by mididoctors » Tue 20 May 2008, 18:41:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'L')ike Bakhtari said, we are past the point where we should be obsessing on modeling.
I quit playing with spreadsheets after the invasion of Iraq. I drop in on TOD from time to time, but for the most part they are still fighting the last war.
yeah I sort of get that feeling too
Boris
London
by TheDude » Wed 21 May 2008, 11:41:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'L')ike Bakhtari said, we are past the point where we should be obsessing on modeling.
I quit playing with spreadsheets after the invasion of Iraq. I drop in on TOD from time to time, but for the most part they are still fighting the last war.
Conversely I look at the Megaprojects forecast and wonder if we'll pull through all right. There is enough oil coming on line in the next 4 years to maintain BAU from the looks of things. And if the price keeps heading for escape velocity anyway eventually we'll hit demand destruction - which will likely be exacerbated by a good solid recession - or depression.
But then the price will go back down - possibly to the point where many of these projects will become uneconomical all over again...I'd like to see that scenario examined more closely.
It certainly doesn't look like we'll be flooding the world with oil again.
by Graeme » Wed 21 May 2008, 22:09:24
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('darren', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')So you can see that this is significant. Even so-called experts not only cannot agree when peak oil will occur but they keep shifting their predictions to a later date.
So.... what exactly do you think we should infer from this? That oil production will never peak?
We're essentially flat since 05... the Peak Oil crowd is not exactly refuted by that fact.
Forecasting is difficult. Some forecasts will be too early. Some (CERA) will be far too late. It is pointless to throw around insults like "peak oil hysteria" and "cornucopian lunacy", as long as these forecasts are grounded in intellectually honest attempts to understand what is going on.
I am simply making an observation. The conclusion is that nobody can accurately predict when peak oil will occur. This means that it is possible that it is not happening now even if oil prices are high. High oil prices may be caused by other factors besides peak oil. We have discussing these in other threads, e.g. the oil non-bubble or intentional collapse of USA.
There's a good discussion about oil prices in this
thread too.
"Peak oil hysteria" just happened to be the title of the article, which contained the graph I was interested in. Actually, there is no need to get hysterical about what is happening so in that sense it is appropriate.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
by Pops » Wed 21 May 2008, 22:54:38
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')Actually, there is no need to get hysterical about what is happening so in that sense it is appropriate.
I don't know about hysteria Graeme, I don't feel that way, but I do see real effects on the people around me and feel real concern about the effect on my personal economy and more so on those unprepared for a change.
Is your economy so separate from others you feel no concern with the current state of energy cost and the stuff going on downstream from you?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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by copious.abundance » Wed 21 May 2008, 22:58:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'I')nvasion of the trolls. I say we barbecue all trolls in this forum from now on.
![[smilie=violent5.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/violent5.gif "violent5")
If you don't believe in peak oil, why in the hell are you even here? Just to stir up trouble?
Have you, John Denver, OF 1 and 2 ever considered starting your own cornucopian forum? I think we could all appreciate that.
So, you want this forum to be nothing but a mutual admiration society, with all dissent stymied. Nice.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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by Graeme » Thu 22 May 2008, 02:00:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')Actually, there is no need to get hysterical about what is happening so in that sense it is appropriate.
I don't know about hysteria Graeme, I don't feel that way, but I do see real effects on the people around me and feel real concern about the effect on my personal economy and more so on those unprepared for a change.
Is your economy so separate from others you feel no concern with the current state of energy cost and the stuff going on downstream from you?
That's a fair comment, Pops. Working- and middle-class people, like me, are all feeling the pain. Another reason I'm posting here is to try and find out the real reason behind recent high oil prices. It's important that we all
understand the real reasons for high oil prices and when peak oil is likely to occur (not now, but certainly later) instead of running around like Chicken Little saying the sky is falling in (i.e., hysterical, and peak oil is happening NOW, let's run for the hills).
Even though this article was written by
Engdahl (and published by Leanan on front page), it does sum up what I am also thinking is happening:
The Real Reason Behind Record High Oil Prices- Part 2 $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he problem is not a lack of crude oil supply. In fact the world is in over-supply now. Yet the price climbs relentlessly higher. Why? The answer lies in what are clearly deliberate US government policies that permit the unbridled oil price manipulations.
What can you do about it? Well, I'm open to suggestions. I've been posting numerous alternatives for quite some time now.
Alternative fuels (biobutanol - people will be screaming for such an alternative when gasoline is priced out of their budget).
Isn't there an election coming up in USA later this year? Become politically involved. Lobby. Vote.
I'm sure you and others can think of more. . .
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
by KillTheHumans » Thu 22 May 2008, 10:32:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'I')nvasion of the trolls. I say we barbecue all trolls in this forum from now on.
If you don't believe in peak oil, why in the hell are you even here? Just to stir up trouble?
Have you, John Denver, OF 1 and 2 ever considered starting your own cornucopian forum? I think we could all appreciate that.
So, you want this forum to be nothing but a mutual admiration society, with all dissent stymied. Nice.
You haven't mistaken it for something else have you? Anyone who disagrees with the favorite scenario de jeur is labelled a troll, called names, heck, you can't even notice that peak oil apparently happened in the late-70's, 2005, and again in 2008 without people getting cranky with you.
