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We All Need A Short Break From This Topic

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

We All Need A Short Break From This Topic

Postby Wallygator » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 12:00:44

I discovered this web site about a week or so ago. I've seen myself go from writing somewhat meaningful posts to not caring anymore about anything at the present. I like to think about things and I also like to read about PO. I reflect on this problem sometimes when I'm at work or just going for a walk. I've been interested in PO for the last month and in the past week I've learned alot more since joining this site. Along with this new knowledge came alot of distressing thoughts and feelings especially pertaining to the future of my chosen career. The stress mainly is from not knowing when PO will happen. [I]"What if I plan for this coming crisis but it delays for another decade or two, will I see my buddies reach the top of their career while I'll be waiting for this phantom crisis?"[/I] is one thought that haunts me. I think what I'll do is not come this site or think about PO for two or three days. I really need to clear my mind right now.
I liked the responses from MonteQuest, OilyMon, JulianJ, Ayoob_Reloaded and others that I can't remember at the moment. Talk to you all in a bit.
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Postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 12:46:34

Alice was beginning to get very tired of sitting by her sister on the bank, and of having nothing to do: once or twice she had peeped into the book her sister was reading, but it had no pictures or conversations in it, `and what is the use of a book,' thought Alice `without pictures or conversation?'

So she was considering in her own mind (as well as she could, for the hot day made her feel very sleepy and stupid), whether the pleasure of making a daisy-chain would be worth the trouble of getting up and picking the daisies, when suddenly a White Rabbit with pink eyes ran close by her.

There was nothing so VERY remarkable in that; nor did Alice think it so VERY much out of the way to hear the Rabbit say to itself, `Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be late!' (when she thought it over afterwards, it occurred to her that she ought to have wondered at this, but at the time it all seemed quite natural); but when the Rabbit actually TOOK A WATCH OUT OF ITS WAISTCOAT- POCKET, and looked at it, and then hurried on, Alice started to her feet, for it flashed across her mind that she had never before see a rabbit with either a waistcoat-pocket, or a watch to take out of it, and burning with curiosity, she ran across the field after it, and fortunately was just in time to see it pop down a large rabbit-hole under the hedge.
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return once rested

Postby AnnaLivia » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 14:35:41

For Wallygator…and anybody else who feels weary, stressed, and in need of a break from it all…

There are indeed times when the most important thing you could possibly be doing is “taking your mind off the boilâ€
"O hell, here comes our funeral. Let us pry....for our missed understandings."
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Re: We All Need A Short Break From This Topic

Postby MattSavinar » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 18:22:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wallygator', 'I') discovered this web site about a week or so ago. I've seen myself go from writing somewhat meaningful posts to not caring anymore about anything at the present. ...
I liked the responses from MonteQuest, OilyMon, JulianJ, Ayoob_Reloaded and others that I can't remember at the moment. Talk to you all in a bit.

I think you've misdiagnosed your problem. Is it that your not sure when PO is "going to happen" or is it that you have an inferiority complex stemming from the fact that you (like most of us in petroleum culture) base their sense of self esteem on how high their income is?

If your biggest concern is that some of your "buddies" might make more money than you, you aren't understanding the nature of this crisis.

If you only discovered PO a week or two ago, this is part of the normal learning curve.

The truth is that even if most of the optimistic estimates (no peak till after 2015) come true, your buddies won't even have jobs in a decade or two. If you read a bit more (and thus come to realize this REALLY is happening) you might be able to position yourself to have some type of employment in a post-peak oil economy while your buddies are not.

As far as this being a "phantom crisis" do you think were in Iraq building 15 permanent military bases for shits and giggles?

Matt
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Postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 18:31:51

Matt makes a very good point.

There are also actions you can take that will do no harm even if the timings are wrong.

For example, get out of personal debt, and clear the mortgage if you can.

Even if the peak is 15 years away(yeah right), in mortgage terms this isn't a long time. But if you act now and start overpaying it is surprising how much interest and repayment time you save.

