by FoolYap » Sun 25 May 2008, 20:12:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doodlebug2', 'I') read that oil supplies are endless and others say that peak oil is here, like others I get contradictions all the time on this issue.
Supplies are clearly not endless. Some believe in "abiotic" oil formation (I don't), but even they can't point to any meaningful amount of oil formation over human- (as opposed to geologic-) scale times.
I suspect what you've sometimes heard from those who believe it's "endless" is that Peak Oil says that oil has almost run out? It hasn't. Other than perhaps a lunatic on the fringe or two, no peakist says that. What we think we're reaching is not the end of oil, it's the global maximum in oil production. Once production can never rise higher, yet demand wants more, we are in an era of rising prices and scarcity for those who can't afford it.
And it's often not clear what peak people are referring to. Is it light sweet crude? Probably reached that a few years back. Is it conventional crude? Probably there now. Is it "liquids" including natural gas condensates and tar sands "oil"? Maybe we're not there yet.
People who think that, were it not for environmentalists who prevent drilling everywhere, we'd have all the oil we ever need, are kidding themselves. We'll continue to find more oil, but chances are good we've already found most of the best large fields. Read Simmons' "Twilight in the Desert" for some good information on this (assuming you don't already know it all, grin).
--Steve