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THE Peak Food Thread pt 2

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Roy » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 07:14:51

:)
Last edited by Roy on Sun 12 Oct 2008, 11:03:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Micki » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 07:22:15

Roy, my reflection was more that we haven't heard about cannibalism in starving nations.
War etc seems to affect people in a different way and brings out more extremes. But do we know of any poor nation or place that resported to cannibalism? Haiti, North Korea, Darfur, Eritrea?
I can't think of any.
(Maybe there wasn't enough meet on the bones once they started thinking about it???)
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby JJ » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 07:36:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'R')oy, my reflection was more that we haven't heard about cannibalism in starving nations.
War etc seems to affect people in a different way and brings out more extremes. But do we know of any poor nation or place that resported to cannibalism? Haiti, North Korea, Darfur, Eritrea?
I can't think of any.
(Maybe there wasn't enough meet on the bones once they started thinking about it???)


my PO denialist co-worker said they had a special on CNN about the availability of body parts as specialty cuts of meat in Darfur last week...didn't see it though....
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby TheDude » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 10:32:53

There was suspiciously fresh meat on the black market during the Siege of Leningrad, too. People were making soup from leather coat buttons and the like.

No corn? Qu'ils mangent de la brioche.

US crop projected down 3.2% so far due to floods.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.


Thought Jack had fired up a blog. This is from Jan Lundberg.

Will. I. Be. Able. To. Drink. Your. Milkshake? :o
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby FoxV » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 14:16:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'c')ube's 333 theory
1) keep an eyeball on those 3 foods
2) production of all 3 will eventually drop
3) repeat this 3 years in a row

well with a bit of googling I've found that World Corn supply for this year is suppose to be 772 Million Tonnes (report was pre flooding btw) and World Corn demand is 779 Million tonnes

so that certainly reduces the 18tonnes of surplus wheat (especially considering that wheat has less calories per pound than corn).

Can any one find the supply/demand figures for Rice?
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby cube » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 15:03:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'w')isconsin_cur, thanks for those useful calculations. Looks like OF2's cherry-picked info just got slapped back into reality.
wisconsin_cur takes OF2 to school :lol:
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Zardoz » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 15:39:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'L')ooks like OF2's cherry-picked info just got slapped back into reality.

Nobody cherry-picks like OF. He should be granted Expert status on his cherry-picking skills alone.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby VMarcHart » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 18:46:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'A') 3% ton worldwide surplus of wheat between supply and demand not a very large buffer. :roll:
True, but is wheat the only item on the menu?

And before I get the troll label ... thanks for the quotes. Quite insightful.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby cube » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 19:03:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'A') 3% ton worldwide surplus of wheat between supply and demand not a very large buffer. :roll:
True, but is wheat the only item on the menu?

And before I get the troll label ... thanks for the quotes. Quite insightful.
Only people who truly deserve it get the "Troll" label.
It requires a habitual and continuous attempt to obfuscate the facts and that's why OF2 is on my ignore list.
//
Now to answer your question this has already been mentioned in the previous posts but I'll summarize it.
corn, wheat, rice make up 50% of world food intake.
Only wheat has shown a gain while the rest is in decline.

I think the world will hit peak population in less then 10 years.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby VMarcHart » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 20:07:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'O')nly people who truly deserve it get the "Troll" label.
I survived the troll patrol. :)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') think the world will hit peak population in less then 10 years.
Then what? Total chaos, or will we behave?
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby copious.abundance » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 20:45:52

Do we really need *another* thread on this same topic, in addition to the long one in Current Energy News??
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'N')ow to answer your question this has already been mentioned in the previous posts but I'll summarize it.
corn, wheat, rice make up 50% of world food intake.
Only wheat has shown a gain while the rest is in decline.

But anyway, here is some extremely *non* cherry-picking information. Here is world production of cube's "big three." You can't get any less "cherry picking" than this.

