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CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Tue 27 May 2008, 22:19:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')Most economists rountinely state that the effects of wholesale price increases take two years to be fully reflected at the retail level.


Just goes to show that we aint seen nothin yet 8O
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 23:07:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'P')eople driving less isn't a precursion to Doom, its a precursor to people demanding the replacement for ICE powered transport.


One could hope... but I'm not. I know plenty of posters live in places where folks drive by in nice shiny, relatively new cars and suvs; I look out my window.. maybe.. MAYBE 10% of the drivers I see riding by could afford one of the suggested ICE alternatives.


I'm guessing there were people riding horses prior to when the Model T came out, no one said that driving new age transport will be cheap. It might be good that it NOT be cheap for awhile, so Americans can appreciate how easy they've had it, transport wise, for decades now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')It seems to me, just on the suggested vehicle cost and the assumed gas costs; that the only ones likely to buy the ICE replacements could simply choose to pay the higher price of fuel.


Sure...but all it takes is waiting in lines with the rest of the sheeple during a shortage before people realize that fueling up overnight in your garage might not be such a bad idea.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Those that are getting bumped off the road by cost, aren't replacing their vehicles; they are just driving less... and less... and less..


EXCELLENT!!! We save the world and cure peak oil at the same time! I like this concept...but optimism...around here...better be careful!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Now, if GM or Toyota bring an $18k car to market that gets 60mpg or plugs into a wall socket; I might change my tune!


I am waiting eagerly for Honda's next hybrid myself...I'm guessing a contest between Honda and Toyota for "fuel sipper" crown will be one of the better contests of the century.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou don't think GM investing billions in the Volt, Toyota in the Prius or Honda in the Clarity is just financially incompetent car manufacturers do you?


Course not; they've never financially botched it before have they. That aside; the target market for the Prius isn't exactly the person who has trouble paying $4 / gallon for gasoline.


Quite true...those of us who drive hybrids have at least a little "save the world" component in us as well....although I didn't get the Prius, I like to hide my "green" street cred a little more, that Prius just SCREAMS "look at me!!!".
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby joewp » Tue 27 May 2008, 23:49:02

This is what less driving is doing to my area:

Economy Keeps Jersey Shore Travelers At Bay
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Shore towns and businesses usually get a good indication from Memorial Day how they'll fare the rest of the season. The beautiful weather has many thinking it may well be a good one.

But with so many rentals still available on the shore, that may not be the case. Many beach-goers say it wasn't much of a problem finding a great deal on a house at the shore.

"It was $11,500 this summer, which was reasonable – a house 12 blocks from the beach," said Belmar renter John Candiano.

And they say there were a lot of homes to choose from.

"Rentals have been down year after year, but there are a lot of vacancies this year," said realtor Steven Weckstein.

And realtors say some owners are willing to take much less this season for their rentals.

"I'd say around 10 to 20 percent because they'd rather have someone in the house than leave it vacant," said Weckstein.

One landlord told CBS 2 he's getting 25 percent less for his rental. He owns 65 properties.

"Lake Como and Belmar areas are extremely soft," he said.


A few people I know that have businesses on the boardwalk in Seaside Heights and Point Pleasant said there was a little less people, but they were spending a lot less. Jersey shore towns depend on Memorial Day to Labor Day for their income for the year. If they don't get it, they'll go bankrupt. I was at Belmar Beach on Sunday and it was about 3/4 of a normal Memorial Day.

The newest trend is the "Staycation":

One of many, check Goolge News
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')As the summer travel season begins this weekend, there is plenty to be frustrated about. It costs us more to drive, more to fly, more to eat and more to sleep once we get there.

At home, meanwhile, we feel pinched by higher grocery bills, tight credit and slow-growing wages.

The result?

Fewer vacations. Shorter distances. Not as many days on the road.

It already shows up in the mobility numbers.

In March, we drove 11 billion fewer miles than that month the previous year, the biggest year-over-year drop for any month since the Federal Highway Administration started tracking the information in 1942.

And just last week, a new Zogby poll of 8,600 adults found that one-third planned no vacation at all this summer, and 28 percent said they would spend less.

