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THE Dubai Thread (merged)

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby big_rc » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 14:19:20

Went to Dubai last year. I have a buddy that lives outside of Dubai so I was there and Abu Dhabi for a couple of weeks.

First of all, there is a public transportation system but only the imported workers/"slaves" use it. I can honestly say I saw way more cars worth well north of $100K than I saw buses. After a while, it just became normal to see Bentleys, Rolls Royces and those super high end Mercedes.

Secondly the amount of money in that city is beyond ridiculous. I have never ever seen as much gaudy excess as I have seen in Dubai. It makes Las Vegas look like some backwater Midwestern US city.

Third, although the vast majority of the debauchery is hidden way, way underground, trust me there is a ton of debauchery. This is the place where Saudis and Kuwaitis come to get liquored up and run women. All that pent up repression has to find an outlet somewhere no matter what Islam says.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby misterno » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 14:39:44

The president of Dubai he himself acknowledged that their oil will run out around 2015. I watched him saying that in a documentary. I don't know about NG though.

He said they will try to invest and construct as much as they can till 2015. Alas, when the oil stops, Dubai will be a horror city. Dubai stands on cheap power. When NG hits $50/MMBTU and oil hits say $700/brl, how would you cool your homes or enjoy artificial snowboarding? They are trying the impossible.

Dubai is a perfect example of too much stupidity and too much money being together.

BTW, he ( whatever his name is) lost $20BN in Citigroup investment in 6 months. He will lose even more in Dubai and nobody is telling him.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 14:54:59

On the other hand, that tower must look really neat, rising out of the sand dunes from 100km away...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'B')TW, he ( whatever his name is) lost $20BN in Citigroup investment in 6 months. He will lose even more in Dubai and nobody is telling him.


I'm assuming you mean the Emir, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum?
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby big_rc » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 15:12:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'T')he president of Dubai he himself acknowledged that their oil will run out around 2015. I watched him saying that in a documentary. I don't know about NG though.

He said they will try to invest and construct as much as they can till 2015. Alas, when the oil stops, Dubai will be a horror city. Dubai stands on cheap power. When NG hits $50/MMBTU and oil hits say $700/brl, how would you cool your homes or enjoy artificial snowboarding? They are trying the impossible.

Dubai is a perfect example of too much stupidity and too much money being together.


I would much rather put my money on Dubai (and UAE as a whole) than I would on most other places. It might be a mess but don't forget that all of that Arab oil money is flowing straight through Dubai. As prices go up then the amount of money flow is going to rise as well. Us Westerners are helping the Emiratis build their palaces in the sky with every single gas purchase.

Also the way the immigration policies are set up over there makes it very easy to "export"/ kick out people when the time is right. There are only ~ 1M true, legitimate citizens of the UAE. Everyone else is there by government blessing only and guess what would happen to them if times got tough.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby vetusfirma » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 15:39:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'T')he president of Dubai he himself acknowledged that their oil will run out around 2015. I watched him saying that in a documentary. I don't know about NG though.

He said they will try to invest and construct as much as they can till 2015. Alas, when the oil stops, Dubai will be a horror city. Dubai stands on cheap power. When NG hits $50/MMBTU and oil hits say $700/brl, how would you cool your homes or enjoy artificial snowboarding? They are trying the impossible.

Dubai is a perfect example of too much stupidity and too much money being together.

BTW, he ( whatever his name is) lost $20BN in Citigroup investment in 6 months. He will lose even more in Dubai and nobody is telling him.


But he doesn't care. Its just money.

But another matter, when did Dubai get a president. Always thought they had an Emir?
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 15:41:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('big_rc', 'A')lso the way the immigration policies are set up over there makes it very easy to "export"/ kick out people when the time is right. There are only ~ 1M true, legitimate citizens of the UAE.

Few of them can wire a plug though.

