[JJ]

{quote abbreviated per CoC}
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')uly 2, 2008 at 13:05:33 Fortis Prediction of US Bank Meltdown a Net Hoax: The Making of an Urban Legend by Paul Haughey Page 1 of 1 page(s) link

This article documents how an urban legend got started the weekend of June 28-29, 2008, how and why urban legends spread virally, and what you can do to spot them and stop them. On Sunday, June 29, I received several forwarded articles alleging a large European banking conglomerate predicted a United States financial "meltdown" within coming weeks.

The forwarded story led me to a blog, not a news site, which alleged to provide a one paragraph abbreviation of the story, introduced by the statement "I was shocked to read the following, which was posted 4 hours ago...". The article alleges that Fortis chairman, Maurice Lippens, expects 6,000 US banks to file for bankruptcy in coming weeks. It mentions that even large financial institutions, such as Citigroup and General Motors, will also be affected, and these events will start a complete financial meltdown in the United States.

STORY DOES NOT HOLD UP TO SCRUTINY
A quick internet search revealed the same abbreviated "article" -- only one paragraph long, with the exact same introductory statement -- has been posted on 269 other blogs and discussion boards. Most of these discussion boards allow anonymous posts, with no accountability required by the poster or author (such as the Sean Hannity fan site, the Ron Paul discussion board, etc). The story can also be found on Digg and other viral marketing and web ring sites, and I predict that you will probably see this many more times, on discussion boards or in emails, for months or years to come.

Most posts also claim that the original story was written in Dutch, and a few even contained a dead link to the alleged original story on Da Telegraaf, a Dutch news submission site. After searching the Da Telegraaf site, I was able to find the original story, which was submitted anonymously. It had no author, it sited no source, it came from no news syndicate (such as Reuters or Associated Press), and it was submitted to no news syndicates.

My first reaction to the story was that it contained all the elements of a net rumor or an urban legend, the kind my grandfather likes to forward to me: Bill Gates will give you $1,000 for forwarding his email; Obama isn't really a US citizen; undocumented Mexican laborers are going to get $1 trillion in free US health care but you are not; car jackers are going to steal your car by putting a flyer on your window; etc.
I next searched every legitimate news site I could think of, including press release sites, blogs or personal web sites by Fortis directors or employees, interviews, oral or written public statements, etc. I found no predictions of 6,000 bankruptcies.
THE REAL FORTIS STORY ...

[Homesteader]

Anything is possible I suppose. However here are a few more links:

AMSTERDAM (Thomson Financial) - Expectations at Fortis that the U.S. markets are on the verge of "meltdown" were behind the Benelux bank's decision last week to launch a sweeping recapitalisation programme, said chairman Maurice Lippens. "We were saved at the last minute. Things in the U.S. are going far worse that people think," Lippens said in an interview with De Telegraaf. link

" AMSTERDAM: The supervisory board chairman of Fortis defended the Dutch-Belgian bank's measure to shore up its finances, saying they were taken because banks would likely face more trouble ahead.
Chairman Maurice Lippens said on Friday the bank had taken extraordinary measures due to the exceptional circumstances. "We do it because the economic circumstances and what we see in America make us think it will get a lot worse before it gets better," Lippens told Dutch broadcaster RTL Z in an interview." link

Has Fortis denied the statement?

[DantesPeak]

JJ - no offense but first we are not allowed to quote a story - or perhaps a blog - at length. Just give part of the article and the link.

Secondly, I have checked various news sources (for which I lack time to find all over again) that did confirm the basic premise of this thread. So the blog complaining about other bloggers is basically wrong, except for the long winded explanation that some blogs can blow things out of proportion. That may be true sometimes, but not this time.

Anyway I posted on the credit collapse thread before all these predictions came out with essentially the same comments. So whether Fortis or someone else says we are having a financial collapse of some sort or not, we are still going to have one - like it or not.