Another survey recently found that the number of people expecting to travel by fall had dipped to a 30-year low.


And just to irk you "soft landers" a little bit more, lower driving means less gas taxes, which means less money to maintain the roads, which means broken axles on 3,000 mile Caesar Salad trucks, just like Kunstler has predicted over and over again.

I think people like jbeck, OF2, KTH and JD have blinders one that won't let them see the insidious nature of what we're headed into.
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 28 May 2008, 00:29:04

Optimists take note: US industrial production of consumer goods was already falling year over year in April.

See page 8 of this report:

US Industrial Production

Energy consumption is closely coorelated to industrial production. Falling miles driven means less economic activity.

However total gasoline consumed is falling much slower due to less efficiency (use of ethanol), net larger vehicles, and increasing suburbanization.
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 28 May 2008, 01:13:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')I think people like jbeck, OF2, KTH and JD have blinders one that won't let them see the insidious nature of what we're headed into.


You mean, less consumption, more conservation, reorientation about important things like the quality of our locality, that sort of stuff?

I dunno...I'm still waiting for anything different than what happened in the 70's, we haven't even gotten a decent shortage or rationing scheme going yet....things are just pricier which...I think..is called inflation...and has been around...like...since...FOREVER!

Maybe I do have blinders on, having lived through the last time this same hysteria was being trumpeted by the rooftops by McDoomers.
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 28 May 2008, 02:22:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')That Prius just SCREAMS "look at me!!!".


The Prius doesn't turn any heads anymore because there are over a million of them on the road now. It's no more unusual a sight than a New Beetle, PT Cruiser, or any other unusual-looking car that has sold a lot.
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 28 May 2008, 09:50:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')That Prius just SCREAMS "look at me!!!".


The Prius doesn't turn any heads anymore because there are over a million of them on the road now. It's no more unusual a sight than a New Beetle, PT Cruiser, or any other unusual-looking car that has sold a lot.


So you are saying that instead of being the fringe technology it once was, it now has achieved mainstream status? I wonder how long it will take for PHEV's and EV's and fuel cell cars to do the same thing?
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Wed 28 May 2008, 12:01:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')That Prius just SCREAMS "look at me!!!".


The Prius doesn't turn any heads anymore because there are over a million of them on the road now. It's no more unusual a sight than a New Beetle, PT Cruiser, or any other unusual-looking car that has sold a lot.


So you are saying that instead of being the fringe technology it once was, it now has achieved mainstream status? I wonder how long it will take for PHEV's and EV's and fuel cell cars to do the same thing?


...as mainstream as a car constituting 1% of all auto sales can be.
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby Byron100 » Wed 28 May 2008, 12:41:40

Some thoughts about the demise of the tourism "industry"...is it really worth shedding tears over the loss of such a useless economic activity? I think not. Tourism jobs don't pay squat, and makes the cost of living unaffordable for local residents. Imagine how Key West would be like if all the tourists went away? Exactly, a quaint little fishing village filled with $20,000 shacks, which is how it SHOULD be. And one big, huge incentive I have to living to a nice old age is seeing the demise of Disney World in central Florida, and seeing that land go back to nature...to me, that would be like witnessing a miracle of God.

End of tourism because people can no longer afford to take road trips...that suits me just fine. :-D The coming of Peak Oil certainly does have its benefits, for sure. :lol:

(Wanna know why I hate tourists so much? I lived in Florida for 13 years...you have no idea...you really don't. Oh, the level of hate I harbored towards them....LOL).
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 28 May 2008, 13:05:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '
')
(Wanna know why I hate tourists so much? I lived in Florida for 13 years...you have no idea...you really don't. Oh, the level of hate I harbored towards them....LOL).


haha I understand totally. I grew up in SE New Mexico. Our problem wasn't tourist but out-of-state hunters mainly from Texas. They would come in hoards to camp for a week and shoot as much stuff as they possibly could. It brought business to the state but it also brought a lot of hardships especially for private landowners.

