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CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby AgentR » Tue 27 May 2008, 02:20:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'W')asn't really expecting that sort of effect for quite a while; disturbing to see it already having an effect on the macro scale.


Disturbing? Its just the most recent sign of economics working the way they are SUPPOSED to....why would someone be disturbed by something which is perfectly acceptable?


I thought, or maybe hoped, that there was more elasticity in the consumer market than there apparently is. I thought, or perhaps hoped, that things would string along long enough for me to die of old age ( :roll: ) before REALLY bad stuff starts happening. I had expected, (wished for?), that graph to happen in about 5-10 yrs at the $10-$15 / gallon point.

Its kinda like; you prepare yourself to be able to work a few acres of garden and a dozen or so acre-feet of fish pond, but you really, Really, REALLY, hope that its all just for fun... a diversion for the mind.. a peculiar fantasy of doomer-porn...

Not, O crud, next year's potatoes could go from entertainment spuds.. to subsistence spuds.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ouble the price of something, people are going to use less. I say double it again...give the alternatives LOTS of room to manuveur underneath. Tax it to that rate, and then stand back and let economic theory continue to work to your advantage.


Well.. THAT won't happen. No politician in America could ever survive a vote like that.
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby phaeryen » Tue 27 May 2008, 06:48:55

Everyone already knows it but just a reminder: any drop in US consumption is immediately absorbed by the growth of demand in china+india and others, so from a global peak oil perspective america driving less is a non-event.

Many of you guys are north american though, and less driving might indicate that some adaptation to the problem is taking place. Or it just might be, for the most part, brutal demand destruction resulting in restless angry sheeple.
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 11:00:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')
Its kinda like; you prepare yourself to be able to work a few acres of garden and a dozen or so acre-feet of fish pond, but you really, Really, REALLY, hope that its all just for fun... a diversion for the mind.. a peculiar fantasy of doomer-porn...

Not, O crud, next year's potatoes could go from entertainment spuds.. to subsistence spuds.



People driving less isn't a precursion to Doom, its a precursor to people demanding the replacement for ICE powered transport.

While the Doomer component of organic farming, devouring our neighbors, and gunning down zombie suburbanites in the streets is an amusing distraction by the less rational in the group, its just bored people trying to "out-silly" each other.

High fuel costs are doinig EXACTLY what they are supposed to do....drive alternatives. You don't think GM investing billions in the Volt, Toyota in the Prius or Honda in the Clarity is just financially incompetent car manufacturers do you? They know whats starting to happen, and are positioning themselves to take advantage of the next generation of personal transport.

We're in the midst of the exact mitigation that could be expected if a high priority transport fuel got more expensive.
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 27 May 2008, 11:08:31

Weekly figures from the US energy adminstration don't indicate anything more than a minor fall off in gasoline demand.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wgfupus2w.htm

Final monthly revisions for March are not yet available, but at most, I think March gasoline use per the DOE would be down only 1%.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Tue 27 May 2008, 11:21:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CNN: Driving down 4.3% from last year

Unread postby pup55 » Tue 27 May 2008, 11:15:04

If not lost in one of the other threads, we did a calculation the other day that pointed out that there were 22 commuting days in March of 07, but 21 commuting days in March of 08, a decrease of 4.3%

January and February of '08 were up versus last year.

DP is right. The actual products supplied numbers are pretty consistently within a percentage or so, and the "calculated demand" which we do, has been equal out to the second decimal place the last few weeks.
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Re: The precipice has been breached...Vehicle Miles

Unread postby AgentR » Tue 27 May 2008, 11:40:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'P')eople driving less isn't a precursion to Doom, its a precursor to people demanding the replacement for ICE powered transport.


One could hope... but I'm not. I know plenty of posters live in places where folks drive by in nice shiny, relatively new cars and suvs; I look out my window.. maybe.. MAYBE 10% of the drivers I see riding by could afford one of the suggested ICE alternatives.

It seems to me, just on the suggested vehicle cost and the assumed gas costs; that the only ones likely to buy the ICE replacements could simply choose to pay the higher price of fuel. Those that are getting bumped off the road by cost, aren't replacing their vehicles; they are just driving less... and less... and less..

Now, if GM or Toyota bring an $18k car to market that gets 60mpg or plugs into a wall socket; I might change my tune!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile the Doomer component of organic farming, devouring our neighbors, and gunning down zombie suburbanites in the streets is an amusing distraction by the less rational in the group, its just bored people trying to "out-silly" each other.


