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CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby cube » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 21:44:53

to: OilFinder2
strawman argument

you're so predictable. :roll:
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 21:59:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 't')o: OilFinder2
strawman argument

you're so predictable. :roll:

In other words, you cannot answer my question because you know such a case does not exist, and will never exist. And that being the case, the price of oil eventually *will* go down. Being unable to answer my question, you have to accuse me once again of offering a strawman argument, even though the question I posed to you was exactly on topic and had absolutely everything to do with what I was explaining.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby cube » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 23:24:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '.')..
In other words, you cannot answer my question because you know such a case does not exist, and will never exist.
So you're admitting using your own words that you just asked me a rigged question!

thank you OilFinder2 for admitting you were using a logical fallacy. :roll:
//
*looks into crystal ball*
When crude oil goes up to $600 then "The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust" and crude will crash down to $300.
and yes we will all still be driving gasoline powered cars because it's still cheaper than electric cars.
There are you happy now? :)
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 06 Jun 2008, 23:51:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '.')..
In other words, you cannot answer my question because you know such a case does not exist, and will never exist.
So you're admitting using your own words that you just asked me a rigged question!

Good. Since you admit it was a rigged question, this means you admit you cannot answer it affirmatively. Since you admit you cannot answer it affirmatively, this means you agree with me that the price of oil must fall at some point in time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '*')looks into crystal ball*
When crude oil goes up to $600 then "The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust" and crude will crash down to $300.
and yes we will all still be driving gasoline powered cars because it's still cheaper than electric cars.
There are you happy now? :)

If you believe there will not be sufficient demand destruction before the price of oil gets to $600 to make the price crash, I think you're going to be in for a surprise.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby cube » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:18:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '.')..this means you agree with me that the price of oil must fall at some point in time..
correct
however I truly believe this bull market isn't even halfway over yet.

If we go back to the original article, some of the author's statements were just absolutely ridiculous like the $70 shale comment. And the author is trying to suggest the crash will happen very soon. Again I totally disagree.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby thuja » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:21:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '.')..
In other words, you cannot answer my question because you know such a case does not exist, and will never exist.
So you're admitting using your own words that you just asked me a rigged question!

Good. Since you admit it was a rigged question, this means you admit you cannot answer it affirmatively. Since you admit you cannot answer it affirmatively, this means you agree with me that the price of oil must fall at some point in time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '*')looks into crystal ball*
When crude oil goes up to $600 then "The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust" and crude will crash down to $300.
and yes we will all still be driving gasoline powered cars because it's still cheaper than electric cars.
There are you happy now? :)

If you believe there will not be sufficient demand destruction before the price of oil gets to $600 to make the price crash, I think you're going to be in for a surprise.


Ummm yeah you're right- the oil price will definitely crash in the future- but the smarter question would be...what will demand destruction look like when it hits that price?
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:31:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'U')mmm yeah you're right- the oil price will definitely crash in the future- but the smarter question would be...what will demand destruction look like when it hits that price?

What does it matter what it looks like, as long as it gets destroyed if it hit that price?

It might be really really ugly with a Great Depression II, worse than the first one, maybe with some dieoff thrown in for good measure. Something like that would crash the price of oil bigtime.

Or maybe it will be that the super-duper high price of oil encourages people to develop better electric cars, and also they finally perfect an inexpensive way to harness nuclear fusion in the meantime. So we'll have electricty up the kazoo to power our electric cars. That, too, would definitely crash the price of oil bigtime.

Or any scenario in-between.

Or, if the price of oil crashes at a much lower price, demand destruction might not look so bad after all. Maybe just some adjustments here and there could do the trick.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby thuja » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:39:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'U')mmm yeah you're right- the oil price will definitely crash in the future- but the smarter question would be...what will demand destruction look like when it hits that price?

What does it matter what it looks like, as long as it gets destroyed if it hit that price?

It might be really really ugly with a Great Depression II, worse than the first one, maybe with some dieoff thrown in for good measure. Something like that would crash the price of oil bigtime.

Or maybe it will be that the super-duper high price of oil encourages people to develop better electric cars, and also they finally perfect an inexpensive way to harness nuclear fusion in the meantime. So we'll have electricty up the kazoo to power our electric cars. That, too, would definitely crash the price of oil bigtime.

Or any scenario in-between.

Or, if the price of oil crashes at a much lower price, demand destruction might not look so bad after all. Maybe just some adjustments here and there could do the trick.


Keep on posting brother...we need you!
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:40:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'K')eep on posting brother...we need you!

Is that the only thing you have to say?
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby thuja » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:44:03

I entirely agree with you that the price of oil will eventually crash. And you are correct that commodities in general will someday crash. I support your theory.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby idiom » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:46:00

If all the humans are dead then the price will crash. Oil Finder is correct.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby thuja » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:47:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'I')f all the humans are dead then the price will crash. Oil Finder is correct.


