[Heineken]

The disintegration spawned by Peak Everything, Global Warming, environmental damage, overshoot, government waste and tomfoolery, and economic mismanagement is proceeding much faster than I anticipated when I became a member of this website. The cornucopians (remember them?) have lost the argument, ALREADY. Almost everyone is starting to feel the pain. I have never seen developments this bad at any point in my 52 years. Even the mainstream network news is becoming a nightly horror show. I am personally afraid, despite being better prepared and better off than the average yokel.

The pain could become severe, or even fatal. Picture riding your bike to your local grocery store and the shelves are bare, and they stay bare. Or a drought razes your county (and your carefully provisioned house). Or you lose your job and find that not only you can't find a new one, nobody else can either. Or you need emergency medical care but it just isn't there for you, or isn't there in time (i.e., basically, they let you die). Etc., etc.

How many years do we have before the end of the world as we know it? How long do you think YOU have?

[eastbay]

Nice rant.


A few minor changes here and there and what you have is an excellent first couple of paragraphs for a potentially great work of literature.


Anyhow, a tad under four more years. I've mentioned it a few times already this year on a few threads, and I'm sticking with early 2012 as when things start seriously falling apart. I'm not talking about 25% unemployment and 20% inflation in the west, I'm talking about serious 'fall apart'.

.... for all the reasons we've endlessly discussed over the past four years.

But the question should be, how do we prepare for this? And the answers are found in the details of this website and in this section. Fitness, growing, save, learn the basics, hook up with other like-minded... etc, etc... all of it. It's easy to pick a date, but planning for what to do, now THAT's what we're all about!

[socrates1fan]

Tell me about it.
The stuff that has been happening in the past month, I thought would take at least 5 years.
I mean for the love of god Starbucks is closing 600 stores! STARBUCKS!
=0

[Heineken]

The situation continues to remind me of "On the Beach," in the sense that the bombs have been dropped, the radiation is on its way, and daily life briefly retains an eerily unchanged quality, except for the difficulty in obtaining petrol. Obviously, the next big moment is when gas goes over the $5/gal level.

[Ayoob]

Six months.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
How many years do we have before the end of the world as we know it? How long do you think YOU have?

[eastbay]

62 was a typical ripe old age years ago ... and still is ... and will be in the future too.

I suspect 2007 was the last normal year. And by 2012 we'll have a great big mess on our hands.

[Cashmere]

I'm with DW.

2008 is the last year that approximates "normal".


2009 - unrest.

2010 - riots.

That's my worst case scenario.

My best case scenario pushes those numbers back only a year or three.

But . . .

I really don't see making it to 2010 without some serious lid popping.

Heiny is right - I've had to update my doom timeline frequently in the last 6 months. Always shorter.

Frankly, I'm very worried that the time is upon us.

I've always thought that the trigger would be when a certain critical mass of Donkey Sh-t Eaters started to catch on that this is a one way ticket down and it's <i><b>never going to get better</i></b>.

By my reckoning, we're within 24 months of that critical mass being reached.

[Mods - I'm stunned that you have put in a filter to shorten my pet phrase to DSE. Wow. This site really is trying to "clean up" for the mass arrival of. Well. Of. Of the DSEs, of course.]

[roccman]

Next Tuesday.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Sept 2008 - Global economic crash
2010 - Resource wars / die-off
2012 - You don't want to know

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')he disintegration spawned by Peak Everything, Global Warming, environmental damage, overshoot, government waste and tomfoolery, and economic mismanagement ?

[TWilliam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'B')TW, you left out some serious doom scenarios, such as Iran/Israel.

[SILENTTODD]

I honestly see things occurring now that I did not expect to see for another 2 years, say just after 2010. I've stopped trying to warn people, most of them are still in denial.

Heineken, I'm a year older than you and have been reading your posts all along. I know of some of your tribulations as you have written about them. But you’re much better prepared than me. I have no alternative at this point than to be a refugee from a place I am convinced will be totally unsustainable (So. Cal.).

I have a couple of places that I have scouted east of the Mississippi, one has family, and one has a dear friend I could move to. But I will still be a stranger in a strange land in both.

I'm looking at a small list of 'canary in the coal mine' signals in the near future to push me to go. One is the collapse of the Airline industry. Once that goes every other means of conveyance across this country other than walking or bicycling will soon follow (you will not be able to get a seat on a train, let alone your goods!).

My company (AT&T) has been offering buy outs left and right, about every 6 months trying to reduce head count (another signal, we don't have enough people now to do the work!). I have 28 years and may take the next one.

I feel like a Jew in Germany must have felt like in 1936, I know what must be coming is not good, but I don't want to change to a strange place, and how bad can this guy Hitler be?

At the rate we are seeing now, I believe we have no longer than 18 mos before the S really HTF.

[SILENTTODD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dunewalker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
How many years do we have before the end of the world as we know it? How long do you think YOU have?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'B')TW, you left out some serious doom scenarios, such as Iran/Israel.

[hardtootell]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DoomWarrior', 'B')TW, you left out some serious doom scenarios, such as Iran/Israel.

[threadbear]

I thought it would start to cave a few years ago, so am not surprised it's happening now. Don't think the banking crisis can be stopped, climate messed up, Mother Nature turning into Mother Dearest. It's upon us, we're in it. It's just a matter of hunkering down now. Plans should be in full implementation stage. If you don't have some dehydrated food....GET IT! The most likely real emergency scenario nationwide is a food crunch due to neo-cons bombing Iran after the elections, but before the official coronations. Oil will go right through the roof.

[PonyBoy78]

Not sure. I'm hoping for at least three more years of steady employment (healthcare). Our ER is still packed every night, and I'd be one of the very last in my department to be "downsized." The hospitals will be running for a while.. I hope.

[patience]

I gave up on steady employment in 2003. (Auto Industry, Engrg.) We started a repair shop at home, thinking it would take a while to get established. After 2 years it was making some money, and now have a good customer base, but that customer base is eroding as I write. It will endure as a business, but vastly changed into heroics to keep critical stuff going. There are shades of that already, as $5 diesel bites farmers, loggers, and truckers.

How long? I hope for as long as possible, but realistically, I see serious pain locally as fuel prices climb this year. People have already cut out discretionary driving and purchases, tried to find cheaper transportation, and poor people buying hamburger helper at the discount grocery are also buying canning jars. Gardens proliferate. Local firewood cutters are busy NOW, ahead of the usual fall sales. Petty crime is up, stealing metal for salvage sale.

I expect that by spring, 2009, for the country in general to be in deep recession/depression, and scambling for answers. My prep timeline is to try for everything I can think of to be up and running this year. I'm behind, of course.

I don't really want to look much further than that at this time. At 62 this fall, I'd like to draw some of the money extorted from me by SS. Mostly, I'm planning to leave something worthwhile for our kids.

[jlw61]

I'm just a couple years younger than you Heineken, and I'm expecting to make it to 70. That is where most of my relations tended to die before 1980, after that point they all started going into their late 70's to mid 80's. So with luck that gives me about 20 years to make sure my children and grand children have a decent chance at whatever life there is to live.

I really think that while the economy will show more fracturing that the real S will not hit the fan for several months. I'm not hopeful on it lasting to 2012 but I'll take it if I can get it. However, I will repeat what I've already written elsewhere.

I don't know when it's going to happen, but I think that as oil moves past $150 and beyond $175, we will see problems crop up but for the most part everyone will be amazed at the resiliancy of the western economies. Some will begin to say that no cost is too high to handle for the modern global economy.

Then one day something happens and boom... no gentle decline, no fast slide, just a cliff and a straight down plunge.