Image

Image

The CBOT doesn't have nice handy-dandy charts for rice, so I'll use a recent article instead:

--> FAO expects rice production to rise by 1.8 percent in 2008 <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld rice production is expected to increase in 2008 by 12 million tonnes or 1.8 percent, assuming normal weather conditions, FAO said today. Production increases would ease the current very tight supply situation in key rice producing countries, according to the first FAO forecast for this year. International rice trade is expected to decrease, mainly due to restrictions in main exporting countries.

Sizable production increases are expected in all the major Asian rice producing countries, especially Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and Thailand, where supply and demand are currently rather stretched. Governments in these countries have already announced a series of incentives to raise production.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Tyler_JC » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 21:43:00

1. The United States is the world's largest food exporter by a huge margin. Wheat, corn, beef, soybeans, sorghum, you name it. The American surplus of corn alone is 55 MILLION tons. I don't know what that looks like in terms of calories but I imagine it's a rather large number.

2. The US is attacked at the UN every year because it produces too much food. So much food that it actually drives down the price of agricultural products in developing countries, leading to market distortions and the destruction of small/local farmers in many countries.

3.Half of US Foods Goes to Waste!

4. Half of Americans are overweight and could stand to lose a couple pounds.

5. Healthier Americans would consume less food (no need to sustain that extra body fat).

6. When we finally give up this corn ethanol nonsense (and we're already starting to drop it), that quarter of the corn crop that is currently being burned will be shifted over to the food industry.

7. Most of America's grain is given to animals. As we all know, meat is an extremely grain-intensive food source.

Basically, I'm not worried. I'm so not worried about it that I'm literally betting my life on it by ignoring the advice to run off to the countryside and start a farm.

Let's compare qualities of life in 20 years. :)
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby yesplease » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 23:31:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'Y')eah big excess :roll:


Math help online

Image
A decade ago, the grain used for livestock from the US alone would've been able to feed nearly 20% of the population of the world. Include waste from spoilage and whatnot and we're at nearly another ~2 billion. Toss in grain use for livestock world wide and we're probably at ~50+% of current food production. That's a pretty big excess IMO!

We could probably double food production and we would still have people starving. It's not about lack of food, it's about greed and waste, which has been around for decades wrt the farming revolution. Besides, how can you condone stuff w/ absolute headlines like what the OP linked?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Jenab6 » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 00:00:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vetusfirma', 'b')ut micki, your not cool if you don't scandalize by using the word cannibal. and there is also the donner party.

I kind of think they will make good fertilizer, and we are gonna need fertilizer, you know like the pilgrims. Or we could boil them down like whale's and sell the oil, or use it in lamps. Romans had a lot of luck burning them. And people are cheap, look how many there are, and its a renewable resource, you will never run out.

Maybe we could make a book about 101 uses for......well you get the idea.

CANNIBALISM FOR DUMMIES.
Part 1. The best nibbles.
* Ladyfingers.
* Rump Roast
Part 2. Things you can make from People Parts.
* Lampshades.
* Soap.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby cube » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 00:12:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '1'). The United States is the world's largest food exporter by a huge margin. Wheat, corn, beef, soybeans, sorghum, you name it. The American surplus of corn alone is 55 MILLION tons. I don't know what that looks like in terms of calories but I imagine it's a rather large number.
.....
7. Most of America's grain is given to animals. As we all know, meat is an extremely grain-intensive food source.

Basically, I'm not worried. I'm so not worried about it that I'm literally betting my life on it by ignoring the advice to run off to the countryside and start a farm.
Nobody ever said Americans were in trouble.
I never was a fan of the "run off to the countryside" theory.
however...
This is a serious issue.
Die-off always begins at the "edges".
Half the people on this planet live on $2 / day.
With a budget like that, these folks aren't eating California almonds!
A triple increase in grain prices would guarantee a Malthusian Die-off.
This bull market in commodities is not over.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 00:54:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'Y')eah big excess :roll:


Math help online
A decade ago, the grain used for livestock from the US alone would've been able to feed nearly 20% of the population of the world. Include waste from spoilage and whatnot and we're at nearly another ~2 billion. Toss in grain use for livestock world wide and we're probably at ~50+% of current food production. That's a pretty big excess IMO!

