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Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby hope_full » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 10:16:25

What would you say the odds are that this fellow is right? Because I'd be happier thinking he *is* right. I'm in the very unfun stage of "new information overload" and "massive tsunami-type paradigm shift" and these days (and nights) peaceful sleep eludes me. Yeesh.

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/savings ... id=7083127

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y now you've heard the dire predictions. Oil trading at US$200 per barrel. Gasoline at US$7 per gallon. Galloping food inflation. And as long as we're talking "galloping", isn't that the four horsemen coming over the horizon? You'd think so, to see the way the press is covering recent economic predictions.

I've recently received e-mails from people who are worried about these scary predictions, and are wondering what they should do about them. Should they buy guns and canned food? Are home bomb shelters a good idea again? Okay, they didn't actually ask those questions. I made that up. But they were thinking those questions, I could just tell. I could feel the fear seeping right out of their e-mail.

If you share some of that sense of dread, be at peace. Life as you know it will continue. It's just that you won't be able to eat or drive. Kidding! I'm kidding. Really. Here's what you need to know about the recent economic predictions that are being cast in a catastrophic light by some of the news media:
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby JJ » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 10:25:31

it doesnt seem that you can compare Europe to the United States, as the article suggests "we will just adjust" accordingly. Are all those people on the outskirts of Houston, Chicago, Las Vegas, LA, etc. gonna just walk to work or ride a bike?
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby patience » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 10:36:04

I think he is way off base. Those who hang onto their gas guzzlers will see their value drop faster than California real estate. JJ is right. Those commuters in the outskirts areas are going to hurt bad.

It's a shame we can't winnow out this sort of misguided talk. We need real guidance for the masses, not pollyanna nonsense.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Midessa » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 10:53:16

I think he is right. Higher fuel prices will force some life style changes but doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again. We will adapt and overcome, don't panic.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby kpeavey » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 11:01:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'b')ut doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again

Do you offer evidence to support this view or are you relying on Hope?
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 12:07:43

I wonder why any SUV these days has trade-in value? Shouldn't they all be at $0 right now?
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby aflurry » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 12:35:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'b')ut doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again

Do you offer evidence to support this view or are you relying on Hope?


christ, the evidence is that the world is still here. as long as the undead continue to refrain from feasting on the living, the burden of evidence is carried by the apocalypticists. what evidence do you have that the complicated and unpredictable interactions of politics and economy will yield your particular doomsday? and remember to stick a date on that sucka, otherwise you're just dancing around saying always: "tomorrow tomorrow tomorrow.'

the weird thing is I identify as pretty damn doomerish... but it can never be enough for this board unless someone starts citing recipes from the cannibal cookbook.

this article is full of sound counterpoint to hysteria.

"A forecast of rain shouldn't prompt you to worry. It should prompt you to wear a raincoat and pack an umbrella."

what the hell is wrong with that?
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Midessa » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 12:57:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'b')ut doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again

Do you offer evidence to support this view or are you relying on Hope?


I was wondering how to answer your question without making too many enemies here, then aflurry came in and pretty much answered it for me.

But just to clarify:

My claim that life will continue with with some adjustment to high oil prices but sill be still be pretty much what we know now, is unremarkable and requires unremarkable evidence. Oil prices have reached $139.00 and so far no collapse. And even when markets do collapse, it is not the end of world. After the high tech busts we have still have computers and high tech products. After the housing bubble burst, everyone is not homeless. Some people may be homeless due to the housing crash but the vast majority have just moved and are renters now instead of homeowners. I think it will be the same with oil. People have already started using less of it and that trend can continue for a while.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Revi » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 13:29:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', 'I') wonder why any SUV these days has trade-in value? Shouldn't they all be at $0 right now?


Sell them as scrap to the chinese, Get a couple of hundred dollars for them. The crafty buggers will make 2 or 3 small cars out of them !!

Make sure to empty the tank first !!!!!!!

Gasmon


I know some people who made $500 a piece for a couple of old F-150's. You do have to take the gas tank off, and do a few other things.

So you don't have to worry about your SUV being worthless. It's worth at least $500 if you can get it to the scrapyard.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 13:38:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'b')ut doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again

Do you offer evidence to support this view or are you relying on Hope?


I was wondering how to answer your question without making too many enemies here, then aflurry came in and pretty much answered it for me.

But just to clarify:

My claim that life will continue with with some adjustment to high oil prices but sill be still be pretty much what we know now, is unremarkable and requires unremarkable evidence. Oil prices have reached $139.00 and so far no collapse. And even when markets do collapse, it is not the end of world. After the high tech busts we have still have computers and high tech products. After the housing bubble burst, everyone is not homeless. Some people may be homeless due to the housing crash but the vast majority have just moved and are renters now instead of homeowners. I think it will be the same with oil. People have already started using less of it and that trend can continue for a while.


Diff is there is no geological limit on hi-tech companies or housing. However there is a certain amount of oil in the ground.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Midessa » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 14:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'b')ut doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again

Do you offer evidence to support this view or are you relying on Hope?


I was wondering how to answer your question without making too many enemies here, then aflurry came in and pretty much answered it for me.

