by zeke » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 16:34:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'ā')¦But not even the most pessimistic analysis got a value of lower than 1 for nuclear's EROEI.
Well, that is sweet then. I just skimmed one of the pages you linked and it seems the actual numbers require an awful lot of "correcting" and "massaging" and that the numbers may be sexed up or down depending upon what the calculating person or entity wants to portray.
Let's knock around some other concepts, then.
Oil has given a return of 100 to 1...I'm sure it's not that now, but you can see that the closer it gets to 1:1, the stupider it is to pursue it. Put into every day words, the closer it
requires one barrel of oil to
recover and refine one barrel, the less sense it makes to continue that activity.
So, let's go with 1.86:1. I'd say if when we're getting oil out of the ground and the rate of return gets that low, things aren't going to be pretty. We won't have the kind of energy (or financial return) which has allowed us to "suspend the laws of physics" as we've done in our minds for generations. Life will be tougher then.
And as for some of the estimates being either pessimistic or optimistic, something stinks in there. Either they're doing an honest, exhaustive calculation or they aren't. Sounds like they might not be. Sounds like they might not WANT to factor in all the factors. Since the estimates vary wildly from one another, it sounds like some are playing fast and loose with the numbers to make things LOOK better with a little mathematical hoobidie-hoo.
Nature doesn't play that game. If you need 1400 calories per day to survive and all you come up with is 800 calories per day, you are going to die. period.
Right now, oil is relatively plentiful and is used to build and maintain all kinds of OTHER things; one of those other things is nuclear power plants.
If we build one today, and it lasts until 50 years from now, when most people agree that oil will be far less plentiful than it is today, how are you going to maintain and dismantle it?
Bikes? Horses? Wind?
If oil is really scarce then, society or governments will have to make some unhappy choices. What to cut? Sewerage? Defense? Agriculture? Fire, Police and Ambulance?
What about political corruption? Suppose some regional Boss decides he wants his own fleet of Humvee's to patrol "his" empire, and he hijacks oil meant for civic purposes?
Will oil be earmarked for running the nuke plants? For handling unforeseen nuke plant accidents?
What happens if, in the oil-poor future, we get our own Chernobyl, owing to lack of equipment or energy, or skilled manpower, and we have a containment and evactuation scenario?
Relocating people and industry from that immediate area is going to require energy, too; more so than if they'd been able to live and work peacefully by the olde nuke plante throughout it's lifespan.
Also, while the nuke plant is operational, it still takes equipment powered by oil to contribute to its continued operation, and the more oil it takes to recover the oil used as fuel, the higher the cost to run them, and therefore, the nuke plant.
Maybe the 1.86:1 people have this all factored in, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a nuke plant during a time when it's safe maintenance and operation were compromised.
Now, rather than invest all of that "technology" and resources into a type of energy plant which delivers dubious rewards, why not let's all of us use our big, giant brains and learn how to live more and more on immediate sunlight?
...rather than going to silly, desperate lengths to keep things going as they are now?
zeke