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THE US Housing Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Government takes over US mortgage industry

Unread postby Cynus » Fri 28 Mar 2008, 10:50:50

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. government-chartered mortgage companies, may raise as much as $20 billion in capital as part of an agreement that allows them to buy more debt securities, their regulator said. ...
"There's no specific number,'' [James Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight] said. ``There was a range of numbers. The best way is to say it's significant.'' The amount raised will be ``much more'' than the $5.9 billion of capital released by reducing the cushion, Lockhart said. ...
"The two enterprises have effectively become the mortgage market at this point,'' Lockhart said. ``Effectively they have become the lender of first, last and every resort.'' Bloomberg
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Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Denny » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 17:14:27

Seeing so many business news items lately in magazines and the net about this issue. You'd think th roof was caving in. But, its not all bad.
First off, if you own a house, sure you are expecting it to go up in value, but only over time. What harm are a few dips along the way? Everybody knows that real estate has its dips as well as its peaks. I bought a new house in 1987, and saw it drop in value about 17% between 1989 and 1995. While it made me wish at times I had waited, or sold out in 1989, my prime reason to buy a house was to live in it, not flip it. So, I got what I bargained for, a place to live at a defined cost.
And, a good thing about prices dropping is that some younger workers can afford them.
So, a price drop really does not hurt you, except your pride, if you already have a home and it can help you if you do not.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby seahorse2 » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 17:26:12

Unless the home is used as collateral for a line of credit or a business loan, which is a common practice. Many small business owners will use homes as collateral on loans for their businesses, so, a drop in home values hurts them a lot, may mean their business goes down.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby jlw61 » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 17:44:24

Plus home loan laws fall under state law, and since I live in Virginia, I have nothing to worry about as long as I pay my mortage. However, I'm told in some states if the house value goes below the loan value then the bank can call the loan due. Further, as mentioned, if you're using your house as collateral on another loan and it's value falls below the loan value, again, you're sunk.

Finally, the problem is not that home prices are falling, the problem is that the interest rates have soared on adjustable rate mortages and people can not meet their obligations. The reason this happened is that the market cooled and it was no longer a seller's market. Thus, we had a two prong problem. First, foolish people purchasing at historically low interest rates using an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) and believing the rates would not go up. Second, people buying and selling homes at a haphazard rate which in effect caused a situation not unlike musical chairs. The market cooled (the music stopped) and a lot of people got stuck with a long term investment that they did not want nor could they afford.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Cashmere » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 17:44:26

Denny, do some research.
Most people who bought homes in the last 3 years with little or no money down are upside down on their mortgage.
They can't move for a job relocation.
They can't sell for any reason, really.
They are making payments on a loan they can't afford.
Lots of pain.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Denny » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 17:53:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'D')enny, do some research.
Most people who bought homes in the last 3 years with little or no money down are upside down on their mortgage.
They can't move for a job relocation.
They can't sell for any reason, really.
They are making payments on a loan they can't afford.
Lots of pain.

Well, if houses generally are going down in price, and you need to move, then it would seem you could sell your house at less than you paid but buy a similar house with the proceeds elsewhere as long as you are not moving to a high home price area. If you were transferred originally by your employer, they generally will absorb the loss on the home value with some haggling, if they really want you to move elsewhere that badly. They cover this under employee relocation plans.

As for not being able to afford the loan, then it would seem the buyers were taking some outlandish risks in the first place, as you should not exceed 30% of your income in mortage payments.
Frankly, except for my sense of pride, it does no good for my house price to increase, it puts no money in my pocket.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 18:04:39

The media always pushes hard for welfare expansion & now there's $310 billion of mortgage relief on the table. They're going to milk the mortgage crisis for all it's worth.
People first, then things, then dollars.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 18:09:15

Why the trauma?
First, because younger folks were convinced RE appreciates in a straight line forever and it never has - ever.
Second, deregulation and under enforcement allowed people who should have never been given a loan to get one with historically hinkey terms and qualifications and the result is we now have the highest homeownership ever - not to mention a very high percentage of mortgages approaching default.

Third, the housing market is way overbuilt now due to the easy credit policy noted above - which I'm thinking was an outgrowth of the "Get Over The DotComs" in the first instance and then "We are at war but don't worry; Just Shop!" mentality.
I stand to be corrected by Seahorse or other qualified poster. :)
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby FoolYap » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 19:17:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'W')ell, if houses generally are going down in price, and you need to move, then it would seem you could sell your house at less than you paid but buy a similar house with the proceeds

If you're upside-down now on the mortgage, what proceeds?
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby wxman » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 20:08:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoolYap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'W')ell, if houses generally are going down in price, and you need to move, then it would seem you could sell your house at less than you paid but buy a similar house with the proceeds

If you're upside-down now on the mortgage, what proceeds?

You beat me to it. What a strange comment.
What we are seeing a lot of in the DC area is people trying to make "short sales", when you actually owe more on your mortgage than the house is worth. People who bought in 2005 for $550K, and now are trying to sell for $375K and have the bank "forgive" the rest of their loan. But by some realtor's accounts, only about 5% of the time are these offers accepted. So the house goes into foreclosure.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Denny » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 21:34:23

I am sorry, I guess this term "upside down" is alien to me.
My point is if you sell your house bought at $400K for $300K and buy another at $300K elsewhere you are in the same predicament, not worse, except for transaction fees.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 21:39:59

Don't forget, some loan forgiveness is income liable to taxation.

