[jboogy]

Demand destruction is the wildcard, many have said it would probably kick in for real at about 100.00. That has proven to be incorrect. I have personally observed widespread changes in peoples choices only very recently, but these changes have been stark and unmistakeable. I'm talking about all the trucks, boats and campers with for sale signs on them, this has been supported with sales data from the automakers. Simply changing from a truck to a compact won't impact oil futures, not with china and india ready to pick up the slack. If however, America sinks into a depression or serious recession then you may see people parking their compacts and then you would see an impact on demand. America currently uses roughly 30% of the worlds oil don't forget.

[zzzpeakoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', '
')I am not quite done with this newbeee...

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'D')emand destruction is the wildcard, many have said it would probably kick in for real at about 100.00. That has proven to be incorrect. I have personally observed widespread changes in peoples choices only very recently, but these changes have been stark and unmistakeable. I'm talking about all the trucks, boats and campers with for sale signs on them, this has been supported with sales data from the automakers. Simply changing from a truck to a compact won't impact oil futures, not with china and india ready to pick up the slack. If however, America sinks into a depression or serious recession then you may see people parking their compacts and then you would see an impact on demand. America currently uses roughly 30% of the worlds oil don't forget.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zzzpeakoil', '
')
Matt Simmons.. Matt Simmons is human and humans make mistakes sometimes.

[jboogy]

I think you misunderstand my use of the term "demand destruction" SJN, I'm talking about the destruction of the price of oil due to reduced demand. At least this has always been my interpretation of the phrase, but I could be wrong.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zzzpeakoil', '
') I don't see what kind of logic and math PMS was operating with when starting this thread

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'D')emand destruction is the wildcard, many have said it would probably kick in for real at about 100.00. That has proven to be incorrect. I have personally observed widespread changes in peoples choices only very recently, but these changes have been stark and unmistakeable. I'm talking about all the trucks, boats and campers with for sale signs on them, this has been supported with sales data from the automakers. Simply changing from a truck to a compact won't impact oil futures, not with china and india ready to pick up the slack. If however, America sinks into a depression or serious recession then you may see people parking their compacts and then you would see an impact on demand. America currently uses roughly 30% of the worlds oil don't forget.

[dinopello]

PMS, if the future could always be predicted as a continuation of the patterns of the past, we wouldn't have Jazz music. But, I digress...

I assume that you don't ascribe a 100% probability to oil reaching $400 a barrel this year ? What probability would you ascribe to that event ?

I would put something as high as a 20% chance on it.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'P')MS, if the future could always be predicted as a continuation of the patterns of the past, we wouldn't have Jazz music. But, I digress...

I assume that you don't ascribe a 100% probability to oil reaching $400 a barrel this year ? What probability would you ascribe to that event ?

I would put something as high as a 20% chance on it.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')I assume that you don't ascribe a 100% probability to oil reaching $400 a barrel this year ? What probability would you ascribe to that event ?

I would put something as high as a 20% chance on it.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'H')owever, recent developments make me think we are shifting from parabolic to hyperbolic, i.e. a price shock this year putting us in roccman/sjn territory or worse.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jboogy', 'D')emand destruction is the wildcard, many have said it would probably kick in for real at about 100.00. That has proven to be incorrect. I have personally observed widespread changes in peoples choices only very recently, but these changes have been stark and unmistakeable. I'm talking about all the trucks, boats and campers with for sale signs on them, this has been supported with sales data from the automakers. Simply changing from a truck to a compact won't impact oil futures, not with china and india ready to pick up the slack. If however, America sinks into a depression or serious recession then you may see people parking their compacts and then you would see an impact on demand. America currently uses roughly 30% of the worlds oil don't forget.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
My WAG estimate is that there is a 40% chance we have or will enter a hyperbolic runup past $200 this year

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
My WAG estimate is that there is a 40% chance we have or will enter a hyperbolic runup past $200 this year

[jboogy]

If you throw hyper-inflation into the mix then who the hell knows what the price would be relative to todays stable, predictable level of inflation. If we see hyper-inflation, and I've said before it appears there's a good chance we're heading there, then I'm not sure the price of barrel of oil will even matter. If the U.S. economy sneezes the rest of the world catches cold ( as they're fond of saying), U.S. hyper-inflation means game over for all intents and purposes. Remember when the Bear-Sterns story broke? We all thought our markets were going to crash, but remember whose markets did take a dive. Everyone has been exposed to the CDO, bad paper, hedge fund witches brew. This whole freakin' mess, and I mean worldwide, is looking like it's going to come to a standstill, if not crash.

[TWilliam]

Just in case anyone has missed it, the crude oil price chart on the Peak Oil Google Portal page normally displays the 1-month graph, but there are rollovers beneath the graph that switch the display between month, quarter, year and five year displays. Altho' it presently only displays data from early '05 going forward, the five year graph shows a definitely steepening price curve...


Peak Portal

If the trend continues ('hockey-stick', anyone?), then it is likely that 2008 will be a decidedly UN-merry Xmas for a LOT of people...

[BigTex]

I think we are standing in a space that is similar to 1968.

- Several years of expensive and pointless war
- Out of control government spending
- On the cusp of a gold boom
- On the cusp of an era of high oil prices
- Presidential election that could go either way
- Lots of pissed off Americans
- Stupid Texan in the White House

I think stagflation is what we're looking at. I don't know how you can have anything except stagflation when oil prices remain high no matter how much economic growth slows.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')To move into the hyperbolic phase, we will probably need some specific event - a major financial bankruptcy, the dollar being abandoned by the Gulf Cooperation Council, etc., although that may not be required.

It's just a little early to say that more likely than not we are going to $240 within six months.