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The disastrous effects of $250 oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby yull » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 06:44:21

Remember the oil price affects us well beyond what we pay at the pump. If I recall right only a minority of oil consumption is used for personal residential transport - most of it goes into industry, trade, airlines, food, plastics, extracting other resources etc etc. The price of gasoline is only the very tip of the iceberg and it's effects elsewhere probably affect us more than that price at the pump.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby Neuromancer » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 08:01:33

"Remember the oil price affects us well beyond what we pay at the pump. If I recall right only a minority of oil consumption is used for personal residential transport - most of it goes into industry, trade, airlines, food, plastics, extracting other resources etc etc. The price of gasoline is only the very tip of the iceberg and it's effects elsewhere probably affect us more than that price at the pump."

:(

That is right. Some people tend to see only the impact on driving, but this is much bigger. Industry, agriculture ... it's all about oil.

Hard times. ahead.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby Heineken » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 08:32:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'I')'m still trying to figure out why so many people cannot see the big picture. Maybe they don't want to see it.

Newer members here, please listen to what MQ and DP are saying. They know what they are talking about.

There is no realistic, large scale replacement for crude oil and natural gas. None. That's what makes peak oil so serious. Unrestricted growth cannot continue any more. We have reached the limits of modern society. So-called alternative technologies are all dependent on the availability cheap oil and gasoline to build and maintain. So is large-scale farming (fertilizers, farm equipment, and food transportation).

Gasoline isn't the only thing that will soon become unaffordable. Everything is about to become very expensive, because modern society cannot function normally without cheap and abundant fossil fuels.

And Monte, I agree about gasoline use in the US. Most Americans will cut back on everything else to be able to continue driving. The dependence and automobile love affair runs that deep


Electric cars will solve everything, according to some. We'll just switch over.

Electric farm tractors! Why not?

Plenty of coal left for electricity. And don't forget those thorium breeder reactors.

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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby nocar » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 11:15:30

Fredrik, I think it is a terrible bad idea for European countries to try to lower motor fuel prices. Low income people, especially women, already live without owning a car. They manage with public transport, bicycles and an occasional taxi and so can a lot of other people who currently drive cars.

For people in the countryside with little public transport, who might get into hardship due to high oil prices, it is much better to give them some general tax rebates or 'country living allowances'. That way they can either afford higher driving costs or become creative with car pooling or do shopping for their neighbors while doing their own and other such solutions that save gasoline.

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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby sittinguy » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 15:55:48

At $4 a gallon alot of people are already consolidating their trips out. A couple weeks ago My aunt invited us to dinner, she lives about 20 miles away. And on the way me and the wife were trying to figure out for fun if the $12 in gas was worth it. Naturally it was worth it to spend time with the family and she was making ribs for dinner. But we were actually doing the math.

I think the same thing about people driving no matter the cost. I used to think $6 was a tipping point, but I have raised it to $7
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby mos6507 » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 16:34:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Electric cars will solve everything, according to some. We'll just switch over.

Electric farm tractors! Why not?

Plenty of coal left for electricity. And don't forget those thorium breeder reactors.

Plug in and go!


Again, perfect is enemy of the good. To many here, anything that blunts the pain of peak oil is worthless unless it completely eliminates all our problems until the sun engulfs the earth. Some people would much rather the invisible hand act completely unrestrained in handing us the bitch-slapping we deserve.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby threadbear » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 17:33:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', 'T')hat many people absolutely refuse to consider carpooling I think is really funny.

At some point over the past 20 years middle class Americans -- especially women -- became absolutely petrified of strangers.


When you consider a good half of the population of the US and Canada are descended from pioneers who braved near insurmountable odds to survive, it's pretty astounding. They're descendants of groups like the Donner party, survivors of raids by first nation original occupants, scalping parties, sub zero winters in pitiful shacks, crop failures, small pox, operations performed by barbers without anaesthetics, etc...

But these are all great acts that require great sacrifice, stamina, and bravery. What Americans have a problem with are the little mundane acts that erode what they perceive as their personal freedom. Riding with another person conflicts with the open frontier myth, going it alone, the triumph of the individual, etc... If carpooling to work could be reframed as a hero's journey you can only accomplish with another hero, it would be easier for them to accept.

It's not about fear, it's about "freedom"
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby hironegro » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 17:47:44

I think we are going to see a lot of demand destruction before it hits 250. When the price goes to 5 dollars a gallon people will cancel trips and carpool. I think we'll see a more people cutting back on dinning out and eating processed foods, and simply buy produce, chicken pork, and bread.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 18:50:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') think we are going to see a lot of demand destruction before it hits 250.


You mean economic collapse don't you?

Conservation or reduced consumption due to price is the same thing as telling retailers they can't sell as much.

Connect the dots.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby threadbear » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 19:27:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'I') think we are going to see a lot of demand destruction before it hits 250.


You mean economic collapse don't you?

Conservation or reduced consumption due to price is the same thing as telling retailers they can't sell as much.

Connect the dots.


Exactly.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby Heineken » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 22:12:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Electric cars will solve everything, according to some. We'll just switch over.

Electric farm tractors! Why not?

Plenty of coal left for electricity. And don't forget those thorium breeder reactors.

Plug in and go!


Again, perfect is enemy of the good. To many here, anything that blunts the pain of peak oil is worthless unless it completely eliminates all our problems until the sun engulfs the earth. Some people would much rather the invisible hand act completely unrestrained in handing us the bitch-slapping we deserve.


I don't think the societal groupthink response to our problems (electric and H cars, thorium reactors, biofuels, all that other techno stuff) is good. Forget perfect.

