[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '
')Thoughts? Insights?

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince about 2000, the price of oil has been rising on a roughly exponential curve, about doubling every two years: ~$10/bbl in 2000, $20 in '02, $40 in '04, ~$80 in '06, and we are now well on our way toward $160 in '08.

[arretium]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', '
')That chart goes to 2006 when oil was half what it is now. That puts oil now at ~6.5% of today's GDP. It is a lie to state that we are in new territory as his chart shows.

[........]

Somebody to ignorant to realize that GDP changes over time ...

And..

Anybody who can't multiply two numbers together loses a lot of credibility if you ask me. Ten of trillions of dollars?
~30B bpy * $130 = $4.2 trillion.

[dohboi]

Thanks for the thoughts, all.

Fletch, aren't you assuming markets and currencies will continue to operate normally? Is this likely for very long in a post peak world well into the down slope, ie. the near future?

If oil gets extremely precious, isn't it likely the military will require that its use be restricted to war functions? If buying and selling of a rare quantity is prohibited, what happens to its price? It seems that what ever a black market price is, that doesn't really reflect the real price a buyer may pay, since he may pay jail time or even with his life. Can you really quantify that "price" adequately?

The price doesn't have to "go up forever," it just might not make sense after a while to talk about it's price in terms of dollars (for a variety of reasons, perhaps.)

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o you think that someone who is **NOT** writing about his area of expertise shouldn't have credibility?

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '.')..
I do agree that the "crashing economy" bit is unnecessarily sensational. He could have pointed out that the economy will only crash in certain segments. The energy economy and all widely related activities will boom along nicely, taking an ever greater share of global economic activity for long into the future.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'D')enny,
I think you're right, and that is a taste of things to come, with more of the double digit inflation that the US had in the late 1970's. I presume that Canada had a similiar experience.

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')letch, aren't you assuming markets and currencies will continue to operate normally?

[dohboi]

"I might have to exchange 100 goats to buy a gallon"

Nice image! My new nomination for quote of the week.

By normal, I mean something resembling a free market, whether in bucks or goats.

When gas starts being ever more heavily rationed, then finally prohibited, this will not be anything anyone would recognize as a free market, wouldn't you say? There will surely be a black market, but the risks involved in dealing in this market could easily eventually include death. How do you tally that "price."

I would love to hear about any, even one, mainstream economist that you respect that predicted anything like the oil prices we are seeing happening at this time.

[patience]

Threadbear,
Excellent point on inflation. We're just gonna get poorer. A lot poorer.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', '
')
Nope didn't say that. But when someone points out that they have been a professor at Princeton for 30 years they should try not to embarrass their Alma mater by making 4th grade math errors. They shouldn't try to plot 3 independent variables on a 2 dimensional graph. He lost all credibility on anything to do with mathematics there. Perhaps I was more critical then I could have been, but if someone misrepresents data when common sense should have caught the error I think less of them. Pardon my crassness.

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') had no difficulty interpreting the image or keeping it in context ...

[TheDude]

Deffeyes most likely acheived his figure using the PPP value for World total GDP - 65 trillion, 6% of which is 3.9 trillion. 85 million (bpd)*130*365=4,033,250,000,000.
Rough figures but none of these values are static except the days in a year and I don't have the math skills to pursue this further. Deffeyes is far sharper than you give him credit for. Have you read his books?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', 'A')re your sure?

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')D's sure is positive. You're a bit slack in the grammatical syntax department, if you want to pick nits.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', '
')Uhm..no.

It doesn't look like anyone was able to interpret the graph-correctly.

[yesplease]

People seem to love pointing out when the MSM screws up and misses a day when reporting on demand destruction, yet I don't see much love for point out the screw ups here... Perhaps the reports of the site turning into a death cult weren't exaggerated? It'll be the end of the world if we speak poorly of our our Malthusian cheerleaders!

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', 'A')s I stated earlier, there is not a problem w/ the figure he arrives at for today's GDP and his 6.5% of GDP goes to crude oil. It is inaccurate when it shows 1970's and 1980's data displayed as being 1% or less of GDP when in reality 7.5% of GDP was going to crude oil at that time (early 80's).

Link

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's US GDP, he's using World DP. Does it make a difference?

[yesplease]

In all fairness, oil costs as a percentage of world GDP in 1980 were only ~4-5%, but, at the same time, oil consumption was not as common in many parts of the world. Mistakes are mistakes... He's still missing a dot near 5% around 22bbpy and we ain't spending tens of trillions on oil (at least not w/o including externalities) until it goes to ~$350-400/bbl w/ consumption and the dollar staying where they are now.

Edit- Also depends on whether the PPP or Currency or Etc measure of GDP is used.

[Serial_Worrier]

Abandon all hope!