PeakOil is You
Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
Re: Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
by PenultimateManStanding » Tue 20 May 2008, 17:38:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') jumped for a second. I thought someone had nuked Saudi Arabia.
And something like that is all it would take.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
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Re: Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
by PenultimateManStanding » Tue 20 May 2008, 18:02:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ith around 200 trading days left, oil prices must rise at least 45 cents per day from now on in order to hit $200/barrel by 2009.
Any pull back means that oil prices must rise by a little bit more each day in order to hit $200.
Between January 2002 and January 2008, oil prices in dollar terms rose by about 500%.
That's a 30% annual increase.
Even if we continue that trend this year (unlikely given a global slowdown), we would hit $140 a barrel by December.
The past 2 months have seen a big run up in prices but even at that pace, it would still be difficult to hit $200 a barrel.
I've played with the math and I just don't think it's a likely event.
Looking at this historically and mathematically is the way to go, but you left out one concept, the exponential. You say "even at this pace," i.e., the past two months without considering this $/bbl curve to be exponentially rising could give erroneous prognostications and cause you to lose your bet. I personally think what is happening is the price adjustment process where the inelasticity is very high. I saw a post at theoildrum yesterday where it was stated that it takes a 25% increase in price to produce a 1% decrease in demand. It going to have to get brutally high to get people to stop buying it. It's going to mean countries falling apart and famile, revolution, bloody violence when they do stop buying it; so naturally they will cling for dear life to the market. With so many desperate players in the market around the world it would not be surprising to see that $1000 oil come a lot sooner than many stunned onlookers would have dreamed possible.Any pull back means that oil prices must rise by a little bit more each day in order to hit $200.
Between January 2002 and January 2008, oil prices in dollar terms rose by about 500%.
That's a 30% annual increase.
Even if we continue that trend this year (unlikely given a global slowdown), we would hit $140 a barrel by December.
The past 2 months have seen a big run up in prices but even at that pace, it would still be difficult to hit $200 a barrel.
I've played with the math and I just don't think it's a likely event.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
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PenultimateManStanding - Expert
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Re: Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
by roccman » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 00:35:28
Half way through the year and more than half way to $250.
So when Tyler exactly is the pull back gonna happen.
Double down bro?
So when Tyler exactly is the pull back gonna happen.
Double down bro?
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
by Ayoob » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 02:27:38
I've got a bet going with him too. At the moment I don't remember what it was, but I think it was $200 by the end of 2008, and I'll go ahead and take delivery in cash.
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Re: Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
by btu2012 » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 09:48:34
Nicolai, why do you feel the need to control other people's posting style ?
Roccman has his, you have yours... It's a big world.
Roccman has his, you have yours... It's a big world.
only the paranoid survive
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Re: Hey Tyler!!! You owe me $50 !!!
by EnergyUnlimited » Sat 07 Jun 2008, 10:32:31
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'O')K, what are the odds of a sudden and massive drop in oil production?
You see an invasion/attack against Iran on the horizon, I don't.
That's the dividing line between gradual price increase and massive spike.
If Bush does decide to attack Iran, we might see $200 a barrel oil. Otherwise, it's hard to think of a scenario that would lead to those kinds of prices.
Revolution in Saudi Arabia comes to mind, so does an embargo by Venezuela.
But neither of those scenarios has a high probability, in my opinion.
You see an invasion/attack against Iran on the horizon, I don't.
That's the dividing line between gradual price increase and massive spike.
If Bush does decide to attack Iran, we might see $200 a barrel oil. Otherwise, it's hard to think of a scenario that would lead to those kinds of prices.
Revolution in Saudi Arabia comes to mind, so does an embargo by Venezuela.
But neither of those scenarios has a high probability, in my opinion.
Did you expect oil prices to go up by $60 within last 6 months?
Why should they not go up another $60 within next 6 months?
Reasons?
What was a reson(s) of increase up to day?
Speculators?
Supply uncertainty?
Supply shortages?
You dont need a war to add $60 to current prices.
You just need bussiness as usual.
With a war in Iran or revolution in SA etc you will quickly see $600 per barrel, unless total ruin of Western economy came first.
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