[SchroedingersCat]

When the credit crunch started all the players had each others' backs. News was kept to a minimum. Everyone was saying this is only a blip, things will turn around soon.

Things have taken an ugly turn as it has become apparent that it's not getting better, and won't anytime soon. Rating agencies are slashing ratings to try and keep some shred of credibility. Banks are pointing out the liabilities of each other in an attempt to keep their stock above water.

I think what Fortis has done is just such a move. They are in trouble and are trying to re-capitalize to save their skins and are trash-talking the rest of the industry to divert suspicion. I think we will see more of this behavior from the big players.

[JJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'J')J - no offense but first we are not allowed to quote a story - or perhaps a blog - at length. Just give part of the article and the link.
Secondly, I have checked various news sources (for which I lack time to find all over again) that did confirm the basic premise of this thread. So the blog complaining about other bloggers is basically wrong, except for the long winded explanation that some blogs can blow things out of proportion. That may be true sometimes, but not this time.
Anyway I posted on the credit collapse thread before all these predictions came out with essentially the same comments. So whether Fortis or someone else says we are having a financial collapse of some sort or not, we are still going to have one - like it or not.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', 'A')re we there yet?

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'I') searched and it appears to be a hoax as far as I can see. I suspected as much, because I don't believe for a second that CEOs are going to make public any kind of knowledge they might have or suspect about a global economic meltdown. They're going to save their own asses first, and that doesn't include making your stock options worthless. My guess is people won't know what's hitting them until it's already hit them - they're not going to get an "Oh, by the way" from some CEO somewhere...

[sameu]

Yep I confirm. It was in various newspapers here in Belgium as well as on flemisch tv.

The only remark to make here is the fact that critics say that Lippens said those things only to justify the unexpected emission of more fortis-stock.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'T')he only remark to make here is the fact that critics say that Lippens said those things only to justify the unexpected emission of more fortis-stock

[sameu]

working for a respectable oil company
stockpiling
entertaining girlfriend
not really time for peakoil.be (noch de goesting in feite)

[jdmartin]

Votron gets the boot

Wasn't this the guy that we had the post in here on a couple of weeks ago talking about half the US banks failing?

[eXpat]

He may get vindicated very soon (if the US economy tanks).

[IslandCrow]

One problem was that he did not come clean early enough with the shareholders about the problems the bank was facing and had earlier said everything was fine.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ean-Paul Votron's resignation comes after he proposed a controversial plan to raise cash that involves cutting the shareholder dividend. ... But the plan has angered investors who were shocked by the sudden change of heart after Fortis previously said the dividend was safe and its capital reserves were healthy.

[Nano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IslandCrow', 'O')ne problem was that he did not come clean early enough with the shareholders about the problems the bank was facing and had earlier said everything was fine.

[sameu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSgzfhmC0LSU&refer=home]Votron gets the boot[/url] Wasn't this the guy that we had the post in here on a couple of weeks ago talking about half the US banks failing?

[bl00k]

I read that Fortis as a whole (including recently bought ABN Amro Bank) is now worth less than what Fortis paid for ABN Amro.

[Southpaw]

Maurice lippens was the former ceo of fortis i believe and he said a month or 2 ago that the us will go into an financial meltdown. in the belgian times you can read the full article link it's dutch so most of you probably don't understand it here is the translation:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he glass sphere of Maurice Lippens
Maurice Lippens justified the end of June the capital increase of Fortis by an impending financial tsunami in the United States. He got criticism for firing. De Tijd published mid-July, after another wave bad news from the financial sector following the text. The current crisis on Wall Street makes these statements again topical.
(time) - Does Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens on a glass bulb? At the end of June, he justified the recapitalization of the bank-insurer by an impending financial tsunami in the U.S.. That was not thank him declined. But after the perikelen of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the nationalization of IndyMac and concerns about Lehman Brothers to the ball he seems to have not completely wrong.

