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THE Fortis Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby Mesuge » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 16:05:19

The funny part, in that "fast crash" scenario, not even the majority of PO forum members will likely be able to mitigitate by cashing out or to do anything with their assets.

The next crash will be Argentina style but more global, closed banks incl. internet banking accounts, total IT infrustructure meltdown in that sector etc. This will wipe some serious % of the "virtual money" out of the financial system pretty easily.

The goldbugs and physical commodity squirrels will turn into multimillionaires and billionaires over night with the proviso, they can keep that news from their relatives and friends and therefore survive the first nasty weeks/months afterwards.

Following that logic, in the first stage of chaos it's quite likely that the governments will have to provide for basic needs (energy, food) by trading directly suitcases of gold/metals to exporting nations hand to hand. Which in turn means pretty tight oversight over any precious metals trade by mere mortals. Some "islands" or hubs of freedom might prevail, Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Emirates etc.
=> In all probability this translates into total wipe out of the middle class, how many of you have gold stashed in those safe havens.. ?
Last edited by Mesuge on Tue 01 Jul 2008, 16:14:54, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby gnm » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 16:14:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'T')he funny part, in that "fast crash" scenario, not even the majority of PO forum members will likely be able to mitigitate by cashing out or to do anything with their assets

Who keeps assets they can't access? All my "assets" are in my cellar. 8)
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby Mesuge » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 16:23:54

gnm> exactly, in short my point is that in this scenario any value if at all will be retained only by the uber-mega-doomers.

The fainter stock of lite-doomers, fashionable forum doomerosexuals, not mentioning the naive cornocupids will stand a little chance. It will be a quick meltdown all done within a span of few minutes, all digitally enhanced by the mighty information superhighway..
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby jdmartin » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 17:04:01

Is there anything about this in the mainstream media?? I've tried searching CNN & Yahoo and couldn't find this press information. If this shit is serious there should be something, somewhere on it because it would be a hell of a scoop.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby jbrovont » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 17:15:37

I think the video says it's from Yahoo! If cnn came out mid-day and said "6000 banks may fail tomorrow or next week," any attempt to use your cell phone would result in "There are no available connections for the number you are trying to reach. Please try your call again later." In short, CNN saying the financial system in the US was crashing would cause it to when everyone bailed, closed their checking accounts, etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'I')s there anything about this in the mainstream media?? I've tried searching CNN & Yahoo and couldn't find this press information. If this crap is serious there should be something, somewhere on it because it would be a hell of a scoop.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 17:16:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'W')ow. That OpEdNews guy stole my blog entry word for word, without a link back or anything.

Why write it again? [smilie=tellme.gif]
EDIT: (I was being funny)
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 17:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'I')s there anything about this in the mainstream media?? I've tried searching CNN & Yahoo and couldn't find this press information. If this crap is serious there should be something, somewhere on it because it would be a hell of a scoop.


Just google it!
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 20:26:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'T')he goldbugs and physical commodity squirrels will turn into multimillionaires and billionaires over night.

Mmm, sounds good.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 20:53:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'I')s there anything about this in the mainstream media?? I've tried searching CNN & Yahoo and couldn't find this press information. If this crap is serious there should be something, somewhere on it because it would be a hell of a scoop.

Okay, see the guy, Maurice Lippens, is Belgium's richest man. A count and all that. A billionaire. He's also the chairman of a large number of the world's 200 biggest corporations, amongst them Fortis. So when this guy says something, people in Europe listen. I don't understand either why U.S. media haven't picked up on this.

For those who understand Dutch, watch the interview with Lippens here at the Flemish public TV network's website. [first vid you see on that page]. Mind you, this is an excerpt for a large audience of non-financial experts. I will translate it for you, in bad English, so you can follow what the vid says:

"And now to the stock markets. Are the American financial markets heading for the biggest crash of the past century? Are they indeed facing the "total meltdown" which Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens predicts? And if so, how will Europe be affected? Lippens' words last week in our studios [the programme called "Terzake" - "Let's get to business"] have already caused a little storm in the financial world.

Hanne De Cautere and Guy Janssens report: [Shot of Lippens, saying:] It is going to get much worse in the United States, but in Europe too. We are really going towards a meltdown. We are going to face difficulties not only in the [financial] markets but in the real economy.

[Shot of Chernobyl - voice over]: A meltdown. It is the worst that can happen with a nuclear power plant. The reactor disintegrates. In short, the Chernobyl scenario.
[Shot of hysteric traders:] Maurice Lippens is painting the darkest picture imaginable. An absolute bourse crash.

The question is whether things will really turn out this way. In any case, the past year has already been horrible for the stock markets. The misery starts roughly a year ago in the U.S. Banks there have been handing out loans to people who can't pay them back [brief explanation of the subprime crisis]. The American people end up on the streets.

[Victim of subprime crisis:] Lost the house, sold everything, went bankrupt. Now I'm homeless.
[Woman:] We have a lot of grandkids. We can't have them visiting us. [She lives in a trailer now]. We are ashamed. We visit them instead, over at their house.

European banks got a beating too. Here you see people scrambling to get their money out of the bank - Northern Rock in the U.K. Many European banks own lots of assets of American banks. Both worlds are thus intertwined. And our own Bel-20 [Belgian bourse] is not immune for the crisis. The index has declined by 26% over the past year. The sharpest decline since the year 2002.