8O

You lose your house and still get hit with a massive tax bill.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby MarkJ » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 21:58:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'S')o, a price drop really does not hurt you, except your pride, if you already have a home and it can help you if you do not.

It actually helps the majority of us in my area that don't plan on selling in the short term since we pay lower property taxes after fighting our assessments.
Some of my properties are worth double or triple what they were worth ten tears ago, which is a negative thing from a property tax perspective.

Pride? I'm proud not to have a mortgage. I believe only 35 or 40 percent of local homeowners actually own their homes.
As you mentioned, the lower values in some areas has allowed the younger first time homebuyers in some areas to get into a home at a reasonable cost. Same applies to people trading up, buying or building new.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby seahorse » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 22:13:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y point is if you sell your house bought at $400K for $300K and buy another at $300K elsewhere you are in the same predicament, not worse, except for transaction fees.

Denny, there is a lot you aren't understanding. You cannot sell your house for $100k less than its worth, bc the bank that loaned you $400k to buy it will not release its mortgage unless its paid in full. So, where are you going to get the $100k to pay off the bank. You owe $400k that has to be paid.

Further, this housing crisis has moved beyond a homeowner's problem, its now a bank problem. Many homeowners are either walking away from the houses bc they can't pay or filing bankruptcy. In either case, the bank takes the house back and now has a bad loan on its book. This bad loan now means the bank must sell the house and take a hit. When the bank takes a hit, it means less money available to make new additional loans. The problem begins feeding on itself after awhile making itself worse. This is how the last great depression started. Whether we end in the same place, I don't know. But, our current situation is has similarities to the Great Depression.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 22:15:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I') am sorry, I guess this term "upside down" is alien to me.
My point is if you sell your house bought at $400K for $300K and buy another at $300K elsewhere you are in the same predicament, not worse, except for transaction fees.

Upside down means you owe more on the house than it's worth.
You buy a house for $400,000. You spend several years making payments and accumulating equity. You've managed to pay down $50,000. Then your house suddenly looses value. You sell it, but only get $300,000. You now have no house, no equity, and you still owe the bank $50,000. Assuming the bank even approved the sale in the first place, no way are you going to find a new bank to loan you money on a new mortgage while you still owe $50,000 on a house you don't even own anymore.

People have been buying houses, basically, as a way to do leveraged speculation in the real estate market. Now they're finding out that leverage works both ways. If you buy a $400,000 house and it goes up in value, you win big. It goes down in value, you loose everything, plus some.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 22:21:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', ' ')Many homeowners are either walking away from the houses bc they can't pay or filing bankruptcy. In either case, the bank takes the house back and now has a bad loan on its book.

The other option in a bankruptcy is that the bank may decide to renegotiate a loan with the original borrower, but the bankrupt borrower is only required to negotiate for the market price of the house. The amount by which the loan was upside down becomes unsecured debt which is discharged in the bankruptcy, and the bank has to write it off.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby FoolYap » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 12:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I') am sorry, I guess this term "upside down" is alien to me.
My point is if you sell your house bought at $400K for $300K and buy another at $300K elsewhere you are in the same predicament, not worse, except for transaction fees.

If you actually paid $400K cash for that first house, and had no mortgage, then yes, you'd still have $300K to use to buy the second house.

Most people in the US have mortgages when they buy a house, and many (perhaps even most) who bought within the past decade brought less than a 20% down-payment to the table when they bought. At the height of the mortgage madness, many put 0% down. Any decline in their home's value after they purchased, means they are now "upside down" on the mortgage: They'll have to pay the bank to sell, to pay off the mortgage. --Steve
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 12:42:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'W')ell, if houses generally are going down in price, and you need to move, then it would seem you could sell your house at less than you paid but buy a similar house with the proceeds elsewhere as long as you are not moving to a high home price area.

What proceeds? After paying off the mortgage with the proceeds from the sale, you still owe money on it.
edit: Sorry should have read the entire thread. you guys covered it.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby big_rc » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 13:09:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'S')eeing so many business news items lately in magazines and the net about this issue. You'd think th roof was caving in. But, its not all bad.

You are missing the big global picture. The vast majority of the homes that were sold in the past few years had their mortgages sliced and diced into securities that were then magically sold all over the world to many different types of investors. This junk is sitting like a time bomb on the balance sheets of God knows how many different companies and banks. The kicker is that this junk was sold on the underlying assumption that housing prices will never go down. Now that housing prices are crashing, this junk is sitting like a cancer eating away at the solvency of our entire global financial system. It is very, very bad.
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Re: Why the trauma about falling house prices?

Unread postby Denny » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 16:17:50

Well, if everybody just practices some patience, over the years it will blow over. Both the owners and banks need to relax and not be so quick to hit the panic button.
So, maybe it wil take 5 years or maybe 25, but no need to lose heart. If the bank overextended the loan, that mistake is in the past, no need to make a fuss now.
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