This is what I am doing, mind you if we get the anarchy scenario even this isn't gonna do me much good! :lol:

This is the dilemna for me, its not if or when , its how bad and how quick. If its really bad and quick then I haven't the resources in the short term to get through it. :cry:

PB
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Postby MattSavinar » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 18:40:35

Now might be a good time for JayHMorrison to chime in with some advice about how he has used his peak oil knowledge to make investments in the market.

This could assuage your fears about not having an "income" as big as your buddies while allowing you to begin preparing for this both financially and otherwise, as Jay appears to be doing. (IE, making money off the market while trying to get off the grid, buying land, etc. . .)

If the size of your "income" is your biggest concern, there are probably ways to make sure your "income" stays bigger relative to your buddies even if the average "income" is experiencing "shrinkage" due to peak oil.
This could range from investing like Jay if your into the market to opening up a solar power business if you have business acumen, going into bankruptcy law if your an attorney, goietc. . .

For instance, my background is in law. I have considered dusting off the bankruptcy law books as that will be a "growth" industry. I also took a class on alternative energy legal issues figuring that if I go back and practice, that would be an area better than others.

In fact, when I first put up my site, one of my goals was to use it to help me get a job as a lobbyist for the alternative energy industry. I figured that even though a.e. ain't gonna save our buts, it's certainly better than nothing. My "theory" was I could make a living from being a lobbyist by day while making my prepartions from being a permaculturist at night.

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Postby Permanently_Baffled » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 18:59:08

Hi Matt

Last Autumn I listened in on a show in which you were one of the "ask the experts" guests. On this show you said you were aiming to get into a eco village within 6-9 months, did you get any joy?

Or are you planning to join the rest of us in the mass graves ? :?

PB :)
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Postby MattSavinar » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 19:26:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', 'H')i Matt

Last Autumn I listened in on a show in which you were one of the "ask the experts" guests. On this show you said you were aiming to get into a eco village within 6-9 months, did you get any joy?

Or are you planning to join the rest of us in the mass graves ? :?

PB :)


I had a small "ecovillage exploration fund" at the time. Shortly after the show I was attacked by a dog here in the suburbs. (Had to escape by running into traffic, almost getting hit by an SUV).

The resulting medical bills wiped out the fund and put me back at square one. That was in November.

The incident taught me alesson about the average american: as I ran into the street to escape the beast, I was yelling, "help! help! this dog is attacking me!" Did anybody bother to stop? Of course not. Instead they just honked their horns at the man running across the street with the dog attacking him.

I got to the other side and scurried up a tree and sat there while the beast retreated to the other side of the street. Got honked at more by passers by who were wandering what some nutcase was doing sitting up in a tree on the side of the road.

Luckily the dog only got at my left leg. I also injured my hip pretty bad in the escape as I feel on it while running away. But overall, it could have been much, much worse. As the attack happened, I had some pretty scary images flash through my head.

(Sidenote: the house it happened in front of has all the characteristics of a methamphetamine lab. I am suspicious the dog may have ingested some speed, but have no way of knowing for sure.)

The incident also gave me new appreciation for petrochemical derived medicines. The antibiotics prevented any infection from the wounds and the painkilers helped with the hip injury. (which was much more painful than the bites).

Bizarrely, I had a reader of my site email me the same week that she had been attacked by a dog. Her attack was far, far worse than mine.

Unfortunately, peak oil preparation does not happen in a bubble. "Real life" gets in the way sometimes.

There were two ecovillages I had planned on interning at: Earth Haven in NC and Dancing Rabbit in Mo. Following the election, however, I became increasingly concerned that both of these villages are located in heavy evangelical areas. If/when the rapture does not come, I am quite worried how evangelicals will react to $15 gas and feel it is best not to be in an area where they are in abundance.

If I can find a way to finance it, I am looking into the ecological agriculture program at New College here in Santa Rosa. (tuition alone is $13,000 year and I'm unwilling to go into debt given the uncertainty of the next few years).