If you have to open a gate to get somewhere then close that gate behind you and never ever cut a fence. Some people don't realize gates and fences are not just for looks.

Anyways, I went to LAX last Sunday morning to drop my parents off so they could catch their flight. It was the first time I thought people are actually reducing the amount they are driving in a significant way. There was practically noone on the 405 N freeway. It was amazing.

Therefore, I enjoyed cruising most of the way at around 85mph just to celebrate. Usually I am lucky to get up to 55mph so this time I splurged. :-D

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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby Narz » Wed 28 May 2008, 13:15:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'A')nd you think this site is just a bunch of doomers? Not even close. You want real doom? Look here:

doom link 1
doom link 2

Image
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby misterno » Wed 28 May 2008, 13:59:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'S')ay bye bye to the tourism industry.


Tourism isn't going anywhere.

We have Greyhound buses
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 28 May 2008, 14:23:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'S')ay bye bye to the tourism industry.


Tourism isn't going anywhere.

We have Greyhound buses


Greyhounds still have to pay for fuel.

The big problem I have with Greyhounds is not many direct routes. Some stop in every little town to pick up or unload passengers.

Maybe they are getting better. Hopefully.

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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 28 May 2008, 20:26:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')
...as mainstream as a car constituting 1% of all auto sales can be.


As long as its still in exponential growth phase, I have Albert Bartlett on my side! Just a little while ago, it was only 0.1%. Sneeze, and PRESTO! Its 10%. Fall asleep waiting for Doom to arrive, and its ALL.
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 28 May 2008, 20:41:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'A')nd you think this site is just a bunch of doomers? Not even close. You want real doom? Look here:

doom link 1
doom link 2

Image
Hey baby, how about a date? You, me, 3,000 pounds of "nitro-pak" food and a romantic hideaway (bunker in the ground). :lol:


I guess I'm confused as to what silly survivalist sites have to do with hot looking Doomer chics?
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 28 May 2008, 20:45:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'S')ay bye bye to the tourism industry.


Tourism isn't going anywhere.

We have Greyhound buses


Greyhounds still have to pay for fuel.

The big problem I have with Greyhounds is not many direct routes. Some stop in every little town to pick up or unload passengers.

Maybe they are getting better. Hopefully.

joeltrout


It's the opposite here in Oregon, Greyhound cut service to various small towns along I5 - and bragged about it on billboards; the ad listed all the towns on the route, with the canceled stops blurred out. :-x They'll change their tune soon enough.

Hybrid sales:

Image

Forecasts for 2008 are ca. 500k.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby jbeckton » Wed 28 May 2008, 20:55:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')Who said anyway that the US would immeadiately go into a depression? Can you quote just one person who said the US would immeadiately go into a recession when oil reached a certain price?


Yup, and I would if I really thought you never saw anyone say that.

Define immediate. Oil hit $100 5 months ago and we are talking about modified travel plans. I don't think most doomers saw that in the cards 2-3 years ago.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby DantesPeak » Wed 28 May 2008, 21:05:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')Who said anyway that the US would immeadiately go into a depression? Can you quote just one person who said the US would immeadiately go into a recession when oil reached a certain price?


Yup, and I would if I really thought you never saw anyone say that.

Define immediate. Oil hit $100 5 months ago and we are talking about modified travel plans. I don't think most doomers saw that in the cards 2-3 years ago.


The US economy still hasn't completely repriced goods and services to $50 oil.

You're rushing things.

Because the price rise in oil has accelerated over the last year, we can look forward to an accelerated economic decline over the next two years (barring some unexpected drop in the price of oil).
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby jbeckton » Thu 29 May 2008, 11:14:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')I think people like jbeck, OF2, KTH and JD have blinders one that won't let them see the insidious nature of what we're headed into.


Either that, or the inteligence to look past the hype!
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby jbeckton » Thu 29 May 2008, 11:20:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')The US economy still hasn't completely repriced goods and services to $50 oil.

You're rushing things.

Because the price rise in oil has accelerated over the last year, we can look forward to an accelerated economic decline over the next two years (barring some unexpected drop in the price of oil).


And what will be the excuse next year?
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