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Energy and the Mother of Invention

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 06:05:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'W')TF I failed?
Afraid so. I'm not sure where you got those figures but they must be wrong. The US suffered a recession during that time, so how did GDP grow in each year? According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP contracted in 1980 and 1982. Oil consumption (and energy consumption in total) declined as a result of an economic slowdown, which probably had many contributory factors. Inflation was very high at that time. You claimed that the US could purposefully and significantly reduce its energy consumption, at this time, without causing a recession. How much do you think it could reduce it, without triggering (an even greater) recession, given the current economy, and for how long would that help?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'W')ell thank you for your general theorizing.
You're welcome.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I') was pointing to something that actually happened, you know, in reality?
In the piece you responded to, I was generally theorizing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'Y')ou see the glut I was talking about was not caused by efficiency gains. It was caused by OPEC opening up the taps and flooding the market with cheap oil.
If the glut is caused by efficiency gains, cheaper oil would ensue. Would people likely use more of it, again, do you think? This is assuming the efficiency gains are greater than the decline. If not, then there would be no extra energy anyway, in which to build the replacement infrastructure.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 06:14:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')his is Jevons' Pardox? I think not:
Image

I thought we'd knocked this one on the head. The number of vehicles per household rose (and the total number of vehicles rose). So a fall in GPV doesn't tell the whole consumption story.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 09:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tsakach', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he fact still remains, it wasn't cheap gas that caused MPV to go up as kublkan posits.


What are you attributing to the increase in MPV? Jevon's Paradox?


Since as MPG rose, MPV rose in response, and since cheap gas has been shown clearly to not be the culprit, what else would you atribute it to?

"In the economics literature it is … well known that increased efficiency in the use of a resource leads over time to greater use of that resource and not less use of it"

With greater miles per gallon, we drove more miles. 125% more miles even while population only grew 27%.

We then built bigger vehicles, i.e. the SUV and bought more of them.

With greater lighting efficiency, we installed more lights.

With greater appliance efficiency, we bought more than one refrigerator and built them bigger.

With more efficient A/C and heat we built bigger houses.

The more efficient we become, the more we consume.

Jevons Paradox.

Technology also increases the speed at which we consume resources.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 10:14:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Here. Gasoline prices were cut nearly in half during the 1980s.


Cut in half ? :roll:

You cherry pick a high and low and claim cut in half? During the 1980's gas prices doubled from the 1970's where MPV, MPG, GPV were in concert.

Average gas price during the 1970's was $.52/gal. It was $1.11/gal during the 1980's.

From the high of $1.38 a gallon in one year, gas prices only dropped on average only to $1.06/gal ($.32) until 1990 with the biggest one year decline in 1986 of only $.28/gallon.

Again, where is this cheap gas that caused everyone to start driving more?

It doesn't exist.

1970 0.36
1971 0.36
1972 0.36
1973 0.39
1974 0.52
1975 0.57
1976 0.59
1977 0.62
1978 0.63
1979 0.86
1980 1.25
1981 1.38
1982 1.26
1983 1.20
1984 1.18
1985 1.17
1986 0.89
1987 0.91
1988 0.91
1989 0.98
1990 1.13
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 12:55:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'W')TF I failed?
Afraid so. I'm not sure where you got those figures but they must be wrong.
LOL! Now my figures are wrong. I confirmed with 3 different sources, they all say the same thing. Sorry Tony, but your desperate grasping for straws is what has failed:
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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')n the piece you responded to, I was generally theorizing.
In the piece you responded to, I was talking about reality.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 13:17:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')his is Jevons' Pardox? I think not:
Image

