[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'G')raeme you a baby boomer or an attention whore?

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'A')lso, when you post an excerpt from a story and the link to the story, maybe you could post the significance of the story or some commentary if the purpose of the post is to start a discussion.

That shows that you thought about it yourself and have a starting point for relevance.

[cube]

to: Graeme
Let me tell you something I've learned in life.
When a person comes to you and talk it's serious.
When half a dozen people do it, it means you need to STOP doing it. *seriously*
I consider you to be a decent person, but this has been going on waaaay too long, and I would hate to have to turn to a moderator to ask you to stop this.

[yesplease]

I don't mind any posts honestly. Given how much trolling/ridicule is allowed no these sites it's silly to ask someone to stop posting when we can just ignore them. There's even a freakin' button to have it done automatically, how much easier can it be people?

Also, while I may not think that everything you post is as in depth as I prefer Graeme, I certainly do not mind new material to sink my teeth into be it from you or anyone else. If someone decides to post up something, don't shoot the messenger unless they're deliberately altering the information, or worse, flat out lying, when addressing the article itself is just as easy. And as for requests to stop posting, well... I don't think we can help those poor souls who don't have the wherewithal to find the ignore button in the first place and feel that they need to ask someone else to stop posting.

[hironegro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'G')raeme you a baby boomer or an attention whore?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hironegro', 'G')raeme you a baby boomer or an attention whore?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'A')lso, when you post an excerpt from a story and the link to the story, maybe you could post the significance of the story or some commentary if the purpose of the post is to start a discussion.

That shows that you thought about it yourself and have a starting point for relevance.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'i')f we are peaking now the early predictions are not that far off..

the jump in dates around 2000 onwards are interesting.

I would like to see the density of the data over time..IE the number of forcasts for each data point.

I would have thought the peak predictions would be less in the past.

Boris
London

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'i')f we are peaking now the early predictions are not that far off..

the jump in dates around 2000 onwards are interesting.

I would like to see the density of the data over time..IE the number of forcasts for each data point.

I would have thought the peak predictions would be less in the past.

Boris
London

[Graeme]

I've gone back to look at those authors who have made multiple predictions. I'll take Campbell as an example to begin with:

In 1989, he said 1989
In 1998, Campbell/Leherre said 2004
In 1999, he said 2010
In 2002, he said 2010
In 2003, Laherre said 2010-2020

Shell has a similar pattern:

In 1979, plateau by 2004
In 2003, after 2025

And, IEA (WEO)

1998, 2014
2000, beyond 2020

So you can see that this is significant. Even so-called experts not only cannot agree when peak oil will occur but they keep shifting their predictions to a later date.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I')'d like to put in a word of support for Graeme. Yes, his positions are sometimes unreasonably optimistic, but he's a sober and mature contributor and has done much good work here.

Don't attack Graeme, attack his ideas and biases. That's where the fair playing field lies.

[Hagakure_Leofman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')his is a enormous contrast to the scientific literature published on global warming. Much more is known about this subject because of the very large number of scientific studies that I have reported in the global warming news thread in the environment forum. Now that the science is better understood and reported exhaustively by a UN panel over a period of many years, action is now beginning through the UN. Nothing of this sort is happening for peak oil. You have to ask yourself why?

[Graeme]

Briefing: Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')leklett, a Professor of Physics at Uppsala University, Sweden is concerned about the production problem allied to growing consumption.

He highlights the current situation in China. The Chinese economy is growing at around 10 percent each year and oil production in the country at full capacity. This means that China will have to import much more oil than the current figure of 3.5 mb/d. "This will push the demand for oil to a completely different scale," Aleklett said.

He believes that the worst-case scenario for peak oil is a plateau from 2007 -- 2012 before oil production starts to decline. The best case will be that production will go up to 93 mb/d. But he thinks that this would require the 10 giant oil fields in Iraq to go into production now.

But a report by the influential energy advisor Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) published in January 2008 takes a different view. Oil is not running out they say, predicting supply will top 100 mb/d by 2017.

Professor Aleklett remains pessimistic about increased rates of discovery in the coming years. "If you look at the discovery trends over the past 40 years, we will find 150 billion barrels in the next 30 years. If you are consuming 30 billion barrels every year means that that stock will last five years," he said.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'E')ven so-called experts not only cannot agree when peak oil will occur but they keep shifting their predictions to a later date.

[TheDude]

Thanks for linking to the BP Energy charting tool, Pops. Never messed around with it before.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'A')lso, when you post an excerpt from a story and the link to the story, maybe you could post the significance of the story or some commentary if the purpose of the post is to start a discussion.

That shows that you thought about it yourself and have a starting point for relevance.

[DantesPeak]

The changes in opinion by Campbell/Leherre are small in comparison to those optimists who forsaw $40 or even $20 oil in 2008 in their 2005 forecasts - but now predict $150 oil.

My point being - why not hold everyone to the same standard? There are probably hundreds of forecasts there would not be PO about now - or even in our lifetimes. So those forecasting PO are much much closer to reality than those that never saw a single supply problem coming.

Is there is mass delusion, it was all of those who never had the slightest clue about the future we now face.

[Heineken]

I feel that many have spent far too much time trying to pin down the year of the peak. It's a competitive intellectual game: Who will be right? Who will win the gold star?

Those who are "right" will, at best, have made a good guess. There are too many factors entering into this that simply cannot be predicted.

I ignore all this and just keep an eye on the Exxon price sign that dominates the center of the small town I live near. That's the only game that counts.

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'I')'ve gone back to look at those authors who have made multiple predictions. I'll take Campbell as an example to begin with:

In 1989, he said 1989
In 1998, Campbell/Leherre said 2004
In 1999, he said 2010
In 2002, he said 2010
In 2003, Laherre said 2010-2020

Shell has a similar pattern:

In 1979, plateau by 2004
In 2003, after 2025

And, IEA (WEO)

1998, 2014
2000, beyond 2020

So you can see that this is significant. Even so-called experts not only cannot agree when peak oil will occur but they keep shifting their predictions to a later date.