But these issues are probably best left to another thread,

Matt

P.S. The only lingering effects from the dog attack is a bit of a phobia on my part. The other day I was walking to Albertsons and I must have jumped 10 feet in the air upon seeing an animal poke it's head out of a neighbor's porch. When I realized it was nothing but a kitty- kat, I felt pretty silly.
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Postby maverickdoc » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 20:38:46

Matt, I am currently reading your book. Just curious when and where did you first hear about peak oil?
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Postby Ludi » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 21:09:25

My prep for PO is the same as my prep for retirement, otherwise I'm carrying on with my life as usual, working a couple hours a day for money, goofing off a lot...I don't see the need to choose between PO prep and my normal life. Or my abnormal life, I suppose....
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Postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 21:21:16

I don't know what you guys are so worked up about. So gas gets a little more expensive. Big deal.
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Postby BorneoRagnarok » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 21:27:01

Oh .... Matt , you are so unlucky. If that happen in my hometown , we (Chinese) will ask for our friends help to slaughter the dog and eat it if it is clean or dump in front of the owner's house. It is legal becuase the dog is roaming instead of been tied up properly.

Those fat land whales in SUV don't even help you ?? Luckily I did not apply for H1B to US the land where reality meet the dream (or whatever appear in local TV in late 1990's ), :P

I am also curious when you heard about peak oil . I heard about peak oil in 2001 through dieoff.org but was not convinced until early 2004 through peakoil.net
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Postby MattSavinar » Fri 25 Feb 2005, 22:27:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BorneoRagnarok', 'O')h .... Matt , you are so unlucky. If that happen in my hometown , we (Chinese) will ask for our friends help to slaughter the dog and eat it if it is clean or dump in front of the owner's house. It is legal becuase the dog is roaming instead of been tied up properly.
Those fat land whales in SUV don't even help you ?? Luckily I did not apply for H1B to US the land where reality meet the dream (or whatever appear in local TV in late 1990's ), :P
I am also curious when you heard about peak oil . I heard about peak oil in 2001 through dieoff.org but was not convinced until early 2004 through peakoil.net

There was an article (don't remember which one exactly) on From the Wilderness about the economy.

At the time (almost 2 years ago) I thought, "damn, that's some scary s***. But with all these alternatives, surely somebody will think of something. After all, can't we just use that thermal something or other process they wrote about in Discover?"

Read off and on for a few months on ftw, dieoff, etc. . before it finally sunk in after I got my bar results in Nov 2003. I think it would have sunk in earlier had it not been for the fact I had was totally preocuupied with the bar exam during those months, which in and of itself feels like the end of the world.

I put up the site because I didn't know how else to explain to people the whole "clusterf***" of the problem without them having to go through the 6 months of reading off and on, asking "but won't this solve it?' and "what if we did this?" and "can't the government institute this idea. . ." and "hey, this thermal depoly stuff will solve this.. ." and "but it's only a 3 percent decline per year, what's the big deal?" and so on and so on.

If you've ever tried to explain this to someone, you know what I'm talking about. Much easier just to send them a link that addresses all the usual refutations.

Back to the original poster's problem:

Wally Gator,

I hope this doesn't come off the wrong way, but when I first read your post I thought to myself,

"Geez. Here we are with:

Stephen Roach (chief economist at Morgan Stanley) saying we have a 90% chance of economic armageddon in the next few years and that he foresees total collapse of the central banking system;

Matt Simmons (most successfull energy investment banker in the world) stating, 'we're up shit creek with no paddle.' (He didn't use those terms exactly - but those of you who have read his writings know what I mean)

Alan Grenspan warning people to 'get their financial affairs in order.'

Warren Buffet saying we're on the verge of 'financial chaos.'

We've got the biggest money makers in the world saying we're on the verge of financial implosion yet Wally is worried his buddies might make more than him if he decides to take this crisis seriously!"

