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How Long Do We Have?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby PonyBoy78 » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 14:30:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Muckingfess', 'W')ell Guys & Gals, none of us knows when TSHTF and I really don't care. My Dad used to say"None of us have a contract with the Man upstairs". Whatever you believe in, you can believe that none of us can control our final destiny.

I have lived 64 years so far. I have seen the advent of jet aircraft, a man on the moon, the assassinations of a President, his brother, rock stars, and great leaders. I've seen the age of Aquarius, the age of the computer, the advance of medical science, the decline of morality, 9/11, the steady erosion of the Bill of Rights, the crumbling of the justice system in the US, the flooding of a great city, and the flooding of illegal immigrants to the US. I've seen the first man in space, the first woman justice of the supreme court, the first woman and black American to have a real chance at becoming the POTUS, and possibly the last free election in the US.

I've lived in Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Montana, BC, and Nevada. I've seen the wonders and beauty of nature and the damage it can do. I've been to 49 of the 50 United States and traveled in Europe, Canada and Mexico. The only place I haven't been that I want to go is Alaska.

I live alone and have prepared for emergencies. Unfortunately I live in a city. There will be no survival. I will protect my stashes and my property. If I fail, so be it. I just can't help but to think that it's been a great ride.


I'll be 30 in two months, and feel fortunate that at least this large portion of my life has taken place in relative, oil-soaked comfort. The flooding of my home city (and the aftermath) has forced me to think long and hard about what's important, how the government handles unrest, where I'd like to live, how I'd like to prepare, etc etc. If we have another year or two (or few more semi-bumpy ones) before the sharper fall begins, I'll consider us blessed.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby oowolf » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 15:29:36

We have until mass panic breaks out, whenever that may be. (Probably much sooner than most of you think.) Financial crash is imminent, taking the US$ with it. Hyperinflation; Martial law; Anarchy; Collapse; Dieoff. Once civil order begins to break down the process rapidly speeds up. If the grid goes down the rate becomes exponential.

By the way, people that until recently labelled me "paranoid" now call me "smart".
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby BigTex » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 15:55:07

One way of thinking about investing in ETFs like USO, UNG, GLD, SLV and FXF is not as an investment, but more as an insurance policy.

If noting bad happens, you may lose some of your premiums, but if things get ugly these deployments of capital are likely to preserve purchasing power and protect your assets.
:)
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 17:25:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')size=200]Da shite would hit the fan at
21 Dec 2012 because it is the
start of the Age of Aquarium[/size]


Is this what your guardian angel---fish, told you?
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 17:28:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'O')h i think we have plenty of time before TSHTF, a good 5-10 years at least. Of course if you factor in the 'credit crunch' issue, it could be next year. :8O:

Many people here on PO.com are getting on a bit and I think they want the 'collapse'. They have lived good lives and (quite rightly) want to see this horrible system we live in destroyed. It clouds their judgement.

Of course you could quite reasonibly argue the fact I'm in my early 20s with no physical preperations yet clouds my judgement.


Dude, oil is over 140 per barrel, the dollar is weakening, corporations are beginning massive layoffs, the prez is talking up expanding war in the Middle East, and millions of people are going to lose their homes. What kind of a dreamworld are you living in? I'm one of the less pure doomer types on this forum, and I'm getting the s****.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby gnm » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 17:28:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'O')ne way of thinking about investing in ETFs like USO, UNG, GLD, SLV and FXF is not as an investment, but more as an insurance policy.

If noting bad happens, you may lose some of your premiums, but if things get ugly these deployments of capital are likely to preserve purchasing power and protect your assets.


Tex, do you think in a collapse/depression type scenario that those would be honored or retain any value?

-G
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 17:45:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Muckingfess', 'W')ell Guys & Gals, none of us knows when TSHTF and I really don't care. My Dad used to say"None of us have a contract with the Man upstairs". Whatever you believe in, you can believe that none of us can control our final destiny.
.


With all due respect, Muckingfess, you can't control a hurricane either, but you can increase your odds of survival by knowing how to spot storm systems that may become hurricanes, figuring out where they're going to land, how strong they'll be etc... and prepare while other people are still twiddling their thumbs. Only after you've done all that should you be complacent and philosophical,imho.

The problem with advanced years, (and mine are pretty advanced, too!) is the past isn't necessarily an indicator of what is going to happen in the future. I have to fight the tendency to over interpret the future through my notion of what happened in the seventies.