'Two months ago we knew not so bad that it is in America. And it will be much worse. There begins a complete meltdown (collapse) in the U.S.. We expect bankruptcies among the 6,000 U.S. banks, but also Citigroup and General Motors at risk. "

Maurice Lippens said that ominous predictions just after the capital increase of Fortis. That bad blood continued to analysts, shareholders, investors and, allegedly, even when the supervisor CBFA. There he was accused that he wanted the problems of Fortis and declare the attention of the bank-insurer wanted to distract.

Lippens' kritikasters be two weeks later, however, admit that the Fortis Chair at least partly right.

Numerous difficulties: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. economy suffers from "numerous difficulties" that the growth of the U.S. economy worsened and that inflation "unusually uncertain '.

The American consumer has never been so bleak. The U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 1964, the activity in the service sector declined yet again and the figures for the Retail Trade - an indication for the consumption of households - are worse than expected.

Mortgage: The heaviest blows fall on the U.S. mortgage market. A few days ago, the Bush administration mortgage bank IndyMac nationalise. A 'run' on the bank had exhausted the cashvoorraad. There is also concern about the financial position of Washington Mutual, the sixth American hypotheekverstrekker.

The government and the U.S. central bank had last weekend also facilitate hypotheekreuzen Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Minister of Finance Henry Paulson asked the permission for an unlimited amount of shares of Fannie and Freddie to buy and borrow money to both groups. Fannie and Freddie are crucial for the U.S. property market, and thus for the economy.

And that does not stop the agony in the financial sector includes Lehman Brothers, there would be a bad stand. The fear exists that Lehman same path as his true sectorgenoot Bear Stearns, which almost went bankrupt in March.

The crisis in the United States also has repercussions in Europe. Deutsche Bank is listed on the lowest level in years because they are heavily reliant on the U.S. market. Dexia also announced in the fold, because the group is active in the U.S. through the obligatieverzekeraar FSA.

For those still has a AAA rating and thus a competitive advantage over MBIA and Ambac, which already lost the top. But it is uncertain whether the FSA will retain top. Some analysts do not rule out that Dexia the most risky activities of FSA stop and that the group must collect additional capital. FSA publishes its results in mid-August, but that date may be brought forward.

Resultatenseizoen: Meanwhile pay the U.S. car market further. General Motors yesterday announced a broad restructuring in which the dividend is deleted and payroll should fall by 20 percent. Some observers conclude a bankruptcy not matter, but the car manufacturer says that he firmly enough. Will the resultatenseizoen that these days, gaining momentum Maurice Lippens more equal? That is likely to happen. There is at least in the financial markets no longer discern ounce of optimism.

[Gerben]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')elgian and Dutch central banks and regulators were discussing measures to restore confidence in Fortis, the financial-services company whose stock plunged 35 percent in Brussels trading last week.
... Brussels and Amsterdam-based Fortis needs more capital after spending 24 billion euros ($35 billion) on ABN Amro Holding NV assets last year just as the U.S. subprime-mortgage market started to collapse.
... "Fortis failed to restore confidence on its own and that can only be done now with the help of the regulatory institutions or rivals,'' said Corne van Zeijl, a senior portfolio manager at SNS Asset Management
... Talks about a takeover of Fortis by ING Groep NV and BNP Paribas SA stalled late yesterday amid demands for state guarantees, De Standaard reported on its Web site, without saying where it got the information. The Sunday Times reported the Belgian central bank and regulator are preparing to bail out Fortis. The newspaper didn't say where it got the information.
... Fortis last week said it had earmarked for sale banking and insurance businesses that may be valued as high as 10 billion euros. The Belgian company said it won't sell assets at fire-sale prices and doesn't have an urgent need for funds.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', 'T')hey control my pension. Good that I have most in savings. Cash is king.

[benzoil]

Interesting. They own ABN Ambro, who owns LaSalle Bank - a large regional bank in the US Midwest. I wonder how a parent bank's woes affect its subsidiaries...

I'm guessing now that the US bailout won't be enough. This is now way too big. I hope I'm wrong, but dang.