I thought we'd knocked this one on the head. The number of vehicles per household rose (and the total number of vehicles rose). So a fall in GPV doesn't tell the whole consumption story.
The source you provided only goes back to 1988. And fuel efficiency stopped increasing in 1991. But lets use those numbers anyway. 148 million vehicles in 1988. 151 million in 1991. That means the number of vehicles increase by about 2%. Assuming a steady increase in vehicles, multiply that by 4 to 8% to cover the missing years. If you increased the amount of gas used by 8%, it still does not significantly alter the numbers. Sorry Tony, but you've knocked nothing on its head....
Last edited by kublikhan on Sat 12 Jul 2008, 13:38:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 13:36:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Here. Gasoline prices were cut nearly in half during the 1980s.
Cut in half ? :roll:
You cherry pick a high and low and claim cut in half? During the 1980's gas prices doubled from the 1970's where MPV, MPG, GPV were in concert.
Average gas price during the 1970's was $.52/gal. It was $1.11/gal during the 1980's.
From the high of $1.38 a gallon in one year, gas prices only dropped on average only to $1.06/gal ($.32) until 1990 with the biggest one year decline in 1986 of only $.28/gallon.
Again, where is this cheap gas that caused everyone to start driving more?
It doesn't exist.

(2008 dollars)
1974 - $1.90
1975 - $2.50
1979 - $2.10
1981 - $3.41
1999 - $1.20

If you look at when the price of gas spiked, it is also corresponds to when MPV tanked. And if you look at when the price of gas started falling, MPV starts rising again. Funny how that works huh?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 15:14:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')f you look at when the price of gas spiked, it is also corresponds to when MPV tanked. And if you look at when the price of gas started falling, MPV starts rising again. Funny how that works huh?


Gas only dropped $.10 to $.20 cents per gallon over 5 years, dude.

The "tank"was called a depression. The worse since 1930.

And if you look a the chart, you see that gas prices peaked in 1981. MPV did not tank, it soared as MPG soared.

Another corny desperately grasping at straws.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 15:24:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')2008 dollars)
1974 - $1.90
1975 - $2.50
1979 - $2.10
1981 - $3.41
1999 - $1.20


What this? Bigger numbers to make up for the lack facts? And bogus numbers to boot? Gas did not jump $.60/gal from 1974 to 75. Nor did it drop $2.21 from 1981 to 1999. This is troll tactics.

Actual average pump prices from EIA data:

1974 0.52
1975 0.57
1979 0.86
1981 1.38
1999 1.14
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 15:39:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')f you look at when the price of gas spiked, it is also corresponds to when MPV tanked. And if you look at when the price of gas started falling, MPV starts rising again. Funny how that works huh?

Gas only dropped $.10 to $.20 cents per gallon over 5 years, dude.
The "tank"was called a depression. The worse since 1930.
And if you look a the chart, you see that gas prices peaked in 1981. MPV did not tank, it soared as MPG soared.
Another corny desperately grasping at straws.
This is from the EIA:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he real price of gasoline dropped 43 percent between 1981 and 1986, and continued a slow decline for 2 years more.
EIA

MPV did not tank in 1981? LOL. What data are you looking at? From 1978-1981, MPV tanked. High gas prices pure and simple. Then from 1981- MPV increased. When gas prices dropped. Take off your rose colored glasses Monte and look at the data. It is staring you in the face, you just don't want to see it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '(')2008 dollars)
1974 - $1.90
1975 - $2.50
1979 - $2.10
1981 - $3.41
1999 - $1.20


What this? Bigger numbers to make up for the lack facts? And bogus numbers to boot? Gas did not jump $.60/gal from 1974 to 75. Nor did it drop $2.21 from 1981 to 1999. This is troll tactics.

Actual average pump prices from EIA data:

1974 0.52
1975 0.57
1979 0.86
1981 1.38
1999 1.14 WTF troll tactics? Don't blame me that you didn't adjust for inflation. Check out the quote from the EIA above if you don't believe my numbers.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 16:48:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'L')OL! Now my figures are wrong.
I'm afraid so. Didn't you wonder why, despite a recession, GDP apparently grew during the whole of that recession? The figures are wrong, or misleading. The government's own figures for real GDP do reflect that recession, your figures don't. I wonder which are a true reflection of the situation?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')n the piece you responded to, I was generally theorizing.
In the piece you responded to, I was talking about reality.
You were talking about your opinion of what reality showed.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 17:07:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'L')OL! Now my figures are wrong.
I'm afraid so. Didn't you wonder why, despite a recession, GDP apparently grew during the whole of that recession? The figures are wrong, or misleading. The government's own figures for real GDP do reflect that recession, your figures don't. I wonder which are a true reflection of the situation?
What do the figures show for 82-84?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')n the piece you responded to, I was generally theorizing.
In the piece you responded to, I was talking about reality.
You were talking about your opinion of what reality showed. Right. And what is your opinion of what reality showed?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 17:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'S')orry Tony, but you've knocked nothing on its head....
Drat, I thought I had. After all, consumption per household went up, not down. Oh well.

The (rebound) effect is not as profound as I thought it would be, but I found figures for consumption (I think). Finished gasoline figures are from the EIA and population figures are from Nation Master.
    1981 pop 229m gas 2.40 bp barrels per capita 10.48
    1986 pop 240m gas 2.56 bp barrels per capita 10.69
    1991 pop 253m gas 2.62 bp barrels per capita 10.37
    1996 pop 269m gas 2.89 bp barrels per capita 10.72


I couldn't figure out which of the products in the EIA data was diesel, but going just with gasoline, it looks like the increases in efficiency had some effect up to 1991, but per capita consumption was back up above the 1986 level by 1996. But it's interesting that, even with a recession in the middle, consumption went up between 1981 and 1986, with efficiency effects actually kicking in after that, for a while.

So, during that 15 year period, consumption, per capita, went up, not down.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 17:39:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '1')981 pop 229m gas 2.40 bp barrels per capita 10.48
1986 pop 240m gas 2.56 bp barrels per capita 10.69
1991 pop 253m gas 2.62 bp barrels per capita 10.37
1996 pop 269m gas 2.89 bp barrels per capita 10.72

I couldn't figure out which of the products in the EIA data was diesel, but going just with gasoline, it looks like the increases in efficiency had some effect up to 1991, but per capita consumption was back up above the 1986 level by 1996. But it's interesting that, even with a recession in the middle, consumption went up between 1981 and 1986, with efficiency effects actually kicking in after that, for a while.

So, during that 15 year period, consumption, per capita, went up, not down.
Right. But MPG actually fell after 91. By 2000, MPG was actually lower than in 91. Therefore you can't blame Jevons' Paradox for that. During the 81-91 period when MPG was actually increasing, per capita use is decreasing(price of oil crashed in 86, that explains that blip up).
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 18:12:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'R')ight. But MPG actually fell after 91. By 2000, MPG was actually lower than in 91. Therefore you can't blame Jevons' Paradox for that. During the 81-91 period when MPG was actually increasing, per capita use is decreasing(price of oil crashed in 86, that explains that blip up).
So in your opinion it wasn't Jevons Paradox. In others' it was. After 91, the efficiencies went more into bigger and faster cars, so average MPG was bound to drop but that doesn't mean efficiencies didn't continue.

Overall, consumption increased, per capita. In the end, that's what we want to avoid. It's impossible to do until the supply restrictions do it for us. After that, there ain't no extra energy to do what we need to do.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 18:17:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'R')ight. But MPG actually fell after 91. By 2000, MPG was actually lower than in 91. Therefore you can't blame Jevons' Paradox for that. During the 81-91 period when MPG was actually increasing, per capita use is decreasing(price of oil crashed in 86, that explains that blip up).
So in your opinion it wasn't Jevons Paradox. In others' it was. After 91, the efficiencies went more into bigger and faster cars, so average MPG was bound to drop but that doesn't mean efficiencies didn't continue.

Overall, consumption increased, per capita. In the end, that's what we want to avoid. It's impossible to do until the supply restrictions do it for us. After that, there ain't no extra energy to do what we need to do.
If that is your opinion, then how do you explain what happened in Europe with their falling oil usage?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:00:35

This is from the EIA:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he real price of gasoline dropped 43 percent between 1981 and 1986, and continued a slow decline for 2 years more.


