[Flowerr]

"The MORON LONGS"

Yep, thats a clown.

How to steal from people legally, this is why the small fry cannot win they get feignted.

The market is a large pond where the sharks dispense fishfood to bring in the small fish, and then they eat the moron longs..

If thew small fry would just leave, the sharks will start eating themselves.

Ever drive by the fairgrounds and see them setting up their tents, the elephants, the stands and ballons? And your first thought is "Get the kids, Lets get fleeced."

[Flowerr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('greenworm', '
')
A well planned move to make money.

[greenworm]

I especially liked, " the great thing about the market is that it has nothing to do with the actual stocks". Classic.

[I_Like_Plants]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flowerr', ' ')feignted.

[truecougarblue]

I'd say the next black swan comes around the corner in August when the patches put in place last year come due.

[TreeFarmer]

September to October time frame is a good bet. When people need to buy heating oil at $4/gallon or Nat Gas at $14/mcf but don't have any money because $4 gas has taken it all, we'll see some problems. I'm betting these people will want to buy on credit and the finance people will have to decide if they are a good risk or not.

It often seems that October is the harbinger of doom. Maybe it is the realization that summer is over and we are headed into winter that does it.

TF

[mmasters]

I think the odds are higher for getting buried by a Volcano in Oregon than Wall Street collapsing.

[TheDude]

I've been thinking The Coming Heating Oil Crisis should have its own thread. People are going to freeze en maase if someone doesn't bail them out.

I keep waiting for investor confidence to fall straight through the floorboards, too. That'll take prolonged shortages or waves of blackouts perhaps, people want to believe this is a temporary setback for BAU.

Ayoob - you in OR already? We have many varieties of countryside - not to mention high real estate prices and onerous property taxes. I'm attracted to Kunstler/Orlov's advice of moving to a real small town (ca. 3k) but as it is I own my house outright, and might stay put for now until the dust settles.

[burtonridr]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') think the odds are higher for getting buried by a Volcano in Oregon than Wall Street collapsing.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', 'I') think the odds are higher for getting buried by a Volcano in Oregon than Wall Street collapsing.

[Denny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')'ve been thinking The Coming Heating Oil Crisis should have its own thread. People are going to freeze en maase if someone doesn't bail them out.

[alokin]

That's not true. Not hundred years ago. When I was a kid there where still many people heating with coal. Or these ugly oil ovens.
and room temperatures were down. If you heat you house at 1 °C less, you're saving a lot of energy.

[patience]

In terms of inflation, Wall Street has already lost a lot, and it continues to jitter along sideways now. I expect a long drawn out bumpy slide down, propped at every bump by the Fed team, as they have been doing. I've already read comments that your money is better invested in food than in a 401K. As more people figure out they need their investment money for food, fuel and heat, the only ones left with money in stocks will be the big players. They seem to have their own way of seeing value in the market. Yes, I think it will continue to exist, but in the long term will probably return to the pariah status it had in the years after 1929, at least for the small investor.

edit: The whole economic picture I see unfolding looks a lot like what my elders described to me about the "dirty thirties". Poor people everywhere, trying to hold on to whatever scraps of their former life they can. Men in out of style suits, wearing Italian shoes with cardboard in the sole to cover the holes, and looking for a nickel any way they can get it. Ex-brokers buying a cup of coffee in a cheap restaurant, then adding all the sugar they can get in the cup for cheap calories. Then they go to the rest room to shave with a worn out razor, trim their hair, and wash up before going somewhere to beg, borrow or steal sustenance for the day.

[Kingcoal]

There is no reason for the NYSE to "collapse," however stock prices will probably plunge. Right now, it looks like the Airline industry is first in line.

[biofuel13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'T')here is no reason for the NYSE to "collapse," however stock prices will probably plunge. Right now, it looks like the Airline industry is first in line.

[allenwrench]

I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball.

Much of the stock market was / is fueled by the proliferation of new funds. Without the constant creation of funds to fill their portfolios the stock market would be at lower levels.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

But when I think of the stock market I think of Charles Ponzi. The man credited with inventing the first pyramid scheme.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi

We live in a society of compulsive gamblers and not investors. Watch CNBC and see the Ponzi scheme in action with all the BS they throw at you.

I marvel at the billions lost every day with the sub-prime debacle and how it is replaced at a blink of an eye. The government doesn't have to even print out the money, they just magnetize a silicon chip to create billions.

Sustainability...lets be honest, we only pay it lip service.

We talk of living in a sustainable world, yet our actions betray our true feelings. All we have to do is to look at the stock market to see what happens when growth declines even a little.

Even if a company yields stable earning, but does not grow its earnings it is looked down upon. Stability and balance is part of a sustainable footprint, yet we shun such balance.

A good book that discusses concepts of sustainability is: 'Peak Everything' by Richard Heinberg

America is built on debt and spending.

70% of our 'economic heath,' better termed as 'economic sickness' is based on consumer spending. When the consumer can't compulsively spend any longer our economy collapses...we are not a healthy country.

With one breath we talk about cutting global warming and how we have to cut our dependence of fossil fuel.

Then with the next breath we demand no cut backs in our standard of living, we must spend and consume above all else...build more, build faster, build bigger.

The GDP must only go up, up and away...all the while this consumption just increases global warming and keeps depleting the fossil fuels faster and faster.

Sick...sick..sick mentality, buy more cars, build more houses and monstrosities of architecture, spend more but 'cut back' to save our dear fossil fuels.

Consumption is ingrained in us and we know no other way. And even if we wished to amend our ways, how could all our retirement funds take the hit?

Our economy is not based on sustainable health - it is based low interest credit to encourage compulsive spending, debt and living a life of constant consumption with a 'disposable mentality' when it comes to durable goods.

All this consumption to artificially fuel our economy to make our retirement funds only go up contributes to more and more global warming and the depletion of our natural resources.

Then the governments juggle the numbers to make the inflation figures seem artificially low, so everyone's retirement portfolio will make them happy so they will continue to buy and consume more...and on it goes....IT IS ALL WE KNOW and the bill is coming due soon!

[allenwrench]

One other point.

Billions are transferred with the imported oil the US buys. The oil exporting nations have to put that money someplace. As long as they favor US paper over precious metals or commodities, the stock market and our debt may have some support.

[kernull]

not WS , but US collapse, nobody knows when , because it is not possible to predict, but some gurus have spoken:

July 17, 2006: "The timetable for this economic collapse is unknown,
but it's very unlikely to happen in the next year or two. A collapse
by 2012 is certainly possible, and seeing it by 2020 is almost
certain."
http://www.naturalnews.com/019659.html

April 8th, 2008: ¨Hyperinflation could be experienced as early as 2010"
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292

23 January 2008: "Billionaire investor George Soros said ... from
four to 10 years.¨
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/artic ... _page_id=2

"Official CPI could be running in double-digits by year-end 2008.
Again, the current circumstance will evolve into a hyperinflationary
depression, then a great depression. Although such is not likely much
before 2010, or after 2018, the financial end game for the current
markets will tend to come sooner rather than later and will break with
surprising speed when it hits¨
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Ruff/ruff_apr212008.html

April 17, 2008: "Economist Walter (John) Williams issued a special
report on the evolving hyperinflation that he sees coming into the
U.S. as early as 2010"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_0 ... 41708.html

[biofuel13]

Seeing a nice sell off this morning...now that we've broken below 12,000 the bottom can drop out any time.

[hironegro]

As long as there are publically traded companies that continue to make profit on equity Wall Street won't collapse.