[Bas]

great stuff. First time I've heard anyone being this doomerish in the MSM, spot on in the feeling he brings across about the near future as far as I'm concerned.

[dinopello]

Seems like the same tune I've always heard from Hirsch. He's one serious dude.



---------->Topics merged by wisconsin_cur<-----------------

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'S')eems like the same tune I've always heard from Hirsch. He's one serious dude.

[pedalling_faster]

i like the condescending smile of the woman from Florida On, when she forces herself to say the words, "hypothetical $500 a barrel oil."

she doesn't show her teeth much, during that particular smile.

i wish Michael Ruppert had stayed in business and started doing Peak Oil webcasts.

[MyOldTDiIsStillGoing]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schadenfreude', '
')Of course, I'm one who strongly suspects that this peak oil knowledge and its repercussions has been knocking around in heads such as Dick Cheney's since the 90's. And the whole Iraq venture was to impose the US in the region ahead of any such global summit.

How could the US not be aware of oil peaking when this country was the first large producer to experience decline and its geopolitical ramifications? The NSA and CIA and White House and Congress have had 40 years to ponder this question.

[Graeme]

Here's an interesting commentary by Jim Kingsdale (an investment manager - some of you may know him) particularly in view of the warnings by Dr Hirsch. The commentary has mixed views (optimistic and pessimistic) but ends with the prediction that the stock market will crash, which will please some in the peak oil community.

Is 'Peak Oil' Already Affecting the Stock Market?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')irsch’s discussion of the economic constriction and great weakness in financial markets that he expects will constrain our normal capacity for remediation of the problems is particularly sobering because of his expertise in evaluating exactly such macroeconomic questions. He adds that voluntary reduced oil production (hoarding) by some oil exporting countries will exacerbate the scarcity of oil itself. His essential point is that the dimensions of the global economy’s dependence on oil are so huge that its scarcity will be crippling and will preclude any easy solution.

I think Hirsch is essentially correct. But I am more optimistic that electrical transportation solutions to the oil shortage can be substituted in OECD countries at a faster pace than Hirsch seems to think is possible, thus perhaps limiting the most extreme economic difficulty to a period of only five to ten years rather than twenty. After all, if the U.S. could go from a standing start in 1940 to substantial war production just a couple of years later, we could accomplish a similar transformation of our transportation systems in a shorter period than might be able to be forecasted.

We know that Hirsch is right; there will come a time when oil scarcity will hobble the economy so severely that the stock market will crash and it will not be profitable to own any stocks, even energy stocks. As I finished reading this interview, I asked myself a question that I find is recurring more frequently. Has that time come already?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'H')ere's an interesting commentary by Jim Kingsdale (an investment manager - some of you may know him) particularly in view of the warnings by Dr Hirsch. The commentary has mixed views (optimistic and pessimistic) but ends with the prediction that the stock market will crash, which will please some in the peak oil community.

[Graeme]

DP, What I objected to above was the certainty or inevitability of economic doom and gloom. In spite of this (I am not an economist nor do I invest in the stock market) , I have since found that some progress has been made in predicting stock market crashes. For instance, this study by Sornette, and this one by Kiyono - both chance discoveries by me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Our theory is tailored to identify anomalies, bubbles and their end," Sornette said.

Sornette argues that the underlying cause can be found months and even years before -- in the build-up of cooperative speculation.

Sornette concludes that most explanations other than "cooperative self-organization" fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which markets lay the foundation for catastrophe.

"Collective behavior theory predicts robust signatures of speculative phases of financial markets, both in accelerating bubbles, as well as decelerating 'antibubbles,'" Sornette said.

[TheDude]

Kingsdale also says the tankers Iran is holding offshore are "unable to unload due to lack of appropriate refining capacity." Iran produces oil they can't refine? Or imported same? Why would Iran import oil they can't handle instead of finished product?

cjwirth right off the bat points out the difficulty of electrifying the personal vehicle fleet. Maybe aside from Staniford I've never read a single dispatch from an EV happy cornucopian which dealt at all with the limited production at the moment; they all baldly assume the market will kick into high gear four years from now, or that Manhattan Project II will put PHEVs in every garage, or that we're in a bubble - JD's cant is being picked up in various comments sections of articles like this, I see.

[grampybone]

Excellent video. Thanks for posting it!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he chart of the day lists 16 Iranian ships, of which 13 are idling either at the country's Kharg Island oil loading facility or the nearby Soroosh Terminal, according to AISLive data on Bloomberg. The signals of two other vessels at the facilities were tracked last week. Each supertanker has the capacity to store about 2 million barrels of crude.

Ghanimifard said that the ``number of vessels will decrease by the end of June,'' as refineries that can process Iran's sulfur-rich crude reopen after maintenance.

[Graeme]

Speaking of batteries, TheDude, I saw this article today:

McCain: $300 Million for New Battery

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Republican presidential nominee-in-waiting is proposing a $300 million government prize to whomever can develop an automobile battery that far surpasses existing technology.

[TheDude]

The US vehicle fleet is 10 times larger than Brazil's. Much of that is 2nd etc. cars of course. To fully supply individual cars for commuters it'd be six times what Brazil has total. Plus McCain is off the mark in the first place: Brazil has ca. 23 million cars total, of which about 5 million are FFVs as of March. Even counting their 3 million pure ethanol vehicles he's stretching the truth.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MyOldTDiIsStillGoing', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Schadenfreude', '
')Of course, I'm one who strongly suspects that this peak oil knowledge and its repercussions has been knocking around in heads such as Dick Cheney's since the 90's. And the whole Iraq venture was to impose the US in the region ahead of any such global summit.

How could the US not be aware of oil peaking when this country was the first large producer to experience decline and its geopolitical ramifications? The NSA and CIA and White House and Congress have had 40 years to ponder this question.

[mcgowanjm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')raining his sights on Detroit, the senator noted Brazil went from about 5 percent to over 70 percent flex-fuel capability in its vehicles in just three years. At the same time, U.S. automakers—who helped with Brazil's shift—say it will take them longer just to reach a 50 percent goal.

"Whether it takes a meeting with automakers during my first month in office, or my signature on an act of Congress, we will meet the goal of a swift conversion of American vehicles away from oil," McCain said in his remarks.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')he US vehicle fleet is 10 times larger than Brazil's. Much of that is 2nd etc. cars of course. To fully supply individual cars for commuters it'd be six times what Brazil has total. Plus McCain is off the mark in the first place: Brazil has ca. 23 million cars total, of which about 5 million are FFVs as of March. Even counting their 3 million pure ethanol vehicles he's stretching the truth.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')he US vehicle fleet is 10 times larger than Brazil's. Much of that is 2nd etc. cars of course. To fully supply individual cars for commuters it'd be six times what Brazil has total. Plus McCain is off the mark in the first place: Brazil has ca. 23 million cars total, of which about 5 million are FFVs as of March. Even counting their 3 million pure ethanol vehicles he's stretching the truth.

[Graeme]

DP, Please have a look at the articles I posted on this page about biofuel production particularly Venter's genetically-modified bugs grown in vats, and the article by Khosla.

[seazar]

http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarket ... f_peak_oil

[eastbay]

[Lengthy discussion about Carrying Capacity was moved to the Carrying Capacity Forum, Tyler_JC]

He wants all of us in the peak oil movement to shut our traps.
And to pipe down until this economic calamity passes... lol. Good luck dude.
Anyone interested in taking his advice? I can think of a few who should.

(I wonder if all the shut your damn mouths threads should be merged... hmmm)
Merged with THE Robert Hirsch Thread.-FL