There isn't going to be a happy ending. It probably won't unfold like a Shakespearian tragedy, either. Likely it will be some kind of weird odyssey that has to be gauged on a moment to moment basis. Those who can adjust their contingencies to rapid shifts in the mental, social and economic environment will prevail. The power of positive thinking alone will not work, nor will pure intellect.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 18:03:37

Well my predictions have been pretty well on track. Oil will keep going higher and things will get more gloomy in the next month or two. We will most likely have conflict in the middle east very soon which will increase the fear factor. A lot of people will go short on the market. I would predict around or after the Olympics the price of oil to start dropping as we go into election season. The market will rally and things will look OK again for a good few months at least. 2009 some serious shit will go down and we (the US) will participate in a major war with Iran. Best prepare in the latter part of the year. Gas and food shortages are a certainty. We still have some time before that all happens.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 18:29:35

PFTF is about what I have done.

Not how long I can put it off.

Gonna move you now Heiney.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby doomlover666 » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 18:38:36

Hi guys,
I am new to PO.com, but i have been reading alot of the forums for about 2 years now, and in my opinion I would say we have about 4 years. Because until you see massive lay-offs and serious civil un rest, this is just a minor speed bump. Now, if we go to war with Iran, which I feel the neocons are itching to do, then thats when TSWHTF. Because I believe that's when china and the rest of the world is going to pimp slap the US, and say" no no no you glutinous pigs, no more oil for you".
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby killJOY » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 18:47:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow long do you think YOU have?


5 and 3/4 inches. :oops:


On a lighter note...

I'm an EMT in Maine. I'm preparing myself mentally for the possibility of chipping frozen, dead people off their sofas in the trailer park down the road. A friend of mine there tells me people are already siphoning oil out of outside oil tanks in the middle of the night.

This WILL BE the winter of our discontent.

I also work at an organic farm. We're teaching kids how to grow organically, and we're starting a huge community composter. Today I told one of my bosses that very soon they will have to surround the compost pit with barbed wire to keep out pirates. It will be worth its weight in gold once NPK fertilizers are out of sight.

People are hording food, and this will worsen as winter approaches. We grow huge amounts of our own food here at home. We're growing wheat, and as much feed for the cows and pigs that we can (corn, mangles, cabbages, and pumpkins.) Goddamnit, we're not going hungry, if I have to eat fried potatoes 7 days a week.

I plan to fill the cellar with a year's worth of potatoes (white and red), leeks, onions, beans (dried and canned), tomatoes (sauce, whole canned), cabbages (whole and sauerkraut), brussels sprouts (whole plants in sacks), squash (delicata, waltham), beets and carrots (whole, in baskets), canned peas and corn, a crock of pickles.

Our cow will be milking, so we'll have butter, cheese, etc., and feed (skimmed milk) for the pigs. We'll be rendering lard and making sausage. We're ordering new layers, plus a huge batch of broilers to slaughter in the fall. I expect to be able to trade them for sex. :P

I'm wondering who's going to ask to spend the winter with us. We're already expecting one friend, and perhaps my niece.

Our neighbor's daughter and son-in-law having already asked to spend the winter at their place, because they "can't afford the heating bills."

A friend of ours up the coast is closing up his house for the winter and moving to an efficiency apartment in Portland till spring.

I've been keeping the tractors and all the equipment (chainsaws, mowers, tillers) full of gas and the gas cans full in the shed. The tractors are out of siphoners' range in the barn.

We're hording kerosene in an ancient fifty-gallon drum with a handpump for our spare space heater and our 1930s refrigerator. Once it's cold outside, we'll shut down the fridge and keep the food cold in the pantry.

My 1990 VW lost a hubcap, the driver's window doesn't work, and none of the back doors open, but I'm hanging onto it for dear life because it gets about 35 miles per gallon.

There is no good news on the horizon. None. But people just go on, lalala, like nothing's the matter. There's going to be an explosion, a huge one, with panic, pandemonium, shootings, so keep your heads down.

We're heading into The Great Correction, and it's going to last ad infinitum. Your neighbors will be wandering around, stunned, waiting for Santa Claus to stuff their stockings full of cans of Spam.

