[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')ith around 200 trading days left, oil prices must rise at least 45 cents per day from now on in order to hit $200/barrel by 2009.

Any pull back means that oil prices must rise by a little bit more each day in order to hit $200.

Between January 2002 and January 2008, oil prices in dollar terms rose by about 500%.

That's a 30% annual increase.

Even if we continue that trend this year (unlikely given a global slowdown), we would hit $140 a barrel by December.

The past 2 months have seen a big run up in prices but even at that pace, it would still be difficult to hit $200 a barrel.

I've played with the math and I just don't think it's a likely event.

[Tyler_JC]

OK, what are the odds of a sudden and massive drop in oil production?

You see an invasion/attack against Iran on the horizon, I don't.

That's the dividing line between gradual price increase and massive spike.

If Bush does decide to attack Iran, we might see $200 a barrel oil. Otherwise, it's hard to think of a scenario that would lead to those kinds of prices.

Revolution in Saudi Arabia comes to mind, so does an embargo by Venezuela.

But neither of those scenarios has a high probability, in my opinion.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'O')K, what are the odds of a sudden and massive drop in oil production?

You see an invasion/attack against Iran on the horizon, I don't.

That's the dividing line between gradual price increase and massive spike.

If Bush does decide to attack Iran, we might see $200 a barrel oil. Otherwise, it's hard to think of a scenario that would lead to those kinds of prices.

Revolution in Saudi Arabia comes to mind, so does an embargo by Venezuela.

But neither of those scenarios has a high probability, in my opinion.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'W')e are dealing with Neo Cons...religious zealots...

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')K, what are the odds of a sudden and massive drop in oil production?

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zzzpeakoil', 'I') agree with Nicholai. I like this forum overall but some of you have
become fanatics about your "doom". When oil barely reaches to
100$ and some of you predict that it will go to 1000$ in just one
year, that is fanaticism and stupidity alike.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')K, what are the odds of a sudden and massive drop in oil production?

[Tyler_JC]

I just hope Roccman is ready for the HOF rant I'm going to post when I win.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') just hope Roccman is ready for the HOF rant I'm going to post when I win.

[Tyler_JC]

I shouldn't be encouraging this...

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') shouldn't be encouraging this...

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') just hope Roccman is ready for the HOF rant I'm going to post when I win.

[steam_cannon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'T')ruth is Tyler...I hope you win.

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', ' ')Wasn't too long ago oil was in the high 80s. Things in early '08 are moving fast and picking up speed. A lot of things all at the same time. You've got Helicopter Ben taking crash courses in hedge funds, banks teetering on the edge, famine on the horizon. Anything can happen this year.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'T')ruth is Tyler...I hope you win.

[roccman]

Getting nervous yet tyler?

[roccman]

I am - and it is not because of our wager.

[jato]

I think Tyler has been re-programmed by ReserveGrowthRulz. They have spent way too much time on Peak Speak together.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'I') think Tyler has been re-programmed by ReserveGrowthRulz. They have spent way too much time on Peak Speak together.