[TheDude]

Direct link to same story: International Political Economy Zone: Supply Killer: Oil Exporters ...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndonesia flipped from exporting oil to importing it three years ago because of sagging production in depleted fields and rising demand. Iran, Algeria and Malaysia are vulnerable in the next decade. Most oil experts view Mexico as the next country likely to flip, in as little as five years. Rapidly falling production in Mexico's aging Cantarell oil field is part of the problem. Also significant, though, is the rising number of cars on Mexican roads. They have nearly doubled, to almost 16 million, in the last decade, and gasoline consumption is growing 5 percent a year. In Mexico City the other day, a bricklayer named Jaime Guerrero arrived at a local Chevrolet dealership. His extended family cried "bravo!" as he signed the papers for his first car.

"To have a new car in my name is a dream transformed into reality," said Guerrero, 26. He and his family piled in and weaved through the chaotic traffic of the capital, hunting for a priest to douse the car with holy water. "I don't worry about the climate or shortages of oil in the world," Guerrero said. "I just worry if gasoline prices go up."

[SoylentGreen]

the reason is simple. The actual Oil used per Mexican is Up dramatically. There isnt very many Mexicans left that are'nt in the US illegally.If it wasnt for San Diego residents driving accross the border to fil up, the TOTAL Mexican consumption would be down year after year.

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')emex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, has reduced the amount of crude oil it supplies to Texas refineries operated by Royal Dutch Shell and Valero Energy Corp. as falling production curbs exports.

The guaranteed amount of Maya oil for a Deer Park refinery, jointly operated with Shell, was cut by 15 percent, the Mexico City-based company said in a regulatory filing. Pemex also lowered oil supplies by 5.8 percent to the Port Arthur refinery of Valero, the largest U.S. refiner.

Separately, Pemex said output at Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, fell to an almost 12-year low in May.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nicholai', 'O')F2, how can you base your idea on one example?

[benzoil]

So that's it then. If the first leg down started in 2005/6, then July 8, 2008 is the start of the second leg down.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'S')o that's it then. If the first leg down started in 2005/6, then July 8, 2008 is the start of the second leg down.

[benzoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'S')o that's it then. If the first leg down started in 2005/6, then July 8, 2008 is the start of the second leg down.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('benzoil', 'A')ctually, I'd say you're right. I wouldn't be surprised if that's when we first see actual shortages.

[Novus]

For a long time we talked about the apocalypse coming in 2012 but things are speeding up rapidly. If the US hadn't seen 800k worth of demand destruction in the last year we would already have shortages. The thing is we need more demand destruction to keep up with these decline curves. There can only be so demand destruction before the whole thing breaks. The breaking point where society goes Hobbsian may be setting up for the 2010 time frame if not sooner.

[DantesPeak]

Can someone explain to the 'kids' here that Mexico may have a fuel consumption problem?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exican gasoline supplies being limited; diesel crisis ongoing

By Omar Millan Gonzalez
July 7, 2008

TIJUANA – In the midst of a diesel shortage that has left truck and bus drivers chasing meager supplies, Mexico's national oil monopoly has discreetly informed gas station owners that their gasoline sales will also be limited.

Meanwhile, the diesel crisis showed no signs of easing. It started a week ago and led to truck and bus drivers waiting hours in line at gas stations for a chance to buy diesel, when they could find it at all.

[copious.abundance]

People here have given 1 link to a peakoil.com story about a 1-year, 5+% rise in Mexican oil consumption, and 1 link to someone's blog. I'd be more than happy to be shown that Mexican gasoline consumption is going through the roof, but not even the BP annual statistical review carries such figures, and a search everywhere else has come up dry.

[TheDude]

Check the EIA data on exports to Mexico, then. Exports from the US took off in '97 while imports from Mexico reached a level they maintained until recently. There's no explanation for that except a boost in consumption of finished products. EIA says gasoline is over 60 percent of Mexican imports, too.

[copious.abundance]

^
I have no doubt Mexico is importing more gasoline. But as everyone knows, their domestic production is declining, so even if their consumption was flat, they would still be importing more oil or at least gasoline.

So I'm not sure that really answers the question.

[copious.abundance]

Also, Mexican oil exports to the US have been rising - at least until last year.

Mexico

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'C')heck the EIA data on exports to Mexico, then. Exports from the US took off in '97 while imports from Mexico reached a level they maintained until recently. There's no explanation for that except a boost in consumption of finished products. EIA says gasoline is over 60 percent of Mexican imports, too.

[DantesPeak]

I guess some still haven't heard that Cantarell is crashing.

Mexican exports to the US have dropped 25% since October 2006. They may be down 80% by 2010.

What happened before PO really doesn't matter anymore.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') guess some still haven't heard that Cantarell is crashing.

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In the last three days oil prices have fallen by roughly $10 a barrel. Many analysts say slackening demand, or the threat of it, is the main culprit.

But another force could be at work in the background. Last week various analysts said there was talk that Mexico, the world's fifth largest oil producer, was hedging its bets - the country was said to be signing contracts to deliver oil several years into the future at today's prices. Essentially, it was betting oil prices have peaked.

[Cashmere]

Mexico?

Wow.

If they end up becoming a net importer in the next 2 years, long term contracts to <i>deliver</i> oil at today's prices could end up being a slaughter.

[UncoveringTruths]

I see Force Majeure in Mexico's future. Who would be dumb enough to lock in future contracts with them?