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Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby zeke » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 15:30:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'I')f you have a link showing nuclear to be a net energy loser I would like to see it. Sounds like BS to me.


Perhaps you have links to information which proves that nuclear is not a net energy loser.

Remember, we're talking about the whole equation here: not just the megawatts you get after the thing is built and while it's running at top efficiency, and before it becomes no longer useful, but with all of the energy inputs factored into the construction, maintenence, dismantling and cleanup/detox afterward. Not to mention the mining, refining, storage and shipping of the fuel, as well as the shipping, containment and storage of spent fuel.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')ssuming we did power down and are on the long road to a sustainable population, what do you propose we do with the throng of recently unemployed?


that's precisely one of the issues causing so much excess stomach acid these days....and not merely to do about "unemployment" which is more an oil-age concept, but how to feed, clothe and house a bunch of people who have few or no skills or resources to contend in a post-oil world.

we have a grossly oversize population right now, made possible by cheap fossile fuel inputs...a "free push" if you will, thanks to nature.

Subtract that support and that's when the crying begins. And you can't really fall back on the ways we might handle it now, because the rule book for the future hasn't even been written yet.



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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 16:09:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'P')erhaps you have links to information which proves that nuclear is not a net energy loser.
Remember, we're talking about the whole equation here: not just the megawatts you get after the thing is built and while it's running at top efficiency, and before it becomes no longer useful, but with all of the energy inputs factored into the construction, maintenence, dismantling and cleanup/detox afterward. Not to mention the mining, refining, storage and shipping of the fuel, as well as the shipping, containment and storage of spent fuel.
As a matter of fact I do. Most estimates put the EROEI for nuclear in the 4:1 or 5:1 range:
EROEI
EROI

Some highly pessimistic estimates put it as low as 1.86:1. And some highly optimistic estimates put it as high as 93:1:
EROEI of Nuclear

A value of 1:1 is break even, anything lower than 1 is net energy loss. I don't believe that 93:1 estimate, it seems the authors of the report were intentionally deceitful by not including the energy needed for enrichment. But not even the most pessimistic analysis got a value of lower than 1 for nuclear's EROEI.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby zeke » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 16:34:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'ā')€¦But not even the most pessimistic analysis got a value of lower than 1 for nuclear's EROEI.


Well, that is sweet then. I just skimmed one of the pages you linked and it seems the actual numbers require an awful lot of "correcting" and "massaging" and that the numbers may be sexed up or down depending upon what the calculating person or entity wants to portray.

Let's knock around some other concepts, then.

Oil has given a return of 100 to 1...I'm sure it's not that now, but you can see that the closer it gets to 1:1, the stupider it is to pursue it. Put into every day words, the closer it requires one barrel of oil to recover and refine one barrel, the less sense it makes to continue that activity.

So, let's go with 1.86:1. I'd say if when we're getting oil out of the ground and the rate of return gets that low, things aren't going to be pretty. We won't have the kind of energy (or financial return) which has allowed us to "suspend the laws of physics" as we've done in our minds for generations. Life will be tougher then.

And as for some of the estimates being either pessimistic or optimistic, something stinks in there. Either they're doing an honest, exhaustive calculation or they aren't. Sounds like they might not be. Sounds like they might not WANT to factor in all the factors. Since the estimates vary wildly from one another, it sounds like some are playing fast and loose with the numbers to make things LOOK better with a little mathematical hoobidie-hoo.

Nature doesn't play that game. If you need 1400 calories per day to survive and all you come up with is 800 calories per day, you are going to die. period.

Right now, oil is relatively plentiful and is used to build and maintain all kinds of OTHER things; one of those other things is nuclear power plants.

If we build one today, and it lasts until 50 years from now, when most people agree that oil will be far less plentiful than it is today, how are you going to maintain and dismantle it?

Bikes? Horses? Wind?

If oil is really scarce then, society or governments will have to make some unhappy choices. What to cut? Sewerage? Defense? Agriculture? Fire, Police and Ambulance?

What about political corruption? Suppose some regional Boss decides he wants his own fleet of Humvee's to patrol "his" empire, and he hijacks oil meant for civic purposes?

Will oil be earmarked for running the nuke plants? For handling unforeseen nuke plant accidents?

What happens if, in the oil-poor future, we get our own Chernobyl, owing to lack of equipment or energy, or skilled manpower, and we have a containment and evactuation scenario?

Relocating people and industry from that immediate area is going to require energy, too; more so than if they'd been able to live and work peacefully by the olde nuke plante throughout it's lifespan.

Also, while the nuke plant is operational, it still takes equipment powered by oil to contribute to its continued operation, and the more oil it takes to recover the oil used as fuel, the higher the cost to run them, and therefore, the nuke plant.

Maybe the 1.86:1 people have this all factored in, but I wouldn't want to be anywhere near a nuke plant during a time when it's safe maintenance and operation were compromised.

Now, rather than invest all of that "technology" and resources into a type of energy plant which delivers dubious rewards, why not let's all of us use our big, giant brains and learn how to live more and more on immediate sunlight?