I've never bought the "organic only farming" and "cannibalistic zombie horde" arguments.. However, that doesn't imply that the economy and world trade can't go belly up as a result of diminishing supply and growing demand for oil.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou don't think GM investing billions in the Volt, Toyota in the Prius or Honda in the Clarity is just financially incompetent car manufacturers do you?


Course not; they've never financially botched it before have they. That aside; the target market for the Prius isn't exactly the person who has trouble paying $4 / gallon for gasoline.
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US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 27 May 2008, 20:27:03

Biggest drop in miles traveled since 1942

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')mericans Driving At Historic Lows
Eleven Billion Fewer Vehicle Miles Traveled in March 2008 Over Previous March

WASHINGTON -- Americans drove less in March 2008, continuing a trend that began last November, according to estimates released today from the Federal Highway Administration.

“That Americans are driving less underscores the challenges facing the Highway Trust Fund and its reliance on the federal gasoline excise tax,” said Acting Federal Highway Administrator Jim Ray.

The FHWA’s “Traffic Volume Trends” report, produced monthly since 1942, shows that estimated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) on all U.S. public roads for March 2008 fell 4.3 percent as compared with March 2007 travel. This is the first time estimated March travel on public roads fell since 1979. At 11 billion miles less in March 2008 than in the previous March, this is the sharpest yearly drop for any month in FHWA history.

http://www.dot.gov/affairs/fhwa1108.htm
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby joeltrout » Tue 27 May 2008, 20:36:37

I am looking forward to the Memorial Day driving numbers.

That too should show us how much people are being affected.

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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby joewp » Tue 27 May 2008, 20:37:22

Yep, and as VMT keeps declining, the country will slip a little deeper into recession and eventually into depression. By the way, since about 10% of the fuel in our gas tanks is now ethanol, you won't see a corresponding decline in gasoline usage, since there's less energy in your tank and you need more fuel to go the same mileage.

Are you becoming a doomer or something, JD?
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby cube » Tue 27 May 2008, 20:58:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '.')..
Are you becoming a doomer or something, JD?
This seems so out of character for JD.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby Impervius » Tue 27 May 2008, 21:03:27

What makes me laugh is AAA's prediction that Memorial Day weekend driving would be down by 1%.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 27 May 2008, 21:08:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'B')iggest drop in miles traveled since 1942


That's not what your article says.

This thread is also a dup of this one and should be combined:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic40472-0-asc-0.html
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby Blacksmith » Tue 27 May 2008, 21:08:34

Wishfull thinking.

Tell that to the guy who passed me ( going 95 mph) in the bus sized motor home, pulling a Lexus SUV.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby jbeckton » Tue 27 May 2008, 21:46:04

Not long ago there are more than a few people here who would have said $130 oil would have us ALREADY well into a great depression let alone a recession.

We shall see just how inelastic oil is in the comming years.

Me, I see SUV's rusting on the lot while hybrids and compacts begin to fill the roads.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby frankthetank » Tue 27 May 2008, 21:54:14

Say bye bye to the tourism industry.
lawns should be outlawed.
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 27 May 2008, 21:54:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Blacksmith', 'W')ishfull thinking.

Tell that to the guy who passed me ( going 95 mph) in the bus sized motor home, pulling a Lexus SUV.


95 mph in a frickin' motorhome???

Now, that's yet another reason to "hate" the rich...LOL...that's just downright dangerous to the rest of us, as opposed to merely being snotty and rude.

Anyone else around here think that bringing back the "luxury tax" on Very Large Vehicles and yachts is long overdue?
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Re: US miles driven falls off a cliff

Unread postby DantesPeak » Tue 27 May 2008, 22:01:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jbeckton', 'N')ot long ago there are more than a few people here who would have said $130 oil would have us ALREADY well into a great depression let alone a recession.

We shall see just how inelastic oil is in the comming years.

Me, I see SUV's rusting on the lot while hybrids and compacts begin to fill the roads.


The price of all goods and services do not immeadiately reflect the price of oil at $135. Up until August 2007, the price of US oil imports averaged about $60 for the year. Goods, services, etc. are probably still priced for $50 to $60 oil. Infrastructure was built with even cheaper oil.

Who said anyway that the US would immeadiately go into a depression? Can you quote just one person who said the US would immeadiately go into a recession when oil reached a certain price? Most economists rountinely state that the effects of wholesale price increases take two years to be fully reflected at the retail level.
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