When that doesn't materialize, come spring they'll be crawling emaciated toward their Easter baskets, hoping Peter Cottontail took a dump in one of them.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 20:39:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')size=200]Da shite would hit the fan at
21 Dec 2012 because it is the
start of the Age of Aquarium[/size]
Yes, big giant fish will menace our existence. But all we have to do is neglect to sprinkle some fish food and they will go belly-up.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 20:45:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'Y')es, big giant fish will menace our existence. But all we have to do is neglect to sprinkle some fish food and they will go belly-up.


Beware of the Land Shark. With laser beam.

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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 20:55:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'Y')es, big giant fish will menace our existence. But all we have to do is neglect to sprinkle some fish food and they will go belly-up.


Beware of the Land Shark. With laser beam.

Image
Guess we gotta do an Apollo Project thingy to build bigger aquariums. Send in the SEALS to take out those lasers.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 23:30:08

I wonder what we'd be doing differently if we KNEW how long we had? Ah, that's the question. Or maybe it isn't?

God knows. Right now I'm going to bed and the darkling void of sleep . . . a quasi-preview of coming attractions.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby Jack » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 23:38:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'B')ut I somehow don't think we'll all be carrying pistols to the grocery store in 2010. Seriously, if it was that bad, there wouldn't be a grocery store to wear your gun to...hehe.


Maybe...but the local police are already advising people to leave nothing visible in their cars. To put anything in the trunk and out of sight.

And there have already been some assaults...in broad daylight...in relatively "good" areas....

Some of us are already preparing for the future.

8)
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby IndigoMoon » Fri 04 Jul 2008, 00:07:51

I cannot make a guess as to how long we have or maybe I just don't want to.

I went to the grocery store this afternoon to pick up some things for tomorrows BBQ. I asked a salesperson if they had coleslaw dressing and she said they were out of it.

Another woman asked me what it was I was looking for and I told her. I said that I knew it was easy enough to make I just didn't want to because my homemade was never as good as my Grandma's. (She passed away at age 97 ten years ago- I am 48 )

Her response? "Just make it. You'll need to remember how to anyway. It is already happening."

The way she said it sent shivers down my spine.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby jdumars » Fri 04 Jul 2008, 00:19:57

Indigo, I just had one of those creepy moments too...

I was just at Home Depot in tiny Bellevue, Tennessee getting some more blood meal fertilizer and a couple of cantaloupe plants for our gigantic garden, and the lady checking me out did the following monologue to me…

“Boy, I should get some pepper plants. For the price of a few peppers at the market, I can get a whole plant and a lot more peppers. Hmmmm… I guess it’s better to get stuff here. It’s all going to be local soon, you know? Gas… I don’t think it’s ever coming back down. People are blaming everyone else, but it’s never coming back down. Nope, never.”

I just shook my head and said “nope.”
Dismantle globally, renew locally!
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby IndigoMoon » Fri 04 Jul 2008, 00:32:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', 'I')ndigo, I just had one of those creepy moments too...
I just shook my head and said “nope.”


She caught me so off guard that all I could do was agree with her. It was the oddest feeling. She validated my feelings by what she had said. She could have been Amish by the dress that she was wearing and the way her hair was pinned up but she wasn't wearing a bonnet. It scared the bee-jeebers out of me.
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Re: How Long Do We Have?

Unread postby Ainan » Fri 04 Jul 2008, 05:33:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'O')h i think we have plenty of time before TSHTF, a good 5-10 years at least. Of course if you factor in the 'credit crunch' issue, it could be next year. :8O:

Many people here on PO.com are getting on a bit and I think they want the 'collapse'. They have lived good lives and (quite rightly) want to see this horrible system we live in destroyed. It clouds their judgement.

Of course you could quite reasonibly argue the fact I'm in my early 20s with no physical preperations yet clouds my judgement.


Dude, oil is over 140 per barrel, the dollar is weakening, corporations are beginning massive layoffs, the prez is talking up expanding war in the Middle East, and millions of people are going to lose their homes. What kind of a dreamworld are you living in? I'm one of the less pure doomer types on this forum, and I'm getting the s****.


Oh sure, but thats in America, when TSHTF there it will give the rest of us a little more breathing room. I do understand this will have a massive impact on the rest of the world but we can probably get by.
April 2008 Global Population: 6.8 billion
April 2010 Global Population: 7 billion
April 2012 Global Population: 7.2 billion
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