by lawnchair » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:07:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'O')il has had a nice run. Based on todays activity, it looks like it will start out strong tomorrow. Probably because of the dollar. Today coal futures dropped over 10%. Is oil going to follow? I think so. I think it can be as early as next week. If investors see a $15 drop in 1 day I think many will bail out and then oil will drop drastically.
I don't think it drops until we see honest-to-god demand destruction. While the economic news presages that there may be some, and there are plenty of anecdotes, this weeks numbers didn't show it at all.
The Saudis, for one, are not interested in increasing flow rate. The Sauds are looking at their bloated population pyramid, unsustainable chunk of land, and painful internal reserves estimates. They know that the angry teenagers with machetes will be taking over sooner or later. They'd rather it was later. Thus, their optimum flow rate is "as low as possible while making enough money to placate their people", not "that which would make Americans feel like driving to Vegas".
At 1% annual growth, human bodies will incorporate every gram in the observable universe in approximately 10,170 years.