That is the fatal flaw in the plan - all of that infrastructure is more labour-intensive than the carrying capacity of the environment. So when the locals downsize and boot out the guest workers, the essential services they provide will see corresponding cutbacks too, probably to below the threshold of viability. It may well take decades, but there is no denying the inevitability of that region's predicament. Those towers could become the greatest terrestrial monuments of industrial civilisation.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 15:43:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vetusfirma', 'B')ut another matter, when did Dubai get a president. Always thought they had an Emir?


That's correct. Dubai has an Emir, but the UAE (of which Dubai is a member) has a President.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby big_rc » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 16:31:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('big_rc', 'A')lso the way the immigration policies are set up over there makes it very easy to "export"/ kick out people when the time is right. There are only ~ 1M true, legitimate citizens of the UAE.

Few of them can wire a plug though.



Very true. Young Emirati men are notorious for being the laziest SOBs in the country. Every aspect of life is generously provided for by the government (only if you are an Emirati). Its like cradle to grave socialism on steriods. They have raised a nation of people who know how to do nothing for themselves. I guess they will have to keep a required number of approved "workers" to do the real work.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 16:42:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')Those towers could become the greatest terrestrial monuments of industrial civilisation.


They might not be around that long, at least not without Dubai becoming the next Holland:

http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=25.2860,55.3258&z=5
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 17:12:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('big_rc', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('big_rc', 'A')lso the way the immigration policies are set up over there makes it very easy to "export"/ kick out people when the time is right. There are only ~ 1M true, legitimate citizens of the UAE.

Few of them can wire a plug though.



Very true. Young Emirati men are notorious for being the laziest SOBs in the country. Every aspect of life is generously provided for by the government (only if you are an Emirati). Its like cradle to grave socialism on steriods. They have raised a nation of people who know how to do nothing for themselves. I guess they will have to keep a required number of approved "workers" to do the real work.


If times got tough, the Emirati could always migrate to Paris and try to find an outlet for their gratuitous sense of self-importance in the fashion world.

There is surely a market for elitist Arab bathrobe runway models.

Perhaps they would get lucky and catch a fashion wave of "sheik chic".
:)
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby cube » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 18:41:57

I guess one advantage of Dubai is it's not saddled with "legacy costs". What do I mean?
Sure Dubai has a certain amount of bureaucratic costs like "welfare" but at least they don't have 60million people on welfare unlike say France or just about any other western European nation. Even in a Charles Dickens capitalistic America we have huge liabilities such as social security and Medicaid. These liabilities / social welfare programs of "progressive" nations were created with the assumption they will be paid for in a future world of economic surplus and perpetual expansion! Sorry folks, the numbers don't look pretty.

As for the guest workers, the government of Dubai has wisely decided to NOT give them citizenship. Sounds mean but it was the smart thing to do. If I was a dictator of a small nation I'd create some weird nation that invited all the rich people of the world to come visit and use the place as a tax shelter. :)
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 03 Jun 2008, 22:11:41

Since when is social security and medicaid social welfare programs? People pay into these programs their whole working life.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 05:03:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'S')ince when is social security and medicaid social welfare programs? People pay into these programs their whole working life.


But they withdraw more in benefits than they pay in. And compounding of payments in depends on growth in capital markets that depend on real economic growth net of inflation. In real terms you can only withdraw 100% of what you put in. That means work a year to retire a year only with 100% taxation. Not work 35-40 years and live until you are 75-80 in combination with paying 35% in taxes. That leaves 40-years where you are consuming, but not contributing.

Of course, for the first 18-20 years you are likely living off your parents, but they do not pay taxes on your behalf even though you consume public income in the form of education and healthcare. Civil servants can typically retire after 30-years service at the age of 55. The military after just twenty years of active service. Young enough to eventually collect a second pension if they want.

Also, the workforce is never 100% of the population. So persons withdraw benefits that they have never contributed to. For example survival benefits paid out to spouses. Those under a certain income threshold pay little or no tax, but still collect benefits and use public services. A cost to society.