Or when we all are in flying cars powered by fusion reactors...think about it. Its pretty possible...
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby arretium » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:50:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'S')hawn Tully (Fortune magazine):

"An earlier bubble is also instructive. In the early 1980s silver prices jumped from $10 to $50 on the theory that the world was facing a permanent shortage of silver. Suddenly ads appeared asking homeowners to bring their tea sets and jewelry to Holiday Inns for a big price. Silver supplies poured from seemingly nowhere, out of America's cupboards, of all places.

And so it will be with oil. We don't know where the new abundance will come from, from shale, or tar sands or coal or an OPEC desperate to regain market share. We just know that it will appear. With prices like these, it always does. ..."

Although I am not a pessimist, and not entirely convinced Peak Oil is here just yet (I think current valuations are mostly due to weak US dollar, and monetary policy) I must say this item left me even more skeptical about his unbridled optimism. Does Tully think oil will suddenly come gushing forth from people's kitchen cupboards?

Also, I fail to see the analogy with the housing or tech markets. Unlike housing or technology, there is a finite supply of oil. There is not a finite supply of housing or new technology.

As for his final lines ("we just know it will appear") that strikes me as blind faith.


Oh but there is a finite supply of housing and technology, it's that we're so far on the upside of the slope for both of these products that it seems like there isn't. Remember, there's only so much land available. There's only so much natural resources on this planet available to be turned into an iPOD. When it comes to silicon (sand), we haven't even scratched the bottom of the curve going up.


What's different about land and technology is that at least you can recycle the use, whereas with oil, once it's gone, it's gone.

I actually disagree with my friends here that macroeconomics can't explain peak oil and its ramifications. It can. It's just that no one really knows how yet. The one that figures it out first is probably someone whose thinking is so fundamentally different yet fundamentally simple that they might even garner nobel attention.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:53:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') Let's say you're actually right, and the price of oil goes up to $150, then $200, then $300, then . . . If the price of oil goes that high, you will see a worldwide economic collapse and demand destruction far beyond anyone's wildest imagination.


Until everything comes to a screeeeching halt, demand destructioin will only slow the rate of growth of energy demand. China, Asia, and Latin America have a full head of steam.

You seem to forget that there is no current replacement for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. I will pay whatever the price of gasoline is to stay in business. I cannot cut one bit of use as my use is dictated by necessity to do business.

Energy is like water and air, you got to have it. Demand destruction will only cut the fluff in the developed world; and in the developing world, it will cause famine, riots, and disease.

Demand destruction is not the apt wording; it is "energy accessibility". The "demand" for energy will always be there. It will be more of an issue of affordability.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby arretium » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:53:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('burtonridr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('article', 'B')ut sooner or later the world won't keep paying those prices: Eventually, the price must fall back to the cost of that last barrel to clear the market.


LOL, sooner or later the world wont keep paying those prices? LOL more like larger countries will and the smaller one wont, but the price will continue to rise as supply continues to drop.


Or better yet they'll just take it by force. I guess that Bush guy was on to something...
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 01:58:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')Do you really think Americans would consume as much oil as they do now if gas was $8/gallon?


Most people I talk to say, in many cases, they wouldn't have any other choice. I wouldn't.

The only way any real demand destruction will occur is when you cannot buy gasoline due to shortages.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby thuja » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:01:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') Let's say you're actually right, and the price of oil goes up to $150, then $200, then $300, then . . . If the price of oil goes that high, you will see a worldwide economic collapse and demand destruction far beyond anyone's wildest imagination.


Until everything comes to a screeeeching halt, demand destructioin will only slow the rate of growth of energy demand. China, Asia, and Latin America have a full head of steam.

You seem to forget that there is no current replacement for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. I will pay whatever the price of gasoline is to stay in business. I cannot cut one bit of use as my use is dictated by necessity to do business.

Energy is like water and air, you got to have it. Demand destruction will only cut the fluff in the developed world; and in the developing world, it will cause famine, riots, and disease.

Demand destruction is not the apt wording; it is "energy accessibility". The "demand" for energy will always be there. It will be more of an issue of affordability.


But Monte- you have to agree there is a price where people just can't afford it- and then we'll have massive unparalelled demand destruction. That is when I find it highly likely that the fusion powered flying car will suddenly be cheaply available to all. Does that not seem logical to you?
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:04:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') And that being the case, the price of oil eventually *will* go down.


Not entirely so. If the rate of oil decline exceeds the rate of demand decline, he price will continue up...if we aren't in utter chaos, war, and overshoot die-off.
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby thuja » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:06:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ') And that being the case, the price of oil eventually *will* go down.


Not entirely so. If the rate of oil decline exceeds the rate of demand decline, he price will continue up...if we aren't in utter chaos, war, and overshoot die-off.


He presented that possibility- certainly massive die-off would be a type of demand destruction that would drop the price of oil dramatically right?

But I find that unlikely- banana powered cars seems much more likely...
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Re: CNN: Why The Oil Boom Will Eventually Bust

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:10:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', ' ')But Monte- you have to agree there is a price where people just can't afford it- and then we'll have massive unparalelled demand destruction.


You mean massive unparalleled death, don't you?

My point is that there isn't going to be a market correction...unless there no longer is any market.

Oil at any price is not going to destroy the demand for it. Only it's accessibility.

It's like saying that raising the price of water will reduce people's consumption of it.
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