We could probably double food production and we would still have people starving. It's not about lack of food, it's about greed and waste, which has been around for decades wrt the farming revolution. Besides, how can you condone stuff w/ absolute headlines like what the OP linked?


And I will still be eating grain fed beef and throwing my leftovers to the chickens while many others are starving. I case you have not noticed we do not live in a just world. You can hate the fact or you can embrace it, the fact, however, will not change.

Yes people will be starving around the globe while I am still throwing away unwanted portions from McDonalds. Last Time I checked there is no way to transport that food without spoiling it.

Yes people will starve while producing nations are rolling in excess production. If we shipped off the excess that would reduce local supply and we would vote bums into office who would institute policies to reduce exports and keep the price low at home (a' la the rice exporting nations which stopped all exports in order to keep the price of rice down at home).

Can we measure the point where all of those things will break? Of course not, right now we just have the projections for consumption and production that we have... and in a world populated by over 6 billion people a few million tonnes is not much of an excess.
Last edited by wisconsin_cur on Thu 26 Jun 2008, 02:37:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby cube » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 02:35:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A') decade ago, the grain used for livestock from the US alone would've been able to feed nearly 20% of the population of the world. Include waste from spoilage and whatnot and we're at nearly another ~2 billion. Toss in grain use for livestock world wide and we're probably at ~50+% of current food production. That's a pretty big excess IMO!

We could probably double food production and we would still have people starving. It's not about lack of food, it's about greed and waste, which has been around for decades wrt the farming revolution. Besides, how can you condone stuff w/ absolute headlines like what the OP linked?


And I will still be eating grain fed beef and throwing my leftovers to the chickens while many others are starving. I case you have not noticed we do not live in a just world. You can hate the fact or you can embrace it will not change.
....
Bingo! wisconsin_cur
This makes the cornucopia "lets save people by not feeding grain to cattle" a ridiculously weak argument.
Why should Joe Sixpack give up on meat?
So there can be even more hungry mouths to feed in the 3rd world next year!
How does that help anything except make the die-off even greater?
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby Homesteader » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 07:46:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'Y')eah big excess :roll:


Math help online
A decade ago, the grain used for livestock from the US alone would've been able to feed nearly 20% of the population of the world. Include waste from spoilage and whatnot and we're at nearly another ~2 billion. Toss in grain use for livestock world wide and we're probably at ~50+% of current food production. That's a pretty big excess IMO!

We could probably double food production and we would still have people starving. It's not about lack of food, it's about greed and waste, which has been around for decades wrt the farming revolution. Besides, how can you condone stuff w/ absolute headlines like what the OP linked?


And I will still be eating grain fed beef and throwing my leftovers to the chickens while many others are starving. I case you have not noticed we do not live in a just world. You can hate the fact or you can embrace it, the fact, however, will not change.



Yup. Peopel need to come up with solutions based on how things are, not how they dream things could be in a perfect world.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
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Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
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Re: You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food.

Postby yesplease » Thu 26 Jun 2008, 15:40:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'I')n a perfect world, less grains could be given to livestock and instead used for human consumption. But the problem is that we don't live in a perfect world. It's never going to happen. People want their meat, no matter what. Same with driving cars. I'm so tired of idealistic-minded people saying that alternative technologies and conservation are going to make everything ok. It won't because that's not the way the real world works. The real world is not a controlled laboratory experiment. The real world is full of unpredictable, selfish, and greedy people who will never voluntarily give up what they think they need.
Ditto for overly optimistic scenarios, and the same goes for those predicting huge "die-offs". However I think they are both useful as possible courses that could be taken as well as illustrations of the most basic human characteristics. Along those lines, people probably aren't starving simply because of fossil fuel price increases, or even starving for the most part due to them, since they've been starving for a long time. They're starving because groups in America and Africa, or whoever, are greedy. Sure, a population already stretched to the brink by a corrupt regime who was starving in the first place is probably going to be hit harder by rising food prices. But that was just the straw on the camel's back. The problem is that their living in a hell hole on a minimal, or worse, diet, for the jollies of some other group.
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