[Graeme]

Peak Oil Hysteria by Jim Manzi

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou will not be shocked to learn that, in fact, lots of forecasts for peak oil have been made over the years. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) identified 36 such forecasts published between 1972 and 2004. I conducted a quick analysis of the forecast for peak oil over time (1):



Notice any pattern in this data? Roughly speaking, forecasts indicate that we are 20 – 30 years from peak oil today, just as forecasts generally indicated that we were 20 – 30 years from peak oil throughout the 1970s and 80s.

Unsurprisingly, the DOE has taken a serious look at this question. Their best guess (and they are rigorous enough to put a range of many decades on this) is that peak production will be reached sometime in the middle of this century. The International Energy Agency projects that production will continue to increase at least through 2030. So does OPEC.

[Graeme]

Are you another who won't tolerate a different point of view?

I think it's widely known that accurate oil production and reserve data are impossible to obtain. Therefore, it follows that there will be wide range of estimates of the timing and nature (plateau or sharp crest) of world peak oil.

Is that not reasonable?

Oil producers and international energy monitors have every right to make their best estimate.

When do you think peak oil will occur (if it hasn't already) and why?

[BrazilianPO]

Peak Oil is not really the issue here. The issue is Peak Light Oil, which has already occurred; or Peak Easy Oil (excluding tar sands and deep-sea), which has also occurred. The best way to put it is, in 20 years we might still have not reached peak oil, but price will be U$ 5,000 a barrel because we will have to go drill in the Arctic, or down 15,000 m in the ocean, or build several nuclear power stations just to turn tar sands into oil.

So, the issue is really money, in my opinion. The easy cheap stuff is going down every single year.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'A')re you another who won't tolerate a different point of view?

I think it's widely known that accurate oil production and reserve data are impossible to obtain. Therefore, it follows that there will be wide range of estimates of the timing and nature (plateau or sharp crest) of world peak oil.

Is that not reasonable?

Oil producers and international energy monitors have every right to make their best estimate.

When do you think peak oil will occur (if it hasn't already) and why?

[Graeme]

Drifter, I did NOT say that world peak oil will extend out to 2030. The DOE, IEA and OPEC did. READ MY POST!

As for my motive for posting here, I've told you and this forum many times that I do not accept that western civilization is going to collapse as a result of peak oil. I have posted news articles on the latest developments in various types of renewable energy for this reason. Your attack on me is simply outrageous.

Why don't you just criticise what is written in the initial post instead of me?

I also will continue to question the timing of peak oil as appropriate whenever an article like the one above appears in the media.

[americandream]

For someone with such an optimistic view of western civilisation, you sure choose some odd places to hang out.

[Graeme]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'A')re you another who won't tolerate a different point of view?

I think it's widely known that accurate oil production and reserve data are impossible to obtain. Therefore, it follows that there will be wide range of estimates of the timing and nature (plateau or sharp crest) of world peak oil.

Is that not reasonable?

Oil producers and international energy monitors have every right to make their best estimate.

When do you think peak oil will occur (if it hasn't already) and why?

[Graeme]

It's not a question of believing in peak oil - it's not a religion. I know it's going to happen.

You are just labelling me falsely. I know the carbon-based fuels are finite. I'm not cornucopian. The progress in alternative energy is not fantasy - it's a reality that few know about or are willing to accept. Peak oil is not going to destroy us - technology will go a long way to saving us along with energy efficiency and our willingness to change our lifestyle in a relatively carbon-free world.

Yes, I do think that this web site does create a false perception about what the world knows about peak oil (many people are aware of it), and how members in this forum should prepare for it. I'm not afraid of peak oil but I am concerned that other people should not panic about a global energy transition.

[mididoctors]

if we are peaking now the early predictions are not that far off..

the jump in dates around 2000 onwards are interesting.

I would like to see the density of the data over time..IE the number of forcasts for each data point.

I would have thought the peak predictions would be less in the past.

Boris
London

[Graeme]

Thanks mididoctors, Finally I receive a comment about the original post!

Yes I agree that the dates around 2000 are interesting, hence my post. Unfortunately, I don't have information about the number of forecasts for each data point.

Does anyone else?

[desyk]

Boris

Do you know of any websites that provide statistics to the Oil and Gas industry or do the large Oil and Gas companies, do there own research and keep those figures under raps, for obvious reasons?

Can I contact you directly on a different topic?

Dominic

[TheDude]

My chief problem with this article is its condensending tone, which is par for the course for the boorish fucktards at the National Review. Also from this douchebag's pen:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')lobal warming doesn’t come close to threatening “a whole way of life”. Its expected impact is to make a much richer world 100 years from now ~3 percent poorer.

[Heineken]

Graeme, given all that you must know from your participation in this website, do you really believe we are 20 to 30 years from peak?

Is that what the markets are telling us?

What is the opposite of hysteria? Complacency. Which is more likely to provoke action that can fend off total disaster?

The material you posted in the OP does of course reflect a different point of view, but that fact alone doesn't necessarily make it worth any more than the toilet paper its printed on.

There comes a time when "different viewpoints" are no longer worth our time. Insane people have different viewpoints, for that matter, but does that mean we should sit down and take them seriously?