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Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soon?

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Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soon?

Unread postby CoachT » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:44:51

Oil has had a nice run. Based on todays activity, it looks like it will start out strong tomorrow. Probably because of the dollar. Today coal futures dropped over 10%. Is oil going to follow? I think so. I think it can be as early as next week. If investors see a $15 drop in 1 day I think many will bail out and then oil will drop drastically.
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby mrobert » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:53:51

Oil is at $144 right now.
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 20:56:38

Might this have something to do with it?:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
By Eileen O'Grady and Timothy Gardner

HOUSTON, July 1 (Reuters) - Developers of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. will face yet more obstacles since a Georgia court overturned an air permit for a new coal plant, saying the plant needed to limit emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas blamed for global warming.

Environmental groups predicted Monday's ruling would discourage investment in coal plants while supporters of the fuel said the ruling was unlikely to be seen as a legal precedent in other states.

While the legal importance of the Georgia decision remained cloudy, financial community reaction may be more visible, said Matt Preston, principal analyst with Hill & Associates, a Wood Mackenzie company focused on coal.

"This adds to the uncertainty as if that was needed," Preston said. "Until there is a more clear path for coal projects with regard to climate change, it will be more difficult to raise money for coal projects."

The only point observers agreed on was that Monday's court ruling was "unprecedented" in scope as it relates to the need for coal plants to regulate carbon emissions now.

"It could be a real harbinger of things to come," said Frank O'Donnell, president of Clean Air Watch in Washington.
...


Reuters

I don't know about you, but that looks neutral for oil, if not a little bullish.
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby Ayoob » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:03:17

It's also possible that in retaliation for the ECB rate change this week, that coal producers might throttle back on digging up so much of our coal for cheap, in an effort to drive the price back up and make money.

Who knows.

At the same time, that enormously rich Indian guy is buying up coal in Australia to feed his huge steel production facility.

If coal continues to drop, I think it's a buying opportunity.
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby ProudFossil » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:19:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'O')il is at $144 right now.


Oil is over $145 right now.
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby americandream » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:23:29

You brave enough to short oil?
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby MikeInHouston » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 21:37:30

You will find that Saudi and OPEC will cut production aggresivly to maintain oil in the $90-$100 range. They are well aware of "peak oil." They need the price in this range to keep their plans on track for developing new fields. They can afford to produce less oil and sell it at $100 pb, much better than maintaining production and selling it for $60 pb.

I think they want to see demand destruction as much as the greenies do. They know time is on their side. They are planing for 20 years out when they will export refined products, at crazy prices. Like 1 gallon for same price they now get for a barrel of crude.
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby lawnchair » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 22:07:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CoachT', 'O')il has had a nice run. Based on todays activity, it looks like it will start out strong tomorrow. Probably because of the dollar. Today coal futures dropped over 10%. Is oil going to follow? I think so. I think it can be as early as next week. If investors see a $15 drop in 1 day I think many will bail out and then oil will drop drastically.


I don't think it drops until we see honest-to-god demand destruction. While the economic news presages that there may be some, and there are plenty of anecdotes, this weeks numbers didn't show it at all.

The Saudis, for one, are not interested in increasing flow rate. The Sauds are looking at their bloated population pyramid, unsustainable chunk of land, and painful internal reserves estimates. They know that the angry teenagers with machetes will be taking over sooner or later. They'd rather it was later. Thus, their optimum flow rate is "as low as possible while making enough money to placate their people", not "that which would make Americans feel like driving to Vegas".
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Re: Will Oil Peak this Week and have the bottom fall out soo

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 03 Jul 2008, 00:50:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', ' ')Thus, their optimum flow rate is "as low as possible while making enough money to placate their people", not "that which would make Americans feel like driving to Vegas".


But they do need to do enough actual production to at least attempt to perpetuate the charade of "excess capacity" for as long as possible. It's a double edged sword for them now. On one hand they see the need for longer term steady production, and on the other they have to keep up appearances as long as possible which means BS rhetoric, and secrecy in their numbers for as long as possible.

They will not be able to hide the cheese much longer me thinks.
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