$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.
Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.
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PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
by some_guy282 » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 08:40:45
This is an important point and something I've noticed as well. We're still not carpooling. When suburbanites are finally compelled to *gasp* get into an SUV and commute with, say, 3 other people instead of riding alone they are sharing the cost. So if you have four people sharing that ride and they are all contributing to the cost of the trip equally, at current prices their share is only $1 a gallon. If many individuals are still able to afford $4 a gallon driving by themselves now (with lots of complaining) then how high would the price have to go before it becomes unaffordable even when shared among a group of people? Suddenly the $25 a gallon figure doesn't seem so silly...
Of course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine
History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
by vision-master » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 08:50:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse.
Like maybe a gas guzzler tax?
Lowering the National speed limit?
Tax incentives for high mileage vehicles?
I know, how about no government policies. Let the free market prevail............
- vision-master
Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
by TommyJefferson » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 09:23:25
You guys far underestimate people's ability to cope with scarcity.
Actual physical shortages caused by government intervention would produce much protest and anger, but no significant political violence.
Like BigTex said, as with the boiling frog, people will adapt. We are seeing it already. Parking SUV's, carpooling, 4-day workweeks, etc. There is a huge amount of slack in our transportation needs and transportation system that has yet to be taken up.
Actual physical shortages caused by government intervention would produce much protest and anger, but no significant political violence.
Like BigTex said, as with the boiling frog, people will adapt. We are seeing it already. Parking SUV's, carpooling, 4-day workweeks, etc. There is a huge amount of slack in our transportation needs and transportation system that has yet to be taken up.
Conform . Consume . Obey .
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
by Heineken » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 09:50:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'I')'m with VM and others--as long as fuel is available at any price, things are unlikely to get ugly.
It's when it's not available that people are going to start acting crazy.
They're doing $10 a gallon fuel in Britain and the world still turns (I think it does, anyway).
We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.
Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.
I think the frog in the boiling water analogy is appropriate here--people will adjust to higher prices without freaking out so long as it is reasonably gradual and fuel is available for SOME price.
The 1970s only got ugly because of price control induced shortages.
To date, I don't think anyone could have predicted how little social unrest would be caused by $4.00 a gallon gas and nearly $5.00 a gallon diesel.
It's when it's not available that people are going to start acting crazy.
They're doing $10 a gallon fuel in Britain and the world still turns (I think it does, anyway).
We haven't even started seriously down the whole carpooling thing yet. That's next, and that will provide a lot of relief to some people with long commutes.
Maybe $25 a gallon would start to create some friction.
I think the frog in the boiling water analogy is appropriate here--people will adjust to higher prices without freaking out so long as it is reasonably gradual and fuel is available for SOME price.
The 1970s only got ugly because of price control induced shortages.
To date, I don't think anyone could have predicted how little social unrest would be caused by $4.00 a gallon gas and nearly $5.00 a gallon diesel.
In terms of the matter under discussion, I don't think it's reasonable to compare any European country with North America. Distances in Europe are very much compressed compared with here, and communities are organized around public transport, the bicycle, and walking. In Europe most driving is optional, not necessary to life as it is here (as a result of the decisions and investments we've made as a society). I say that from the perspective of someone who has lived there AND here.
There are probably a few counties in Texas that compare favorably in size to England. And everything in them is all spread out.
Some of you seem out-of-touch with the American masses. There is tremendous friction right now, at $4/gallon, for many poorer people, as MD noted. This friction has the potential to spread rapidly up the economic chain. A rising unemployment rate, driven by higher gas prices, could do that viciously. Even in the lower-middle and middle-middle classes, many families are, right now, just a few paychecks away from starvation. And has been noted, many people are "getting by" by getting deeper into debt. Borrowed money is borrowed time, my friends.
America is organized about 95% around the private automobile. Drive around with eyes wide open and you will see that for yourself. When the millions of Sheetz QuickMarts and Meineke Mufflers and Days Inns and Pizza Theaters go down, so will this country. There is no defense. As Kunstler has observed, we've made our choices and our investments and we will have to live and die with them.
Getting to work by carpooling is all well and fine, but what if people have no job to go to?
Remember, too, that $25 gasoline would not happen in isolation from other price impacts. It is a huge error to overlook this. If gasoline costs $25/gal, milk will cost $30/gal, etc.
And---how are we going to maintain those roads, with tumbling tax revenues and $200 oil? How will we fix the cracks and beat back the overgrowing branches? (This question has been examined in other threads.)
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---I & my bro.
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Re: PRICE at which gas will finally cause panic and chaos
by Muckingfess » Sun 15 Jun 2008, 10:00:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course that's an overly simplistic analysis, because it ignores other factors like the very real possibility of shortages, what happens to people who can't share the cost of gas by carpooling (like truckers), and, of course, what kinds of stupid government policies we will see during all of this which are almost certain to make the problem worse.
Like maybe a gas guzzler tax?
Lowering the National speed limit?
Tax incentives for high mileage vehicles?
I know, how about no government policies. Let the free market prevail............
2 Steps to cut consumption by significant percentage:
Any vehicle on the road must be paid for.
Only citizens are allowed to drive.
A man should never wear a hat that has more character than he does.
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