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CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust
Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust
by copious.abundance » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:11:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') Let's say you're actually right, and the price of oil goes up to $150, then $200, then $300, then . . . If the price of oil goes that high, you will see a worldwide economic collapse and demand destruction far beyond anyone's wildest imagination.
Until everything comes to a screeeeching halt, demand destructioin will only slow the rate of growth of energy demand. China, Asia, and Latin America have a full head of steam.
I disagree. If the price went high enough, even people in China, Asia and Latin America will start destroying their demand. In fact, since those folks tend to be poorer, you might even see their consumption reduced *even more* than in the rich nations. After all, poor people are the ones who'll be least able to afford a big oil price increase. And all those subsidies many of those governments currently provide will become too expensive to maintain. In fact this is already starting to happen in some of these countries.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')ou seem to forget that there is no current replacement for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. I will pay whatever the price of gasoline is to stay in business. I cannot cut one bit of use as my use is dictated by necessity to do business.
Energy is like water and air, you got to have it. Demand destruction will only cut the fluff in the developed world; and in the developing world, it will cause famine, riots, and disease.
Demand destruction is not the apt wording; it is "energy accessibility". The "demand" for energy will always be there. It will be more of an issue of affordability.
Not everyone is in the same situation as you, of course. Many people *can* cut their oil consumption and keep their business going. In fact, it doesn't even necessarily have to be "business" that reduces oil consumption in the face of higher prices (though, to be sure many will). As long as "residential" consumers (for lack of a better word) reduce their consumption sufficiently (which most can), they can be responsible for most of the demand destruction. In other words, if all those SUV owners trade their cars for a Toyota Yaris, that could be sufficient enough to let construction companies continue to drive their pickup trucks.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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copious.abundance - Fission
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust
by MonteQuest » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:12:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'B')ut I find that unlikely...
Ah, you know the rate of oil decline, do you?
No one else does.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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MonteQuest - Expert
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) every day in his SUV/passenger car/whatever , you won't see a decline in the amount of gas bought at a given price, rather, I for example, will continue to buy the amount required to get to work and back everyday, consuming the same amount every week, until I can not afford to buy that amount. At that point, you will find that my consumption of petrol abruptly stops, and i'll be taking public transport (if only we actually had the bus service come through our area more than twice a day), or purchasing a motorbike for it's greater fuel efficiency (I am actually doing this already, considering dumping the car, but finding it hard to get around the problem that occurs when I have to transport large articles).
