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Peak Oil Hysteria

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Jupidu » Mon 19 May 2008, 11:16:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you another who won't tolerate a different point of view?


Graeme is right. If it isn't allow to present another point of view then we have a reached a point of fascist system: One opinion for this, one opinion for that, end of the discussion.

If a point of view or a opinion is false then it should be no problem to prove the opposite. Everybody can learn in the process of getting the best knowledge in a subject. Even scientists are discussing over and over again.
This happened in the twenties of the last century when Bohr or Heisenberg and other nuclear scientists discussed the theories of Einstein (e.g. the construction of matter) and it is happening today e.g. about the development of the universe.
I own a book called "How to discuss with fanatics". It's a quite boring book because it has a lot to do with philosophy and how to argue correctly when analysing a hypothesis.

At least one sentence (in the first pages ;-) ) i remember quite good:
To discuss facts is a neverending story, to discuss a faith is much easier.

No one can really say how many small peasants have to give up agriculture because they can't afford the diesel any more. What about all the thousand small fishers in their boats with diesel engines? In many (poor!) countries power is produced by diesel-engine-driven generators, but the same e.g. in Lebanon!

Rapeseed (Harvest August '08 at RMX in Hannover, Germany: http://www.raiffeisen.com/markt/telegra ... index_html ) costs 435€/t (1t =1000kg). With a oil mass proportion of 33% (realistic value) you can press 330kg oil out of 1t of rapeseed, thats 359 Liter (0,92kg/L)=> Only the oil in the raw material costs 1,21 €/Liter without costs of pressing, transport, depot, taxes, Chemical anlysis, etc.
One Liter of crude oil (126$/bl, 159Liter) costs 0,51€, for diesel (refinery) you have to add 0,065€ /Liter = 0,573€/Liter.
When this two prices (or even earlier with the price of palm oil) are getting close together then the rise of the crude oil price will stopp.
In Ukraine and Kazakhastan are a lot of hectares with fallow land (e.g. for rapeseed), the area already used still has more potential to reach western level of productivity.

By the way i think we reached the technical peak (maximum amount of oil produced per day) last year, till the price peak it lasts perhaps one year more (maximum for industry and business).
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Cashmere » Mon 19 May 2008, 11:17:10

Graeme is still crackers.

Graeme - 2 things.

1. You joined this site in 2005, when oil was about 50 bucks a barrel.

To what do you attribute the run up of over 140% since your membership began if not to supply and demand?

If you do attribute it to supply and demand, then why don't you see the trend continuing?


2. What the hell do you spend so much time here for? Seriously, you're like the sworn meat eater spamming the vegan board as to the health benefits of red meat.

Why do you care so much?

Personally, I don't mind you at all - there are at least 2 bungholes who are POers on this site who I despise (rhymes with "Sister Chill" and "Rant Has a Way") and who I'd rather see go before you.

But, nonetheless, I don't get why you'd care about it enough to post here non-stop.

For example, I think Israel is a racist, war mongering abomination of a country, but I don't post for 3 years on the hebrewrocks.com website trying to convince them of the error of their ways.

I guess what I'm saying, Graeme, is that it stinks of you having an inside interest in this.

So that's what puzzles me about you. You're either bizarrely fixated on this, or you have an inside interest.

The first, I wouldn't mind at all and I'd welcome the different perspective. The second, would bug me.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Aaron » Mon 19 May 2008, 12:28:18

Many on our little planet are perfectly willing to pursue an agenda which benefits themselves in some fashion, even if it has terrible consequences for others.

Same as it ever was.

It is a valid observation however that constant spamming does bury more important threads in the forum.

I'll give this some attention and take any steps necessary to curtail this effect.

In fact, can our Moderators please examine this issue with our COC spamming policy in mind?

Thanks.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby cipi604 » Mon 19 May 2008, 12:28:46

I'm sorry to say this but a lot of people here have big problems with logic. I think technology will save some, but most of us won't survive.It's pretty clear for me, I don't really know the logic of Graeme and I don't understand it.
Or maybe NZ will be fine, and that's all he cares about.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby DomusAlbion » Mon 19 May 2008, 12:42:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'M')any on our little planet are perfectly willing to pursue an agenda which benefits themselves in some fashion, even if it has terrible consequences for others.

Same as it ever was.

It is a valid observation however that constant spamming does bury more important threads in the forum.

I'll give this some attention and take any steps necessary to curtail this effect.

In fact, can our Moderators please examine this issue with our COC spamming policy in mind?

Thanks.


At least Graeme's material is related to Peak Oil. If you're thinking about limiting irrelevant material how about excluding all the truly non-PO (or real world for that matter) "Esoterica". There are plenty of websites for aliens, illuminati, ... et. al.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Jack » Mon 19 May 2008, 14:14:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')hat puzzles me is why you are here.


He is here because he wants attention.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 19 May 2008, 14:25:17

I'd like to put in a word of support for Graeme. Yes, his positions are sometimes unreasonably optimistic, but he's a sober and mature contributor and has done much good work here.

Don't attack Graeme, attack his ideas and biases. That's where the fair playing field lies.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 19 May 2008, 14:28:09

Labeling something as "hysteria" does not seem a reasoned argument to me. Something more akin to ad hominem.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 19 May 2008, 14:30:31

I agree with that, Ludi. This is one of those cases where Graeme's judgment seems unreasonable, and I made allowance for that in my post.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby mididoctors » Mon 19 May 2008, 15:50:17

a few hard core "debunkers" are not a bad thing...

even as a Bias check.