We can't just replace the parts of the machine. We can't even replace the machine with another. We need to dismantle and abandon it, methodically and rationally. Otherwise the machine (and its operators) will be gotten rid of for us, painfully indeed. The start of the disappearance of the airline industry is exhibit A. Just a year or so ago they launched the world's largest airliner, bragging about how fuel-efficient it was! Projections of huge increases in passenger traffic, extending out for decades, were rampant. Crazy.

Transcending all, we need to get smaller and fewer. Until I hear talk and see action that center on that, I know our situation is hopeless.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby cube » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 00:13:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '.')..
I don't think the societal groupthink response to our problems (electric and H cars, thorium reactors, biofuels, all that other techno stuff) is good. Forget perfect.
Unfortunately I am fully confident society will throw whatever precious resources we have into dead-end technologies and ridiculous mitigation efforts. It will be a catastrophic misallocation of capital.
Hell, how many times have people on this board advocated dead-end mitigation scenarios?
Graeme's technology thread would be an infamous example.
However I do not believe in lying or "fudging the numbers" to promote my ideology so having said that it pains me to admit that there are a whole lot more people in everyday society that think like Graeme rather then say MontyQuest.

That alone should guarantee a very hard collapse. 8)
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby Fredrik » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 02:35:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nocar', 'F')redrik, I think it is a terrible bad idea for European countries to try to lower motor fuel prices. Low income people, especially women, already live without owning a car. They manage with public transport, bicycles and an occasional taxi and so can a lot of other people who currently drive cars.

For people in the countryside with little public transport, who might get into hardship due to high oil prices, it is much better to give them some general tax rebates or 'country living allowances'. That way they can either afford higher driving costs or become creative with car pooling or do shopping for their neighbors while doing their own and other such solutions that save gasoline.


You're right of course. I was taking a more narrow view of trying to maintain the current economic paradigm for a short while longer than other nations in a "last man standing" scenario. But of course the economic collapse will eventually hit everywhere. What remains to be seen is how far a societal collapse advances in each country, and what kind of economy rises in places where society doesn't descend into chaos.

I'm not that desperate about transport actually. People will carpool, take the bus, drive much less as they're unemployed and there is aviable alternative for at least a modest amount of fuel for public transport (at least in forest-rich Northern regions). I'm most worried about how the unemployed, impoverished people will act while the economy and culture are being transformed for the post-cheap-energy era.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby Heineken » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 07:55:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fredrik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nocar', 'F')redrik, I think it is a terrible bad idea for European countries to try to lower motor fuel prices. Low income people, especially women, already live without owning a car. They manage with public transport, bicycles and an occasional taxi and so can a lot of other people who currently drive cars.

For people in the countryside with little public transport, who might get into hardship due to high oil prices, it is much better to give them some general tax rebates or 'country living allowances'. That way they can either afford higher driving costs or become creative with car pooling or do shopping for their neighbors while doing their own and other such solutions that save gasoline.


You're right of course. I was taking a more narrow view of trying to maintain the current economic paradigm for a short while longer than other nations in a "last man standing" scenario. But of course the economic collapse will eventually hit everywhere. What remains to be seen is how far a societal collapse advances in each country, and what kind of economy rises in places where society doesn't descend into chaos.

I'm not that desperate about transport actually. People will carpool, take the bus, drive much less as they're unemployed and there is aviable alternative for at least a modest amount of fuel for public transport (at least in forest-rich Northern regions). I'm most worried about how the unemployed, impoverished people will act while the economy and culture are being transformed for the post-cheap-energy era.


Unfortunately, the $250 oil prospect cannot be viewed in isolation. Remember, it will be accompanied by "peak everything"---topsoil, fresh water, coal, uranium, metal ores, timber, you name it. Plus there's the little item of global warming to contend with, the impact of which will be exaggerated at your latitude. Perhaps you won't be so forest-rich after bark beetles and conflagrations take a crack at your forests.

I know this thread is about $250 oil, but we need always to keep the other problems in mind, because they will hugely exacerbate the negative impacts of that pricey oil. Analyses that focus on energy costs all by themselves are pretty meaningless.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby VMarcHart » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 14:19:50

My 2 cents.

$250/bbl, or $10/gas (or whatever it will be), will be tough, but not disastrous. I'm wingging, but I assume few on this site know what disastrous really means. My grandparents lived WWII; 6 disastrous years. We have it easy.

$10/gas disastrous? Nah.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby ColossalContrarian » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 15:41:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'M')y 2 cents.

$250/bbl, or $10/gas (or whatever it will be), will be tough, but not disastrous. I'm wingging, but I assume few on this site know what disastrous really means. My grandparents lived WWII; 6 disastrous years. We have it easy.

$10/gas disastrous? Nah.


we're a lot more dependent on oil now than we were during ww2. you can't even fathom the impact $10 gas would have on the US economy.

remember, we sent our manufacturing overseas...
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby VMarcHart » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 16:01:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'w')e're a lot more dependent on oil now than we were during ww2. you can't even fathom the impact $10 gas would have on the US economy.
I was referring to disastrous as in no food, no housing, no clothing, no heat, no light, no medicine, nothing. $10 gas will be real, real tough, but not disastrous.
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Re: The disastrous effects of $250 oil

Postby Heineken » Wed 18 Jun 2008, 21:49:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', 'w')e're a lot more dependent on oil now than we were during ww2. you can't even fathom the impact $10 gas would have on the US economy.
I was referring to disastrous as in no food, no housing, no clothing, no heat, no light, no medicine, nothing. $10 gas will be real, real tough, but not disastrous.


When the supermarket shelves are stripped because of breakdown of the interstate trucking system, where will you get your food from, VMarc?

So many of us believe that disaster happens only to others, or far in the past or far in the future. This is to be expected.
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