...rather than going to silly, desperate lengths to keep things going as they are now?

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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 16:36:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', ' ')why not let's all of us use our big, giant brains and learn how to live more and more on immediate sunlight?


Looks like a good idea to me.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 17:13:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')ssuming we did power down and are on the long road to a sustainable population, what do you propose we do with the throng of recently unemployed?


Cut wages and reemploy them. In other words, 10 people making $10/hr is now 20 people making $5/hr.

Give up our energy slaves.

Idle the machines and give up the speed. Let manual labor return.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 21 Dec 2008, 01:48:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ') Each of the previous three oil shocks in the United States was followed by recession. In every oil shock, the US economy was at or near its ā€œstall speedā€ when the oil shock occurred. From the cringes of the financial analysts as of late, nothing has changed.


Now, I can say that each of the previous four oil shocks in the United States was followed by recession.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 21 Dec 2008, 10:25:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'C')ut wages and reemploy them. In other words, 10 people making $10/hr is now 20 people making $5/hr.

Give up our energy slaves.

Idle the machines and give up the speed. Let manual labor return.
Better yet, use gasoline/Carbon taxes to increase the efficiency and efficacy of oil's use in personal transportation. Sure, smaller vehicles that pollute less will lead to fewer externalized costs that need to be addressed via stuff like more healthcare thanks to pollution and more reconstruction thanks to climate change, but wasting a resource just so we can pay for the externalized costs and have people employed cleaning up the mess seems like a poor excuse for busy work at the expense of what could be useful work, such as addressing infrastructure, maybe expanding rail or renewables, all for the sake of those poor poor oil tycoons.

Energy is not created or destroyed, but wealth is. Engaging in deliberately wasteful practices just to we can claim to employ the same number of people that would've been employed in wealth building activities is downright silly. We can tear down every structure in the U.S. and rebuild to the same spec it was when it was torn down over some time period if we want to see employment and GDP through the roof, instead of building renewable infrastructure, but that doesn't mean doing so would create any meaningful wealth, as opposed building renewable infrastructure that would generate much cleaner energy w/ fewer externalized costs for decades.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 21 Dec 2008, 17:04:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')Engaging in deliberately wasteful practices just to we can claim to employ the same number of people that would've been employed in wealth building activities is downright silly.


No one is suggesting such. That's a strawman argument.

What is silly, is to suggest the wholesale cold turkey demise of millions of occupations, no matter how wasteful.

Those people will not go quietly into the dark, cold night. It will take decades to make such a transition.

Even today, the #1 goal is to get people back to work for socio-economic stability.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 21 Dec 2008, 17:08:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ') Energy is not created or destroyed, but wealth is. Engaging in deliberately wasteful practices just to we can claim to employ the same number of people that would've been employed in wealth building activities is downright silly. We can tear down every structure in the U.S. and rebuild to the same spec it was when it was torn down over some time period if we want to see employment and GDP through the roof, instead of building renewable infrastructure, but that doesn't mean doing so would create any meaningful wealth, as opposed building renewable infrastructure that would generate much cleaner energy w/ fewer externalized costs for decades.


Using what source of energy?

You cut out the waste to be able to meet supply.

Now you are going to use that same energy to consume something else, creating the same shortfall?

How is this conservation?
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby bodigami » Sun 21 Dec 2008, 18:22:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zeke', 'p')robably, but instead I'll give you "author."

Heinberg, Richard


he cites energy required to build, maintain, fuel, and ultimately dismantle, clean up and decontaminate, which are rarely discussed as part of the true cost of nuclear power.

We tend not to like the "cleaning up" aspect of a lot of our technologies, and the world is bursting with examples of that..


zeke


Just imagine the centuries nuclear waste has to be "managed". IMO, that's the main disadvantage of nuclear energy: nuclear waste.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 21 Dec 2008, 20:34:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', ' ')Engaging in deliberately wasteful practices just to we can claim to employ the same number of people that would've been employed in wealth building activities is downright silly.
No one is suggesting such. That's a strawman argument.
I never said anyone was suggesting such, I just stated my opinion on the subject. Ironically enough, claiming a strawman argument where none exists is a strawman argument. :lol:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hat is silly, is to suggest the wholesale cold turkey demise of millions of occupations, no matter how wasteful.
Millions of occupations have seen their demise in the past and millions more will in the future. There is no need to continue wasteful behavior for it's own sake and/or for the sake of a few at the cost of the many. I'm also not suggesting we cut jobs willy-nilly, just that we change our priorities and w/ help from government programs for changing employment alter the market such it reflects the actual cost of fossil fuels.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')hose people will not go quietly into the dark, cold night. It will take decades to make such a transition.
Exactly, and that is why we need comprehensive and intelligent programs designed to help w/ any transition as well as the foresight to start sooner rather than later.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'E')ven today, the #1 goal is to get people back to work for socio-economic stability.That is demonstrably false. While encouraging employment is definitely a concern, we do not make it the #1 goal. Businesses do fail and people become unemployed. The #1 goal for most is to get by as best they can, and the externalized/unaccounted costs of fossil fuels are making this harder.
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