Its easy to avoid a thread or press the ignore button.. I don't see the problem myself but will defer to the majority as it were.

the odd thing I find about this thread is the data presented really goes someway to supporting the notion that the consensus "the near peakers have it" is not unreasonable and the far peakers are a new REACTIONARY response trying to reduce "the hysteria"

thats my take..

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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Pops » Mon 19 May 2008, 15:59:58

As to the original question I think if one would go to the BP charting tool and click on the chart of proven reserves to production they would see a ten year long plateau which illustrates quite nicely the basic rational behind a closer rather than more distant peak.

Oh and don't forget that a good portion of those reserve numbers have been called into question due to the benefits of citing inflated reserves.

It won't matter the amount pumped when R/P ration starts going downhill.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 19 May 2008, 16:03:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'G')raeme, your quoted posts speak for you. If you don't believe the quotes you are posting, why are you even posting them in the first place? I now think that you are afraid of peak oil.

Attack on you is outrageous? You call that an attack? What is outrageous is the fact that you have the gall to continue cluttering up and spamming this board with massive amounts of cornucopian techno-fantasy bs topics. I don't really care if you believe or don't believe in peak oil. Believe whatever you want. But remember that this still is a peak oil forum. Not a 'technology is going to save us' forum.


Note the thread title, "Peak Oil Hysteria" and ask yourself, who's hysterical here?

My brother, husband and I were all committed to a kind of doomer scenario, until we spent the better part of a decade studying the problem and how it is related to finance. We are much LESS worried about a Mad Max scenario, brought on by purely geologic factors, outside of man's control.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 19 May 2008, 16:14:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'G')raeme, given all that you must know from your participation in this website, do you really believe we are 20 to 30 years from peak?

Is that what the markets are telling us?

What is the opposite of hysteria? Complacency. Which is more likely to provoke action that can fend off total disaster?
?


The opposite of hysteria is calm. Hysterical people are highly suggestible. They'll end up driving right off a cliff unable to see the small fork in the road filled with cyclists.

Peak Oil theory is a kind of Rorschach test rendered in oil, instead of standard ink. Our reaction to the severity and potential solutions reflects our personalities, more than anything.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby mididoctors » Mon 19 May 2008, 16:41:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'G')raeme, given all that you must know from your participation in this website, do you really believe we are 20 to 30 years from peak?

Is that what the markets are telling us?

What is the opposite of hysteria? Complacency. Which is more likely to provoke action that can fend off total disaster?
?


The opposite of hysteria is calm. Hysterical people are highly suggestible. They'll end up driving right off a cliff unable to see the small fork in the road filled with cyclists.

Peak Oil theory is a kind of Rorschach test rendered in oil, instead of standard ink. Our reaction to the severity and potential solutions reflects our personalities, more than anything.


I often find myself at odds with your viewpoints here but in this instance I find we share common ground..

even if one was a down and out mega doomer being hysterical about every single piece of data or headline and flapping around like a headless chicken does little good even for ones own mental well being.

lets say it really is going to go completely beyond the thunderdome.. the real deal is keeping your head while everyone else loses theirs.

if your argument is that you need to shout down the nay sayers because they are blurring the argument to do something then I suggest embracing a wider audience than a flame war at PO.COM

but OTOH people can wind you up so the occasional "go f**k yourself" may be in order.



YMMV

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Last edited by mididoctors on Mon 19 May 2008, 19:00:22, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby madjack » Mon 19 May 2008, 17:08:49

Hi everyone, I’m new to this forum. I found you via a google gadget called “Peak Oil News” I clicked on the headline “Peak Oil Hysteria” and found a full scale war going on between two people who seem to have been at it for a long time!... I don’t want to get caught in the middle of the fight between the troll and the priest of peak oil..BUT isn’t a forum/discussion board all about opinions and discussion? Is this the Church Of Peak Oil? I’m not saying I agree with Graeme, that technology will save us all...but I find Drifter’s “get lost if you aren’t a believer” POV offensive... IMHO, new technology will go some way, if not all the way to taking over from oil, especially when it hits $300 - $400 a barrel. Money is the mother of invention. We aren’t going to descend into the new middle ages, walking behind horses pulling ploughs again, unless most of the world’s population is wiped out by bird flu. Anyway, I’m enjoying reading, so carry on. Cheers, Mark :-)
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Twilight » Mon 19 May 2008, 17:36:58

A more interesting exercise would be to take a couple of dozen predictions from the last couple of years and observe both the heavy clustering around 2010 and near absence of dates beyond 2015. I have seen such a table of course, which is why I know what it will show. Interestingly, a number of investment banks do not endorse the optimists' expectations.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby Novus » Mon 19 May 2008, 17:52:53

This thread has absolutely no substance at all and since it has been turned into flame war I vote moving it to the hall of flames.
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 19 May 2008, 19:28:46

Graeme, here is a suggestion: perhaps you could begin submitting some of these articles to be posted on the news page rather than in the forums.

Also, when you post an excerpt from a story and the link to the story, maybe you could post the significance of the story or some commentary if the purpose of the post is to start a discussion.

That shows that you thought about it yourself and have a starting point for relevance.

Think of it like the peakoil.com equivalent of a self-addressed stamped return envelope.

As for those who are flaming Graeme, there is no reason for that. If you don't like what he posts, don't reply.

But Graeme, I think there may be a couple of things you can do to make your posts more useful (see above).
:)
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby hironegro » Mon 19 May 2008, 20:35:35

Graeme you a baby boomer or an attention whore?
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Re: Peak Oil Hysteria

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 19 May 2008, 20:55:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', 'I')f you don't believe in peak oil, why in the hell are you even here?
Peak oil isn't about belief, it's about understanding that just like almost everything else (less energy from the sun for practical purposes within the next few thousands years or so) in our finite environment the available amount is limited.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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