[Eli]

JD you are right, if we should have acted long ago though.

Peleg they are just so far off the mark though they need to get a new line of work.

T.Boone is the person we should be listening to he has been a lot closer to the mark. Robert Hirsch should be given an immediate cabinet position.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', '
')You know, I'm beginning to feel that cornucopians should be burned at the stake. If the doomers are wrong, and there's plenty of oil, well all that's at stake is a bunch of people looking stupid. If the cornucopians are wrong, and we're on/over the edge, it's a serious plunge for civilization.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'Y')ou know, I'm beginning to feel that cornucopians should be burned at the stake. If the doomers are wrong, and there's plenty of oil, well all that's at stake is a bunch of people looking stupid. If the cornucopians are wrong, and we're on/over the edge, it's a serious plunge for civilization.

[Jack]

Yes, Roccman - you've got a point.

Perhaps, before I flicker out, I can post a little something that insults the cornies and makes cruel suggestions about their cognitive abilities.

Hope springs eternal.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'Y')es, Roccman - you've got a point. Perhaps, before I flicker out, I can post a little something that insults the cornies and makes cruel suggestions about their cognitive abilities. Hope springs eternal.

[Twilight]

You have to remember the origins of the IEA lie in the 1973 Oil Embargo and the need to coordinate responses to future shocks and more generally create a counterweight to OPEC. The IEA has an explicit political agenda. It is openly declared on their web site. I can understand some indignation at the soothing reassurances of the EIA, who are ostensibly servants of the people, but the IEA is not. They have no obligation to betray.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'C')ERA will probably be one of the last holdouts. I wonder where all this $20-30 oil prices are that everyone's been saying is just on the horizon?

[FireJack]

It really looks like it going to be a last man standing scenario. Everyone is going to be sitting around expecting all that extra oil to show up and its going to be one official claim after the other telling people that more oil will come and everything is going to be all right.

Guess thats an advantage to those that prepare. Just make sure they don't know about it.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'J')D you are right, if we should have acted long ago though.

Peleg they are just so far off the mark though they need to get a new line of work.

T.Boone is the person we should be listening to he has been a lot closer to the mark. Robert Hirsch should be given an immediate cabinet position.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'C')ERA will probably be one of the last holdouts. I wonder where all this $20-30 oil prices are that everyone's been saying is just on the horizon?

[idiom]

At this rate we are about three weeks away from $150 being a support level.

[TheDude]

WSJ Link in OP is behind a paywall, try this one instead.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he IEA study won't be definitive. Big producers like Venezuela, Iran and China aren't cooperating with the study. Other producing nations like Saudi Arabia typically treat specific production data of individual fields as closely guarded state secrets.

To get around that, the IEA will depend on data gathered by IHS Inc., a major data and analysis provider in the U.S., as well as the U.S. Geologic Survey, a smattering of oil companies and national petroleum councils. Some oil-service companies are also lending a hand. The agency also plans to do computer modeling to make estimates where it lacks firm data.

[Sketh]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')SJ Link in OP is behind a paywall, try this one instead.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peleg', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'C')ERA will probably be one of the last holdouts. I wonder where all this $20-30 oil prices are that everyone's been saying is just on the horizon?

[TheDude]

CERA link. I'm always cleaning up after you guys!

This is goofy:



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')emand is where the threads of different scenarios overlap. Yes, we see weaker demand in the United States. The European economy is beginning to show signs of slowing. But demand growth in Asia and the Middle East is continuing its high pace. This is more consistent with another scenario we refer to as Asian Phoenix—characterized by strong global economic growth led by Asian countries (see “Break Point, the Dawn of a New Age, and CERA’s Global Energy Forum”). Of course, in many of those countries, government price controls prevent the full impact of higher prices from flowing directly to consumers.

[darren]

LOL! I'm loving that CERA image. This is happy talk at its finest....Turn that frown upside down! Unfortunately, while the little blue guys were on their break, oil climbed up another step to $135...

[TonyPrep]

The figures for May production have been released by the IEA.

The summary says oil production rose by 490 kbpd in May. However, this follows a sharp downward revision for April and for the first quarter. The implied revised estimate for April is 86.1 (from 86.8). No figures were given for the first quarter but eyeballing the chart on the front page of the web site appears to show an average of 87.0 mbpd, down from the last 87.23 estimate (itself down from the initial 87.33 estimate).

OECD oil stocks were down over 11 million barrels, in April. This is in contrast to the norm.

[virgincrude]

I'm just looking at this story on reuters;

IEA Trims Supply forecast

which is full of the usual crap speak but this sentence just makes me laugh:
"The lull in oil demand growth, however, may only be temporary as strong economic growth remains the key driving force," the IEA said

DUH. How can the economy GROW with out raising demand for oil???

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('virgincrude', 'H')ow can the economy GROW with out raising demand for oil???

[DantesPeak]

Apparently there is another downward revision in yearly supply estimates, and yes, supply is dropping faster than demand.

Note that the IEA thinks commercial inventories are down so low that government intervention may be needed:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he IEA lowered its projections for supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this year by 300,000 barrels a day to 50.04 million barrels a day.

OPEC, which supplies more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will need to provide about 31.6 million barrels a day this year to compensate, the report said. That's about 300,000 barrels a day more than the IEA anticipated last month.

The group pumped 32.31 million barrels a day last month, 40,000 a day more than in April, according to the report.