[seahorse2]

Since I live in Arkansas, I should probably start an internet flint selling business.

[Macmalc]

This clarification must be for the benefit of the Harvard undergraduate community.

[shakinginmyshoes]

Longtime lurker. First time poster. I took Dr. Deffeye's "Stone Age" comment seriously. And I don't consider myself an idiot.
Here's why. Iran wants enriched uranium, they *say* for peaceful purposes.

R-i-i-i-g-h-t.

Jim Sinclair (jsmineset.com) (aka Mr. Gold) says Iran is stalling for time and that by 4th quarter 2006 they'll have stealthily produced enough enriched uranium to produce a bomb. Anyone here remember the old phrase "bomb 'em back to the Stone Age"? Albert Einstein, when asked what weapons would be used to fight WWWIII said, I don't know. But WWWIV will be fought with sticks and stones.

I grew up under the specter of nuclear annihilation. Though the USSR didn't do us in, that's no guarantee Iran won't or China won't, or Russia won't, especially in view of the unprecedented stresses Peak Oil will create.

[backstop]

SIMS -Welcome to the site -
I well remember that fearsome genocidal phrase being applied to Vietnam (along with more bombs than all sides used in WWII) . No doubt you recall that America "didn't win" that one. The present farce looks equally unproductive to my eye, though I don't see why you seem to believe the Neocons' propaganda over that from Tehran.

It appears to me that US policy couldn't make a bigger fool of itself if it tried. Of course you're right that there aren't any guarantees, apart from questionable sanity and unquestionable destructive retaliatory power.

As to enjoying the stone age, I read recently how the art of flint knapping has been revived and quite a few people are adept at it after just a few years practice. Maybe it would be worth stepping back a bit and see what the supposed "thirst for oil" may be distracting you from seeing ?

[drew]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', ' ')As to enjoying the stone age, I read recently how the art of flint knapping has been revived and quite a few people are adept at it after just a few years practice . . .

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakinginmyshoes', 'J')im Sinclair (jsmineset.com) (aka Mr. Gold) says Iran is stalling for time and that by 4th quarter 2006 they'll have stealthily produced enough enriched uranium to produce a bomb.

[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakinginmyshoes', 'L')ongtime lurker. First time poster. I took Dr. Deffeye's "Stone Age" comment seriously. And I don't consider myself an idiot.
Here's why. Iran wants enriched uranium, they *say* for peaceful purposes. R-i-i-i-g-h-t.

[shakespear1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'sheer size of the current nuclear arsenal of the US')
Exactly. It is not fear that Iran will have the bomb. It is the fear that they will have something that will make someone think twice about trying to deomocracize them.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakinginmyshoes', 'J')im Sinclair (jsmineset.com) (aka Mr. Gold) says Iran is stalling for time and that by 4th quarter 2006 they'll have stealthily produced enough enriched uranium to produce a bomb.

[seahorse2]

Here's some recent info to see if Deffeyes was right about world oil peak back in December 05. The recent EIA charts show oil demand exceeding oil supply in the first quarter of 2006.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'O')kay, take a look at these two little just-updated beauties:
IEA World Oil Supply Chart and IEA World Oil Demand Chart

[highlander]

So what is the problem. Oil supply was highest on record 1st quarter 2006. With the additional 2mmbd production just recently found, we are good through the fourth quarter! Bush is right, we shouldn't worry. The only reason they didn't produce more than 84mmbd in the past was we didn't need it. These pills work really well

[bruin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat is the status of Kenneth S. Deffeyes predition of December 16, 2005 as the date of Peak Oil?

[rwwff]

You're a couple years too soon. If in 2007 we look back and say, "dang, that was a lot of oil, we really pumped THAT much?"; if on the other hand we're pumping 93 mpbd then 2005 was just a slight flat spot on the way up the hill.

[bruin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'Y')ou're a couple years too soon. If in 2007 we look back and say, "dang, that was a lot of oil, we really pumped THAT much?"; if on the other hand we're pumping 93 mpbd then 2005 was just a slight flat spot on the way up the hill.

[rwwff]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'T')he question is, has it held up so far or not.

[bruin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'T')he question is, has it held up so far or not.

[NEOPO]

I think you may be confusing the actual US peak with the world peak. Perhaps they did indeed underestimate technological advances and/or declines in demand caused by recessions etc etc.
Like Hubberts 1995 prediction.
Also as rwwff points out - the real numbers come in over time yet I dont think a decade will be neccessary for us to look back upon a peak.

At this time - if there was a pronounced peakage - we would most definately be aware of it - I dont think you are asking the question for no reason

Have we peaked in production?




Good question - looks like maybe yes and when all is said and done Predicting PO is like playing with hand grenades - getting close will do just fine

I do want to say that Peak Production is ONLY the Traditional signal of the real peak or "halfway" point and I contest that we are well beyond peak at this time. When we peak in production I believe we will be near 60% or higher of total conventional oil depletion.
The proof of this I expect to see in higher then expected decline rates. Technology is a double edged sword in more ways then one.

[bruin]

Looking at the charts, one could say December was the peak month so far.

Dr Deffeyes wasn't playing with hand grenades...he was picking a particular day. At least he didn't pick a particular hour on top of it all. I'll ease up on the guy a bit and see if he got the peak month at least.

There's a lot of news saying 2008 will see a wave of new production. Also Nigeria is supposed to be bringing some supply back on soon. So Dr Deffeyes has to hope for some serious declines from existing wells to keep December as the month.

[Micki]

Simple questions can become soo complex. The question is have we since Dec 05 at any point pumped up more oil than then.
The problem is, we meassure daily production as an average of annual production. So best would be to see when 2006 figures come out and see if the daily average is higher than it was 2005.
I don't think anyone has reasonably accurate details for lets say Dec 05 and comapre with Jan06, Feb06 etc.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bruin', 'L')ooking at the charts, one could say December was the peak month so far.

Dr Deffeyes wasn't playing with hand grenades...he was picking a particular day. At least he didn't pick a particular hour on top of it all. I'll ease up on the guy a bit and see if he got the peak month at least.

There's a lot of news saying 2008 will see a wave of new production. Also Nigeria is supposed to be bringing some supply back on soon. So Dr Deffeyes has to hope for some serious declines from existing wells to keep December as the month.