[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '.')..
ERoEI right in in your face people. Wake up. The horizon, she's receding very fast now.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Saw an article in the SF Chronicle a few days ago that said over the past few (maybe 4 years),supply has come up maybe 1.5%, demand at least twice that much (somewhere around 3.6 to 3.9%), but price has come up at least 300% from $45 to $135/barrel. That means that the ratio of price increase to supply increase is on the order of 200 to 1. What does that tell you all?

[wisconsin_cur]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'I') don't understand the graph.
Can you link to the original?

[Denny]

Would it not be very possible for crude oil to hit $300, but keep it at say 10% of the world economy, by economic and currency growth? More or less, that is what happned in the 1970's. At the start of the decade oil was just $2 a barrel, by the end of the decade, it was around the $18 or $20 range. People thought it was the end of world, economically speaking, when the price doubled to $5 between 1971 and 1974.

But, due to general wage and price increases, its impact was mitigated.

[patience]

Denny,
I think you're right, and that is a taste of things to come, with more of the double digit inflation that the US had in the late 1970's. I presume that Canada had a similiar experience.

[Jack]

A most interesting chart.

A picture of tragedy coming, I think.

[Denny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'D')enny,
I think you're right, and that is a taste of things to come, with more of the double digit inflation that the US had in the late 1970's. I presume that Canada had a similiar experience.

[Ludi]

"They were running hand in hand, and the Queen went so fast that it was all she could do to keep up with her...The most curious part of the thing was, that the trees and the other things around them never seemed to changed their places at all."

[fletch_961]

Where is the source for those data points. One of the data points shows oil at ~$4 a barrel and 20+ billion barrels a day produced. When did that occur? 1973? And yet it on the a graph with an overlay of 2008 World GDP? The most recent numbers match reality---ie the ~$100 & ~27Bbpd is ~5% of world GDP, but World GDP was a fraction of what it is now back when oil was $4. And oil was considerably more than 1% of GDP back then.

I'm glad some of you can draw a conclusion from it. Oil at 1973 prices and production rates would be 1% of 2008's GDP. Great!!!!

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '[')img]http://www.victorianweb.org/art/illustration/tenniel/lookingglass/2.4.jpg[/img]



"They were running hand in hand, and the Queen went so fast that it was all she could do to keep up with her...The most curious part of the thing was, that the trees and the other things around them never seemed to changed their places at all."

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', 'W')here is the source for those data points. One of the data points shows oil at ~$4 a barrel and 20+ billion barrels a day produced. When did that occur? 1973? And yet it on the a graph with an overlay of 2008 World GDP? The most recent numbers match reality---ie the ~$100 & ~27Bbpd is ~5% of world GDP, but World GDP was a fraction of what it is now back when oil was $4. And oil was considerably more than 1% of GDP back then.

I'm glad some of you can draw a conclusion from it. Oil at 1973 prices and production rates would be 1% of 2008's GDP. Great!!!!

[Revi]

No, I was able to see May on Deffeye's site. It looks like we're literally up against the wall now!

I wonder if the price of oil will just keep going up without a pause? There may be some kind of a plateau or even a tiny decline before it shoots up again.

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's a good question, Deffeyes doesn't state, but it appears to be annual data in the past, with more frequently calculated and prorated points closer to the present.

[wisconsin_cur]

Having checked the numbers on the back of an envelop here, it still looks like his calculations for percentage of world GDP spent on oil are more or less correct for today.

How much do you think we might spend on energy before we reach a ceiling?

Is there a way to come to an informed opinion on the matter?

[MD]

This chart has evoked strong reaction, which is understandable.

I'll make no attempts to pick at Deffeye's data, since it wasn't provided, and he's not here to defend himself. This chart wasn't posted to the internet for peer review, as best I can determine, and subjecting it to such here is a waste of time, unless you are willing to reconstruct the data yourself and post a rebuttal.

I do agree that the "crashing economy" bit is unnecessarily sensational. He could have pointed out that the economy will only crash in certain segments. The energy economy and all widely related activities will boom along nicely, taking an ever greater share of global economic activity for long into the future.

[fletch_961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')aving checked the numbers on the back of an envelop here, it still looks like his calculations for percentage of world GDP spent on oil are more or less correct for today.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch_961', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I doubt $300 oil means "smoldering ruins" for the world economy. A paradigm shift certainly.

[dohboi]

While all these smart people are looking at data, I have been wondering about something, and would very much apprciate any feedback.

Since about 2000, the price of oil has been rising on a roughly exponential curve, about doubling every two years: ~$10/bbl in 2000, $20 in '02, $40 in '04, ~$80 in '06, and we are now well on our way toward $160 in '08.

This has been going on before most even here see us on the downward slope of Hubbert Peak.

So what should we expect prices to do as we arive at the downward slope?

A continuation of exponential growth at current rates, horrific as that is for anyone who understands the long term consequences, would seem a wildly optimistic forcast.

But maybe when the much ballyhoo'ed "demand destruction" sets in, that will moderate price? Or will geological limits and "positive" feedbacks (hording, speculation, wars...) swamp the "negative" feedback loop of demand destruction?

If the rate of price increase accelerates, what does it accelerate to? A steeper exponential curve, doubling every year? Every half year (the rate it is on, if you consider the last three months)?

Or could the period of doubling progressively shrink? Kicking us into some kind of hyperbolic curve?

Thoughts? Insights?

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'S')o what should we expect prices to do as we arive at the downward slope?