As the system is now it is social welfare and wealth redistribution, and is not a self-funding insurance scheme or self-funded pension scheme. You are getting a free ride on the back of today's workforce. It was designed that way.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 18:15:07

Dubai compared to Vegas? Vegas in the middle of god-forsaken no where? Every single thing flown, trucked or trained in from how far away? For what good purpose that moves humanity forward? (sound of crickets)

C'mon guys, the pots keep calling the kettle black.

What would be better? Suburbs stretching into the desert away from the shipping port? Since an urban setting is the only one that makes sense for them and they have all that money why shouldn't they add a little (lot?) creativity into the mix?

They are simply playing the hand they were dealt. Wish I had them cards.
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 19:19:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Homesteader', 'D')ubai compared to Vegas? Vegas in the middle of god-forsaken no where? Every single thing flown, trucked or trained in from how far away? For what good purpose that moves humanity forward? (sound of crickets)

C'mon guys, the pots keep calling the kettle black.

What would be better? Suburbs stretching into the desert away from the shipping port? Since an urban setting is the only one that makes sense for them and they have all that money why shouldn't they add a little (lot?) creativity into the mix?

They are simply playing the hand they were dealt. Wish I had them cards.


Reminds me of MQ's sig line.

I don't mind them building a Bedouinopolis if they want to. It just seems very short-sighted to invest so much in something that appears to be so unsustainable.
:)
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Re: The Dubai Thread

Unread postby Homesteader » Wed 04 Jun 2008, 21:38:41

UAE Dhabi starts constructing 'green city'

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has started construction of its so called 'green city' which will be named Masdar City. It is a city which is designed to have no carbon emissions, cars, or waste. It will cost $22 billion (£11 billion) and take eight years to make. It will be able to hold a population of 50,000 people and 1,500 businesses. The city will cover 1,483 acres (6.00 km²).

The city was designed by Foster and Partners, a British company.

“No one has ever built a zero-carbon city before. Nor one producing zero waste or fully powered by renewable energy. Masdar City will accomplish all three,” said Sultan Al Jaber.

Link: http://www.huliq.com/50131/uae-dhabi-st ... en-city039
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Persian Gulf nations to add 10 million bpd capacity by 2015

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 07 Sep 2008, 22:17:27

--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]PGCC oil output to rise 10m bpd by 2015

Dubai (Trade Arabia)-- A massive $300 billion investment to boost oil production is under way in the Persian Gulf and this could see the region deliver a staggering 10 million barrels of crude a day in added capacity by 2015, according to a study.

More than half of this increase will come from Saudi Arabia alone, according to the study by project research firm Proleads.

“Recent analysis of total global oil production and development projects that world crude production capacity from all sources has the potential to rise from 87 million barrels per day to as much as 108 million by 2015,” said Emil Rademeyer, director of Proleads.

“Our analysis shows that if all current projects across the region meet their projected targets in barrels of oil a day, it would mean that by 2015 the hydrocarbon rich countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) will be supplying more than half that future added oil capacity,” said Rademeyer.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Persian Gulf nations to add 10 million bpd capacity by 2

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Sun 07 Sep 2008, 22:30:30

Realistically, I think

1) they mean 10 mpd of new capacity, not additional capacity. They'll likely lose out a few mpd of capacity as fields decline (1-2 mpd). Still significant.

2) Time is a major factor which is working against them. That's 10 mpd of new fields and/or projects in 7 years? Really? KSA is having trouble with their new fields that've been in the works for a while. Do they have all of these fields lined up and they just need the money, time, labor and steel put in place? Or will they likely have to go out and find 8-9 mpd of new capacity?

I say they'll likely stay right around where they are now as far as capacity. They may move up in production to ease price pressures though.
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Re: Persian Gulf nations to add 10 million bpd capacity by 2

Unread postby Cashmere » Sun 07 Sep 2008, 22:32:51

Proleads?

Hmmm?

Do they make money by telling you oil supplies will dwindle?

Methinks not.

[web]http://www.projectsandleads.com/Subscribe.aspx[/web]
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