More cherry-picking of data. Very misleading.

This should read: The real price of gasoline dropped 43 percent from a one year high in 1981 thru 1986, with a 31% drop in 85-86 alone, and then was flat for two years (87-88) before once again rising.

1981 -$1.38/gal x 43% = $.59 or $.79/gal by 1986.

The biggest drops were 81-82 = 9% and 85-86 = 31%

However, the EIA numbers for 1986 are $.89/gal. Easy to have that much margin of error.

And notice that 85-86 is when MPV & MPG may have rose upwards a bit due to the 31% cheaper gas. That's the only small blip one can atrribute to cheaper gas and it still was only $.28/gal cheaper. MPG probably had the most impact on MPV given that paltry change in price.

1981 1.38
1982 1.26
1983 1.20
1984 1.18
1985 1.17
1986 0.89

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')PV did not tank in 1981? LOL. What data are you looking at?


No, it started to rise. The chart I posted.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom 1978-1981, MPV tanked. High gas prices pure and simple.


No, economic depression. Worse since the 1930's. Pure and simple.

Gas only rose $.23/gal in 1979, $.39/gal in 1980, and $.13/gal in 1981.

It rises that much in a day or a week today.

1978 0.63
1979 0.86
1980 1.25
1981 1.38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen from 1981- MPV increased. When gas prices dropped. Take off your rose colored glasses Monte and look at the data. It is staring you in the face, you just don't want to see it.


Then from 1981- MPV increased. When MPG rose and gas prices rose. Take off your rose colored glasses Kublikan and look at the data. It is staring you in the face, you just don't want to see it.

1978 0.63
1979 0.86
1980 1.25
1981 1.38
1982 1.26
1983 1.20
1984 1.18
1985 1.17
1986 0.89

Gas prices rose from $.63/gal to a $1.26/gal even after declining from the high of $1.38.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')TF troll tactics? Don't blame me that you didn't adjust for inflation.

Why would you adjust for inflation? Your point was that cheap oil and cheap gas caused MPV to rise.

Then don't we need to look at what people were paying then in real dollars to them?

Gasoline during the 80's was triple what it was in the 1970's.

It never ever got cheaper than the seventies.

Why didn't cheap gas then cause MPV to rise?

Cheap gas is a dog that won't hunt because it doesn't exist.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:14:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:10:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '[')list]1981 pop 229m gas 2.40 bp barrels per capita 10.48
1986 pop 240m gas 2.56 bp barrels per capita 10.69
1991 pop 253m gas 2.62 bp barrels per capita 10.37
1996 pop 269m gas 2.89 bp barrels per capita 10.72So, during that 15 year period, consumption, per capita, went up, not down.
year gas pop capita
1978 2705 222,585 12.1
1979 2568 225,055 11.4
1980 2408 227,225 10.6
1981 2404 229,466 10.5
1991 2623 252,981 10.37

And during this 13 year period, per capital went down, not up.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')fter 91, the efficiencies went more into bigger and faster cars, so average MPG was bound to drop but that doesn't mean efficiencies didn't continue.
If you are disregarding MPG as a measure of efficiency gains, what metric are you using to measure the efficiency gain?
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:14:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hy would you adjust for inflation? Your point was that cheap oil and cheap gas caused MPV to rise. Then don't we need to look at what people were paying then in real dollars to them?
Gasoline during the 80's was triple what it was in the 1970's.
It never ever got cheaper than the seventies.
Why didn't cheap gas then cause MPV to rise?
Cheap gas is a dog that won't hunt because it doesn't exist.
After all of your Economics 101 lectures, you seriously have to ask why you need to adjust for inflation? :(
Here is it in a nutshell: $.20 in 1970 was worth a lot more than $.20 in 2005.
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Re: Energy and the Mother of Invention

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 12 Jul 2008, 19:17:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ')If you are disregarding MPG as a measure of efficiency gains, what metric are you using to measure the efficiency gain?


He is not disregarding it. With bigger cars and bigger engines, the MPG dropped even with efficiency gains.
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