General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
by tsakach » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 00:26:51
In an environment where the energy supply is increasing, increases in efficiency have a multiplier effect on economic growth.
But the picture is quite different when the energy supply is constant or decreasing. When the energy supply is constant, increases in efficiency may have an effect on economic growth if the net energy obtained from the efficiency gain is greater than the energy expended to produce the efficiency gain.
The problem is that the energy efficiency improvements must be sustained to prevent contraction. Due to diminishing returns it is highly improbable that efficiency gains alone will be able to support the economy for any length of time, or even avoid contraction, particularly when the energy supply is decreasing.
So instead of efficiency gains, investment in replacing the losses in supply from depletion is necessary to avoid contraction. These investments would be for any new energy sources, including alternative energy.
Since new energy sources have different EROEI values, something really expensive like nuclear power is likely to be pushed back, while natural gas, oil sands, offshore oil and wind power are more likely to be developed first.
The problem is with net gain, where the replaced energy supply must be larger than the losses from depletion. If no net gain exists from new energy sources than serious problems exist.
In other words, serious problems exist.
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by MonteQuest » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 00:50:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', ' ') But if a cartel manipulates the price of that something, that would make efficiency gains a moot point in the price of that resource. IE, it was the cartel who put the product on sale, not the MPG increase.
Cartel? Oil is a traded commodity. The market sets the price.
Whatever you want to call it.
Whatever you want to call it?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') Massive supply side disruptions caused the 70's oil shocks, not Jevons' Paradox.
Say what?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou would be better off trying to explain the blue and green lines on that graph by looking at the price of oil during that time rather than looking at MPG, it fits better.
Fits better? Fits
your interpretation better. Doesn't fit the facts very well.
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by yesplease » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 04:28:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'C')learly, it isn't just about oil decline, it also depends on many other factors as to whether or not it'll be a problem.
There are many factors involved in how much of a problem and how that problem will be coped with, but it will be a problem.
I suppose so, but me not getting a date w/ a super-model tonight is too. Clearly, some problems are far more serious than others, and in this case, I'd say that in terms of oil depletion the hardest part will be coping initially. But once that's dealt w/, the problem will be fewer overall costs and higher per capita GDP. Those poor poor Japanese.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 05:50:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'H')owever I still believe the US could achieve significant energy savings without plunging us into a recession.
Well, you're entitled to that belief but I very much doubt it's true.
If France and Germany could do it, why would you doubt the US could do it?
Maybe if they had 16 to thirty years. But to do it when they are already in a practical recession is, shall we say, highly unlikely. I'd be surprised if France and Germany could do it now.
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 05:53:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'C')learly, it isn't just about oil decline, it also depends on many other factors as to whether or not it'll be a problem.
There are many factors involved in how much of a problem and how that problem will be coped with, but it will be a problem.
I suppose so, but me not getting a date w/ a super-model tonight is too. Clearly, some problems are far more serious than others, and in this case, I'd say that in terms of oil depletion the hardest part will be coping initially. But once that's dealt w/, the problem will be fewer overall costs and higher per capita GDP. Those poor poor Japanese.
Hey, you never know, all your wishes might come true!
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 05:57:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hose poor poor Japanese.
Yeah, having not long come through a long period of stagnation, they now have to deal with a severe recession. What a bummer.
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by yesplease » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 06:32:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hose poor poor Japanese.
Yeah, having not long come through a long period of stagnation, they now have to deal with a severe recession. What a bummer.
Stagnation? They've increased GDP/capita by ~30% from ~1975-2005 compared to the states, while keeping oil consumption flat amid a growing population with more wealth. If they stagnate similarly from 2005-2035, they'll out "stagnate" the US per capita GDP by a fairly wide margin.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by yesplease » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 06:36:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'H')owever I still believe the US could achieve significant energy savings without plunging us into a recession.
Well, you're entitled to that belief but I very much doubt it's true.
If France and Germany could do it, why would you doubt the US could do it?
Maybe if they had 16 to thirty years. But to do it when they are already in a practical recession is, shall we say, highly unlikely. I'd be surprised if France and Germany could do it now.
During a recession we'll probably see greater gains, compared to other countries who adopted policies during times of relative "wealth", so to speak, since there's a much greater incentive for those who are squeezed more. Otoh, maybe not. But I doubt it... American's may be gullible and short-sighted, but they ain't completely insensitive to increases in cost. Having tried everything else, they have no option but to get it "right". 
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 06:52:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')hose poor poor Japanese.
Yeah, having not long come through a long period of stagnation, they now have to deal with a severe recession. What a bummer.
Stagnation? They've increased GDP/capita by ~30% from ~1975-2005 compared to the states, while keeping oil consumption flat amid a growing population with more wealth. If they stagnate similarly from 2005-2035, they'll out "stagnate" the US per capita GDP by a fairly wide margin.
"Sliding stock and real estate prices marked the end of the "bubble economy" of the late 1980s, and ushered in a decade of stagnant economic growth." ... "Starting in 2003 Japan's economy began to recover,"
From
Wikipedia
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 06:57:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'H')owever I still believe the US could achieve significant energy savings without plunging us into a recession.
Well, you're entitled to that belief but I very much doubt it's true.
If France and Germany could do it, why would you doubt the US could do it?
