You said it was possible, but didn't give a time scale. By default, that means for ever. What period did you mean to include?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 06:53:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') agree, but you said "we would just need to replace" those inefficient vehicles. What definition of "replace" are you using?
Use for the most part. Instead of commuting to work in a Excursion getting ~10mpg, do so in a Echo getting ~40mpg. That doesn't mean the Excursion needs to be junked, just that it could be driven less.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') never said it was possible perpetually. :P
You said it was possible, but didn't give a time scale. By default, that means for ever. What period did you mean to include?
I never included a time period. My response was to MQ's post, which specified a depletion amount...$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t the current 5.2% decline of existing fields, that means in about 13 years post peak, we have 50% less oil.
And then you hopped in. :P
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 07:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I') agree, but you said "we would just need to replace" those inefficient vehicles. What definition of "replace" are you using?
Use for the most part. Instead of commuting to work in a Excursion getting ~10mpg, do so in a Echo getting ~40mpg. That doesn't mean the Excursion needs to be junked, just that it could be driven less.
So we increase the number of cars, with all the energy and oil that took, in order to reduce oil consumption? Doesn't sound rational to me. It'll reduce operating costs but the start up costs may overwhelm that too much in the early stages of your plan.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') never said it was possible perpetually. :P
You said it was possible, but didn't give a time scale. By default, that means for ever. What period did you mean to include?
I never included a time period. My response was to MQ's post, which specified a depletion amount...$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')t the current 5.2% decline of existing fields, that means in about 13 years post peak, we have 50% less oil.And then you hopped in. :PSo you think it is possible for 13 years, to replace declines with efficiencies, which would also allow for economic growth? How likely do you think that possibility is?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 09:45:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o we increase the number of cars, with all the energy and oil that took, in order to reduce oil consumption? Doesn't sound rational to me. It'll reduce operating costs but the start up costs may overwhelm that too much in the early stages of your plan.
Not entirely. This first part of my "plan", really just an observation, is that older vehicles that get decent mileage appreciate in price as demand for 'em increase. Manufacturers also offer vehicles that can get substantially more than the ~17mpg average, and compared to the ~10% energy penalty when building a new vehicle, reducing fuel consumption by ~30-80% is worthwhile in terms of energy consumption.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o you think it is possible for 13 years, to replace declines with efficiencies, which would also allow for economic growth? How likely do you think that possibility is?
More or less. Across the board changes in driving habits alone could cut consumption in half, and from there slight tweaks to the use of the existing fleet would be all we need, not that we couldn't build more fuel efficient vehicles as well. As for the probability of it happening precisely like that, I would say it's low since that's totally ignoring replacement, something which is happening now via mass-transit/cycling/moving.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 14:54:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'N')ot entirely. This first part of my "plan", really just an observation, is that older vehicles that get decent mileage appreciate in price as demand for 'em increase. Manufacturers also offer vehicles that can get substantially more than the ~17mpg average, and compared to the ~10% energy penalty when building a new vehicle, reducing fuel consumption by ~30-80% is worthwhile in terms of energy consumption.
So how likely is it that car owners will follow your plan, buy another, more efficient, vehicle, whilst hanging on to their old beast, in order to have the effect you expect. It would certainly be a boost for the new car industry, though the opposite for the used car market. But is it likely to happen, and in a time appropriate for your plan?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o you think it is possible for 13 years, to replace declines with efficiencies, which would also allow for economic growth? How likely do you think that possibility is?
More or less. Across the board changes in driving habits alone could cut consumption in half, and from there slight tweaks to the use of the existing fleet would be all we need, not that we couldn't build more fuel efficient vehicles as well. As for the probability of it happening precisely like that, I would say it's low since that's totally ignoring replacement, something which is happening now via mass-transit/cycling/moving.
I don't see it happening anywhere near quickly enough, and, in New Zealand, there isn't much more capacity on public transit, nor the ability to walk or cycle to work (which is usually quite a distance away).
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 15:00:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')I still cannot fathom how you can say the red and blue lines mirror each other when they only mirror each other for 10 out of 50 years.


Simple. The correlation for MPG versus MPV only matters 1981 to 1999 where they do mirror each other almost blip for blip.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 14 Jul 2008, 15:09:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o you think it is possible for 13 years, to replace declines with efficiencies, which would also allow for economic growth? How likely do you think that possibility is?
More or less.


Troll, do you see an IPO coming out for "efficiency" as a tradeable commodity? A commodity with a controllable production rate?

Because, unless it is, for you to count on it as a source of energy to fuel the future is a departure from reality.
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