[yesplease]

Not according to Geologist R. Keith Evans.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill Moore', 'H')ow much lithium is there in the world in Evan's professional analysis? He estimates it at 28.4 million tonnes of lithium, which is equivalent to 150 million tonnes of lithium carbonate. Current world demand is 16,000 tonnes.

[mos6507]

Lithium is common enough that there is no recycling infrastructure for used lithium batteries. I think this is short-sighted, but it does give you an idea of where we are on the depletion curve for this element, which is nowhere near a danger point.

[Tyler_JC]

Peak Lithium?



I guess that explains Golem...

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')eak Lithium?



I guess that explains Golem...

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')eak Lithium?



I guess that explains Golem...

[FreakOil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')eak Lithium?



I guess that explains Golem...

[yesplease]

OIC! Thanks.

[whereagles]

Well, that's strange.. I read that a golem is a mythological creature which is summoned by chanting a spell while moulding clay into a human shape. After the shape is done and the spell is over, you write EMET in its head. The clay shape then magnifies, gains life and becomes a servant of its creator until the word EMET is erased from its forehead.

[Cashmere]

This stinks. It's stinks like fresh shit.


Let's see if I've got this.

In 1976, there was enough concern about Lithium to assemble a task force to analyze it.

A guy recently does an analysis and says, "we don't have enough, EV is dead as an alternative to IC engines".

A year or so later a counter report comes out that says, "nothing to see here folks, keep moving, plenty of lithium."

It stinks.

The first question I have is, what is R. Keith Evans connection to all of this?

So you check his blog, and you find that he's worked for mineral/mining companies since the 70s, and that "he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals."

So let me translate that for you. This guy Evans is the mining industry stooge, and his likely motivation for the "nothing to see here folks" paper is very simple - if the EV car never takes off, his employers don't make more money.

It's the same stinky story that we juts lived over the last 30 years.

This guy Evans is the equivalent to Big Oil CERA type stooges who have lied for the last 30 years about how much oil is available for our use.

My current conclusion is . . .

Lithium supply is an issue and more analysis needs to be done.

I had hoped that a rough transition to EVs was possible.

Then I saw that a retrofit battery pack for the Prius was 10 grand.

Then I heard the Chevy Volt was going to cost 40 grand.

Now I'm starting to believe that the EV movement is not going to happen.

The whole lithium thing smacks of oil's history - 76 meeting predicting production issues - Hubbard, initial paper questioning supply, immediate industry response - no worries here.


Stinks.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '.')...
My current conclusion is . . .

Lithium supply is an issue and more analysis needs to be done.

I had hoped that a rough transition to EVs was possible.

Then I saw that a retrofit battery pack for the Prius was 10 grand.

Then I heard the Chevy Volt was going to cost 40 grand.

Now I'm starting to believe that the EV movement is not going to happen.

[Cashmere]

Yeah cube, it's depressing.

More depressing is the fact that there is going to be a gasoline generator in the car.

To me, that means that the electric only range is going to suck.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
')More depressing is the fact that there is going to be a gasoline generator in the car.

[johhnytrash]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'Y')eah cube, it's depressing.

More depressing is the fact that there is going to be a gasoline generator in the car.

To me, that means that the electric only range is going to suck.

[lowem]

It's funny how proponents of "peak lithium" are often the same people pushing the Zebra battery, which operates at over 400 degC (750 degF) and has been found most suitable so far in guided missiles such as the Sidewinder and Tomahawk - an obviously throw-away, one-time use application.

There is some degree of truth to the "peak lithium" theory, but only barely. There is enough lithium to go around. The only issue is finding enough of it concentrated in "economic" deposits, mostly in brine (salt) lakes and ponds.

Currently people do not even bother to recycle lithium and this gives you some indication of how cheap it is right now, compared with Ni-MH batteries which are mainly nickel, a metal costing an exorbitant $22,000 per metric ton (for comparison, lithium is around $8,000 which is about where copper prices are as well).

And if you are an investor, lithium is a great investment theme. Prices may be cheap now but they won't stay cheap forever.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'S')o you check his blog, and you find that he's worked for mineral/mining companies since the 70s, and that "he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals."

So let me translate that for you. This guy Evans is the mining industry stooge, and his likely motivation for the "nothing to see here folks" paper is very simple - if the EV car never takes off, his employers don't make more money.

[Cashmere]

Yes Please - I'll get back to the papers.

I need time to do the analysis.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is some degree of truth to the "peak lithium" theory, but only barely. There is enough lithium to go around. The only issue is finding enough of it concentrated in "economic" deposits, mostly in brine (salt) lakes and ponds.

[tsakach]

Here is a nice cheerful analysis of why the potential exists for shortages of cheap lithium:
The Trouble With Lithium

Some highlights include:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')list]South America holds nearly 80% of the known Global Lithium Reserve Base.

Only Lithium from the Brine Lakes and Salt Pans will ever be useable to manufacture batteries.

The deposits in Nevada are in decline and many older Lithium deposits in the USA are now uneconomic.

Exclusive dependency on Lithium Ion batteries, where the Lithium will overwhelmingly come from South America, would be like being dependent on South America for 100% of our oil supply.

Future Lithium Carbonate Demand could exceed 2% of the Global Li2CO3 Reserve Base per annum.

The expansion of lithium mining required to support a plug-in hybrid world would be enormous relative to present day production

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'Y')es Please - I'll get back to the papers.

I need time to do the analysis.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')eak Lithium?



I guess that explains Golem...

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'H')as it even remotely occurred to you that we don't recycle lithium ions because it would be too difficult to pull it back out of the batteries? This isn't aluminum cans we're talking about here.