But just to clarify:

My claim that life will continue with with some adjustment to high oil prices but sill be still be pretty much what we know now, is unremarkable and requires unremarkable evidence. Oil prices have reached $139.00 and so far no collapse. And even when markets do collapse, it is not the end of world. After the high tech busts we have still have computers and high tech products. After the housing bubble burst, everyone is not homeless. Some people may be homeless due to the housing crash but the vast majority have just moved and are renters now instead of homeowners. I think it will be the same with oil. People have already started using less of it and that trend can continue for a while.


Diff is there is no geological limit on hi-tech companies or housing. However there is a certain amount of oil in the ground.


I understand what you are saying, but there actually is a geological limit to high tech and housing as well. Computers and communication networks are essential to the tech industry and made from materials that are geologically limited. Houses also. The busts in these industries came from a decrease in demand, not a supply shortfall.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby Twilight » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 14:23:05

Too vague an article to be useful.

I will straight get to the point. If you are trapped in a long commute and a house that loses you money every payday, have debt or few savings and only a couple of days' food to hand, you are screwed. Forget the rest of the world for a moment, because you have your own personal apocalypse to deal with and it is your personal world that is ending.

The hype could be wrong, but you are still screwed.

With that out of the way, do something about it. An opinion piece on MSN of all places should not be a source of reassurance. It says nothing about you. I bet there will be a bunch of people reading that piece failing to pay off a five-digit credit card balance or with a mortgage rate about to reset, and some of them will be moved to think, gee maybe things aren't so bad after all. Do not let that be you.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby AgentR » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 14:43:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'i')t doesnt seem that you can compare Europe to the United States, as the article suggests "we will just adjust" accordingly. Are all those people on the outskirts of Houston, Chicago, Las Vegas, LA, etc. gonna just walk to work or ride a bike?


I don't know about Chicago, LA, or Vegas... Houston though may just be weird in that the concentration of commercial activity just isn't as dense; you have businesses situated all over the place.. The idea that its solid residential suburb on the outskirts and commercial intown just doesn't fit. There are large chunks of residential areas close in; and there are huge industrial and commercial activities that are definately on the outskirts.

People intown may have to move to the outskirts to afford driving to their jobs, and people on the outskirts may have to move into to afford driving to their jobs.

No zoning. What can you say.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby dbspl » Thu 12 Jun 2008, 21:43:06

christ, the evidence is that the world is still here. as long as the undead continue to refrain from feasting on the living, the burden of evidence is carried by the apocalypticists.

what evidence do you have that the complicated and unpredictable interactions of politics and economy will yield your particular doomsday?


aflurry, you're my hero...

I realize that I'm a newbie, but I just don't see how you can make a more valid point than that! This is pure poetry.


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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby grampybone » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 05:27:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'I') think he is right. Higher fuel prices will force some life style changes but doomsday will most likely be postponed yet again. We will adapt and overcome, don't panic.




This is un-charted waters. Who knows for sure that we can overcome this?

The effect of oil at $135+ has yet to be felt fully. Give it some time to work it's way into the economy.

It's not just the cost of the fuel that you put into your fuel tank. High oil prices affect everything. We as individuals can choose to drive less, walk or ride our bike. But we still will be paying higher prices for our food because of the increase of diesel to truck the stuff to the store. Also packaging costs are increasing. It's like a domino effect. People will be spending less money on everything just to drive or eat. How can this not effect the economy?

Doomsday here we come.
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Re: Stop the earth, I want to get off...

Unread postby muon » Fri 13 Jun 2008, 13:02:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hope_full', 'W')hat would you say the odds are that this fellow is right? Because I'd be happier thinking he *is* right. I'm in the very unfun stage of "new information overload" and "massive tsunami-type paradigm shift" and these days (and nights) peaceful sleep eludes me. Yeesh.

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/savings ... id=7083127



I think this part is spot on:

Life as you know it will continue. It's just that you won't be able to eat or drive.

:lol:

But seriously, I think that in one way the article is right, panic isn't the best choice. On the other hand, too much relaxation will breed apathy at a time when we need action, it just has to be sensible and with an eye to the future instead of only meeting today's needs.

I think a lot of the media has been talking down against peak oilers for years and some still want to do that because they want to reassure people the world isn't going to end. But one day last week I saw a news video with the guest experts saying how we should imminently expect oil to go down to $100. The next day we had the spike up to $139. Those guests haven't been back. Last night I went to latoc and clicked some of the current news links, one was to a UK newspaper article, it was stuck in the environment section but was one of the top emailed stories of the day and it was pretty doomerish. The press don't seem to have a consensus among them yet, some are holding out reassuring the masses, others are like oh shit the peak oilers were right after all, lets push this baby and sell papers cos doom sells, it's the end of the world as we know it is surely almost as good as aliens landing.

One opinion article I read recently said that there was a shortage of silver years ago so people just took their unwanted silver in to be melted down and the problem was sorted. We can't do that with oil. I think some of the reassurance and platitudes are the wrong thing because I don't think this is a good time for complacency. Panic is not good either though, so take the scare stories and scare yourself silly, and then think what can I do to try to make sure the worst case scenario doesn't play out.
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