Especially the banking sector has been hit hard. KBC [big bank] has performed relatively well, by losing only 28%. But Dexia loses, in less than a year, 58% of its value. Fortis is King, and tumbled no less than 68%."

Okay, so that's it. Crappy piece of news. Lippens basically had to defend the capital injection his bank made. He introduced fresh stock far below the market price, making shares crash. He then went out to say that this injection was needed to make Fortis withstand the failing of possibly 6,000 American financial institutions and major corporations.

Does anybody seriously believe that if the U.S. financial sector crashes, a big bank like Fortis will be immune? Even after it got its hands on a few new fresh billions?
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby something_awfull » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 21:56:00

Are we there yet?
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 01 Jul 2008, 22:13:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', 'A')re we there yet?

He said: within a few days. They predict stormy weather by Friday over here.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby socrates1fan » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 01:06:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', 'A')re we there yet?
He said: within a few days. They predict stormy weather by Friday over here.

I'm probably too poor to notice the affects lol. Why haven't we felt it yet? I mean, we are all facing these tough economic times but it doesn't feel like this week is changing any faster than last week.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby Mesuge » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 05:53:49

Socrates> remember the end of roaring 1920s ? And that crash came about relatively fast both in the US/Europe/Worldwide, now it can play out only that much faster.

The signs are all there, rising energy demand/no supply, no new rafineries, oil company investment funds not proping up the free falling stock of Detroit anymore, ... , writing is on the wall..

The "positive message" is in the proportionality, as an example if the U.S. economy gets hit by 80% destruction, the E.U. only by 55% etc.. hah
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby lorenzo » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 09:32:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('socrates1fan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', 'A')re we there yet?
He said: within a few days. They predict stormy weather by Friday over here.
I'm probably too poor to notice the affects lol. Why haven't we felt it yet? I mean, we are all facing these tough economic times but it doesn't feel like this week is changing any faster than last week.

Maybe the proverbial cartoon character just ran off the cliff, and is now running in mid air. It has to fall some time soon now. In any case, you do have a point: ordinary citizens like you and me don't seem to feel much of all these "crises".

Gas prices are up, yes, but they don't really hurt. I don't drive less. My tiny investments aren't doing all that well, but luckily I put them in a portfolio that more or less guarantees modest returns. So here too, I don't really stress about things.

The problem is that a "crash" is a pretty violent event that happens suddenly, is unstoppable, and leaves nobody immune. So we'll have to wait and see. The good thing is that many people are at least prepared psychologically. They know something could be coming.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 10:13:36

I have tried to find out more details about Fortis said, without much success. Anyway someone else agrees with what they said about General Motors:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')M Bankruptcy `Not Impossible,' Merrill Analyst Says By Adam Haigh and Jeff Green
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. was cut to ``underperform'' from ``buy'' by Merrill Lynch & Co., which said ``bankruptcy is not impossible'' for the largest U.S. automaker.
``The key change in our outlook is a much lower forecast for U.S. auto sales that is driving a higher cash burn necessitating a much larger capital raise than the market is currently anticipating,'' New York-based analyst John Murphy wrote in a note to clients today.
Bloomberg
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby jdmartin » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 14:30:28

I searched and it appears to be a hoax as far as I can see. I suspected as much, because I don't believe for a second that CEOs are going to make public any kind of knowledge they might have or suspect about a global economic meltdown. They're going to save their own asses first, and that doesn't include making your stock options worthless.

My guess is people won't know what's hitting them until it's already hit them - they're not going to get an "Oh, by the way" from some CEO somewhere...
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby Gerben » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 15:48:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'I') searched and it appears to be a hoax as far as I can see. I suspected as much, because I don't believe for a second that CEOs are going to make public any kind of knowledge they might have or suspect about a global economic meltdown.

You mean you believe the article is a hoax? I have it in writing. Front page of the financial section in a large Dutch newspaper. (Yes I read Dutch) It doesn't have to happen that way. The article exists.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby JustaGirl » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 16:31:03

Well just look at the Dow right now, down 166. This is bad, real bad :(
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 16:38:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'I') searched and it appears to be a hoax as far as I can see. I suspected as much, because I don't believe for a second that CEOs are going to make public any kind of knowledge they might have or suspect about a global economic meltdown.
You mean you believe the article is a hoax? I have it in writing. Front page of the financial section in a large Dutch newspaper. (Yes I read Dutch) It doesn't have to happen that way. The article exists.

It's no hoax, and the basic story was repeated in several other publications, such as the Economist. Other than some minor translation problems, this thread fairly accurately represents the theme of what Fortis is saying.
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Re: Fortis chairman predicts total financial meltdown in wee

Unread postby Fences » Wed 02 Jul 2008, 17:01:34

I second Gerben and Lorenzo, this is true, not a hoax at all. I am Belgian, this story has been all over the main quality newspapers and state TV for the last couple of days.

As far as I understand, Votron (CEO of Fortis) is hedging against an expected financial meltdown in the US, and he is backed by Lippens, the chairman. And they're even taking an 68% free-fall in shares value as an acceptible consequence. Still seems credible to me.

I double checked the link and can confirm everything Lorenzo states in his post about the newsitem on Belgian (actually flemmish) state TV. Seems like some sensible people (a ceo and a chairman of a major Belgian-Dutch bank) have finally made a stand.
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