Maybe if they had 16 to thirty years. But to do it when they are already in a practical recession is, shall we say, highly unlikely. I'd be surprised if France and Germany could do it now.
During a recession we'll probably see greater gains, compared to other countries who adopted policies during times of relative "wealth", so to speak, since there's a much greater incentive for those who are squeezed more. Otoh, maybe not. But I doubt it... American's may be gullible and short-sighted, but they ain't completely insensitive to increases in cost. Having tried everything else, they have no option but to get it "right". Now it's my turn to laugh. Really, I can't help it.
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by yesplease » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 07:25:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '"')Sliding stock and real estate prices marked the end of the "bubble economy" of the late 1980s, and ushered in a decade of stagnant economic growth." ... "Starting in 2003 Japan's economy began to recover,"
From
WikipediaZee numbers do not lie! Japan is t3h wins at GDP/capita and energy consumption compared to zee Amerikan'ts. It seems that even a good glutton of an economy can't stay ahead of a poor miser of one.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by yesplease » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 07:27:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can always rely on the Americans to do the right thing -- after they have exhausted all other options.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 07:37:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '"')Sliding stock and real estate prices marked the end of the "bubble economy" of the late 1980s, and ushered in a decade of stagnant economic growth." ... "Starting in 2003 Japan's economy began to recover,"
From
WikipediaZee numbers do not lie! Japan is t3h wins at GDP/capita and energy consumption compared to zee Amerikan'ts. It seems that even a good glutton of an economy can't stay ahead of a poor miser of one.
I wasn't comparing them with the Americans. They have recently gotten through a very poor growth period, only to be hit by a severe recession.
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by yesplease » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 09:43:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '"')Sliding stock and real estate prices marked the end of the "bubble economy" of the late 1980s, and ushered in a decade of stagnant economic growth." ... "Starting in 2003 Japan's economy began to recover,"
From
WikipediaZee numbers do not lie! Japan is t3h wins at GDP/capita and energy consumption compared to zee Amerikan'ts. It seems that even a good glutton of an economy can't stay ahead of a poor miser of one.
I wasn't comparing them with the Americans. They have recently gotten through a very poor growth period, only to be hit by a severe recession.
That's what totally blows my mind. Somehow, their poor growth period is way better than normal growth in the US over the past quarter century. I'd hate to see a period of good or even decent growth over there, they'd like totally win at everything. Maybe it'd be their turn to invade a foreign country. W/ an account deficit approaching 10% of GDP, "hiring" people from other countries wouldn't be too costly. If there's anything the US has taught the world, it's that citizens have no rights as long as they ain't yours.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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by kublikhan » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 12:54:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hatever you want to call it?
Yes, Monte, in your own words, how would you describe the noble institution of OPEC?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'S')ay what?
Ok let me say it more succinctly. Turning off the oil taps drove up the price of oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou would be better off trying to explain the blue and green lines on that graph by looking at the price of oil during that time rather than looking at MPG, it fits better.
Fits better? Fits
your interpretation better. Doesn't fit the facts very well.
Right. I think your interpretation of that data is the one that is colored. Massive changes in miles driven during the 70s/early 80's. MPG is flat. But The price changes in oil match the changes in miles driven almost exactly. Steady gains in miles driven after 81. What do ya know, thats also when the price of oil started coming down. Shocker! In fact, miles driven keeps going up in the 90's as well. Oil stays cheap in the 90s, mpg flat lines. So you tell me, who is wearing the rose colored glasses here?
The oil barrel is half-full.
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by kublikhan » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 13:09:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'H')owever I still believe the US could achieve significant energy savings without plunging us into a recession.
Well, you're entitled to that belief but I very much doubt it's true.
If France and Germany could do it, why would you doubt the US could do it?
Maybe if they had 16 to thirty years. But to do it when they are already in a practical recession is, shall we say, highly unlikely. I'd be surprised if France and Germany could do it now.
Uh, that drop happened in a few years. And they were recession years:
France oil consumption(millions of barrels a day):
1980: 2.26
1981: 2.02
1982: 1.89
1983: 1.83
1984: 1.77
France GDP(2005 dollars):
1980: 689 billion
1981: 603 billion
1982: 574 billion
1983: 553 billion
1984: 525 billion
The oil barrel is half-full.
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by kublikhan » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 13:43:14
And as for that bar graph you keep posting Monte, I love how it cherry picks years and doesn't account for population growth. Here's another bar graph for you using data from your own sources:
Jevons' Paradox? I think not...
The oil barrel is half-full.
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by MonteQuest » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 18:00:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hatever you want to call it?
Yes, Monte, in your own words, how would you describe the noble institution of OPEC?
Not the institution that sets the price of oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut The price changes in oil match the changes in miles driven almost exactly.
But the mpg changes match the changes in miles driven almost exactly.
To asset that that efficiency gains had no influence on MPV even if the price of gas dropped defies science and logic.
Which car would you drive farther?
One that got 10 mpg at $35 cents a gallon or one that got 20 mpg at $35 cents?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by MonteQuest » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 18:04:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'A')nd as for that bar graph you keep posting Monte, I love how it cherry picks years and doesn't account for population growth.
Which is why I posted this one along with it.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by TonyPrep » Fri 11 Jul 2008, 18:21:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'S')omehow, their poor growth period is way better than normal growth in the US over the past quarter century.
I wasn't talking about the last 25 years.
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