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Re: Another Oil price Record

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby lowem » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 12:00:59

Just another $10 and change and we will get $150.

So much for the Saudi's "pledge" to increase output by 500 kbpd.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby Peleg » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 12:09:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', 'J')ust another $10 and change and we will get $150.

So much for the Saudi's "pledge" to increase output by 500 kbpd.


They can't really maintain that. Think about it, the incentive for upping production was way back at $90 per barrel (when was that?) No, if they do come in with some stuff it will be goop not high grade oil, that does'nt help anyone. What helps is for OPEC to finally come clean and tell the world the way it is. Yes, there will be a price shock, but at least you are giving people the information they need to make informed decisions about their personal energy use and their future.

Right now I feel better betting on the Saudi's to have a conscience than the current Administration, but then again Bush has told us often that we need to get off oil. Apparently we prayed him into office so that he would tell us only what we want to hear. Stuff like 'our way of life is non-negotiable.' and 'God bless America.'
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Re: Another Record ($139.16)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 12:12:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'D')oesn't crude look like it's forming a bullish pennant? That's like classic technical analysis textbook stuff there.


Breakout today.

Flagpole replication says $160 min the next traget.

It's pulled back and is testing the top of the pennant. If that holds, should be cleared for takeoff.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby Cynus » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 12:18:51

Over at Calculated Risk it is assumed that what is going on is that the Investment Banks dumped all their bad mortgage securities on the Fed in exchange for T-Bills, and then leveraged it all up to bet on oil. Soon the big boys will decide they've played the game long enough and the price of oil will collapse. Probably right after enough public pressure builds on congress to allow oil drilling in off limit places.
One of these now am I too, a fugitive from the gods and a wanderer, at the mercy of raging Strife.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 12:30:56

Looks like the whole "doom pack" is travelling together today.

Oil (USO)
Natural Gas (UNG)
Gold (GLD)
Silver (SLV)
:)
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 12:45:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'L')ooks like the whole "doom pack" is travelling together today.

Oil (USO)
Natural Gas (UNG)
Gold (GLD)
Silver (SLV)


Coal's (KOL) is up too.
The dollar is down a bit, but I don't think it's enough to explain all that.
"We were standing on the edges
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Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 13:13:48

Cannot find an updated oil price, nymex is down, cnn is a couple of hours behind, etc... I have noticed a stoppage in the past, does anybody know what's happening this time?

EDIT: The quotes are coming thru now.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 13:43:44

The upper line of the pennant broke. It's currently testing the lower line of the pennant (~$133.40). If that breaks, we may be in for a significant drop.
"We were standing on the edges
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Sifting through the ashes every day
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Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 14:19:04

Crude Oil Declines From Record Amid Signs Saudi Arabia to Increase Output

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, retreating from a record, on signs that Saudi Arabia will increase production to stabilize prices.

Saudi Arabia will produce 9.7 million barrels of oil a day next month, an increase of 200,000 barrels above June's level, King Abdullah told United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, according to a UN spokesman. Prices earlier climbed to a record $139.89 after a fire cut North Sea output and the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities.

Crude oil for July delivery fell 80 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $134.06 a barrel at 1:34 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures earlier reached a record $139.89 a barrel.


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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby hironegro » Mon 16 Jun 2008, 23:16:41

sorry bro not everyone is boomer doomer.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby chuck6877 » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 00:03:35

$140.42 as the NEW HIGH!?

Look at the chart below for WTIC which says that is the new high!?

[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p21814216162[/web]
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby Novus » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 00:10:06

Someone must have been pretty desperate to bid a price that high. Oil was trading for most of the day in the mid 130s so there really was no need for such a premium.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 00:16:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', '[')b]$140.42 as the NEW HIGH!?


I'm not sure how WTIC is calculated. The high for the NYMEX July futures contract was what's reflected in the thread title - $139.89.
"We were standing on the edges
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Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby lowem » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 00:16:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chuck6877', '[')b]$140.42 as the NEW HIGH!?


That's due to the Aug 2008 contract hitting $140.42. The front-month contract is still Jul 2008 and that hit the $139.89 price that's currently being reported in news media everywhere.

I'd suppose to make things consistent around here, our "official benchmark" should remain as the price of the front-month NYMEX futures contract all the way up till expiry and roll-over to the next month.

Stockcharts seems to take the price quotes from the contract with the highest volume of transactions which is why we're seeing this. We are nearing the expiry date for the Jul 2008 contract so traders are switching over to the next month's one. You can see the $140.42 high on the NYMEX PSO (previous session overview) page.
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 01:53:10

So, are we making $150 by July?

Am thinking about starting to sell out of the drillers Noble Energy, Ensco, and H&P within a month.

Geoff
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby chuck6877 » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 02:21:50

To all of you,
Thanks for the explanation :)

I'm sure we'll be through $140 soon enough........(in the front month!)
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby mcgowanjm » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 10:27:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', 'T')he upper line of the pennant broke. It's currently testing the lower line of the pennant (~$133.40). If that breaks, we may be in for a significant drop.


Hello SPG, 8D

You're right that either way oil breaks this flag, there will
be a significant movement.

The problem for the bears is the weekly inventory reports.

Every Wed (or Thurs on Holiday) for the past 52 weeks, at least one
of the major fuels has had significant reductions.

And we have no more grain for 400 000 bbls per day of ethanol
to fill in the gaps.

Has there been any fog in the Houston Ship Channel this week?

yours,
James
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby chuck6877 » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 11:29:19

The Oil Stock Index ($OIX) looks like it's starting to break out to the upside today after it's been consolidating.

This would be BULLISH for $WTIC.

The $OIX has been making its big moves before $WTIC.

I bet oil breaks the upper part of that flag decisively in the next couple days.....

but then again will it go past 1.421 X the 200 day moving average? Hmmmmmm.. That currently is right at $142.

Heck, I don't know :)

Chuck
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Re: Another Record ($139.89)

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 17 Jun 2008, 19:24:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mcgowanjm', 'T')he problem for the bears is the weekly inventory reports.


Yeah. I think maybe you're right. Everybody is waiting on the inventory report to be the tie breaker. Yesterday we had the huge false breakout top side to $139. This morning there was a false breakout on the bottom side down to $132. At the end of the day, we're right back inside the pennant. It's like people are lost and don't know which way to go with it. All the while the 20dma creeps closer and closer and the upper envelope line creeps higher and higher. Also, despite the two false breakouts, the volume is starting to drop off like a pennant should.
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
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Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
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