by Jupidu » Mon 19 May 2008, 11:16:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you another who won't tolerate a different point of view?
Graeme is right. If it isn't allow to present another point of view then we have a reached a point of fascist system: One opinion for this, one opinion for that, end of the discussion.
If a point of view or a opinion is false then it should be no problem to prove the opposite. Everybody can learn in the process of getting the best knowledge in a subject. Even scientists are discussing over and over again.
This happened in the twenties of the last century when Bohr or Heisenberg and other nuclear scientists discussed the theories of Einstein (e.g. the construction of matter) and it is happening today e.g. about the development of the universe.
I own a book called "How to discuss with fanatics". It's a quite boring book because it has a lot to do with philosophy and how to argue correctly when analysing a hypothesis.
At least one sentence (in the first pages

) i remember quite good:
To discuss facts is a neverending story, to discuss a faith is much easier.
No one can really say how many small peasants have to give up agriculture because they can't afford the diesel any more. What about all the thousand small fishers in their boats with diesel engines? In many (poor!) countries power is produced by diesel-engine-driven generators, but the same e.g. in Lebanon!
Rapeseed (Harvest August '08 at RMX in Hannover, Germany:
http://www.raiffeisen.com/markt/telegra ... index_html ) costs 435€/t (1t =1000kg). With a oil mass proportion of 33% (realistic value) you can press 330kg oil out of 1t of rapeseed, thats 359 Liter (0,92kg/L)=> Only the oil in the raw material costs 1,21 €/Liter without costs of pressing, transport, depot, taxes, Chemical anlysis, etc.
One Liter of crude oil (126$/bl, 159Liter) costs 0,51€, for diesel (refinery) you have to add 0,065€ /Liter = 0,573€/Liter.
When this two prices (or even earlier with the price of palm oil) are getting close together then the rise of the crude oil price will stopp.
In Ukraine and Kazakhastan are a lot of hectares with fallow land (e.g. for rapeseed), the area already used still has more potential to reach western level of productivity.
By the way i think we reached the technical peak (maximum amount of oil produced per day) last year, till the price peak it lasts perhaps one year more (maximum for industry and business).