Wally: if your buddies aren't bright enough to comprehend why Buffet, Soros, Simmons, etc. . . are this concerned about the state of the world economy, I wouldn't worry about them making more money than you.

They're like the Viking Norse guys who insisted that they would still be able to raise sheep even when all the topsoil was gone, or that "sure the topsoil is being eroded, but it won't be totally eroded till I'm long dead, so why should I give a damn."

You're like the guy who thought, "Mmm, the topsoil is sure looking piss poor these days. Maybe I should go over and ask the Intuit (Eskimos) to teach me to fish. Besides, I don't know if running around with this silly hat on is all it's cracked up to be anyways."

Your fear is that the other Vikings will ridicule you if you start hanging out with the Intuit.

They will, of course, ridicule you, but at least you'll be eating when the topsoil is gone. All they'll have left is their silly hats.

Matt
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Postby pea-jay » Sat 26 Feb 2005, 04:48:12

I have also worried about the timing element:

Reorient life soon -- get into a safer position, but potentially not as safe or viable in the longterm as any relocation/preparations would be limited to what the finances allow at this point. (missing some income earning potential in the near term)

Reorient life later -- have a chance to make better preparations and enjoy the last few years of the party while earning funds. Risk of getting caught in a fast crash or find your intended options no longer available.

Its tough. I constantly waver back and forth on this. Right now I have zero disposable funds so I am not going anywhere.
UNplanning the future...
http://unplanning.blogspot.com
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Postby Pops » Sat 26 Feb 2005, 10:51:17

Matt said, “Unfortunately, peak oil preparation does not happen in a bubble. "Real life" gets in the way sometimes.â€
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Postby MattSavinar » Sat 26 Feb 2005, 17:57:03

[quote="Pops"]Matt said, “Unfortunately, peak oil preparation does not happen in a bubble. "Real life" gets in the way sometimes.â€
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Re: return once rested

Postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 27 Feb 2005, 00:23:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AnnaLivia', '
')

I believe the world is sick with exhaustion and dying of restlessness. While it is true that periods of weariness help the spirit to grow, the we will not survive. When you are tired you must HAVE that feeling and you must act upon it sensibly – you must rest like the trees and animals do.

Yet tiredness has become a matter of shame! This is a dangerous development. Tiredness has become the most suppressed feeling in the world. Everywhere we see people overcoming their exhaustion and pushing on with intensity – cultivating the great mass mania which all around is making life so hard and ugly – so cruel and meaningless – so utterly graceless – and being congratulated for overcoming it and pushing it deep down inside themselves as if it were a virtue to do this. And of course Vasco, you know what happens when such strong and natural feelings are denied – they turn into the most powerful and bitter poisons with dreadful consequences. We live in a world of these consequences and then wonder why we are so unhappy.

So I gently urge you Vasco, do as we do in Curly Flat – learn to curl up and rest – feel your noble tiredness – learn about it and make a generous place for it in your life and enjoyment will surely follow. I repeat: it’s worth doing nothing and having a rest.
Rest is the best. Sleep is sublime. Nice post.
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Postby marko » Sun 27 Feb 2005, 00:57:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'I') have also worried about the timing element:

Reorient life soon -- get into a safer position, but potentially not as safe or viable in the longterm as any relocation/preparations would be limited to what the finances allow at this point. (missing some income earning potential in the near term)

Reorient life later -- have a chance to make better preparations and enjoy the last few years of the party while earning funds. Risk of getting caught in a fast crash or find your intended options no longer available.


I have exactly this same dilemma. I had all but decided to quit my job this spring and move to an intentional community where I would spend the summer living in a tent and learning organic farming. This would also entail leaving behind my community of close friends, who are not about to make such a move.

But then I decided to try to hold out (at least) one more year, learn stuff evenings and weekends. My reasoning is that while my job will not survive an economic collapse, it provides nearly free health insurance and lets me save more than $1000 a month.

At the moment, I have a net worth that is not really enough to set up a rural homestead, or even build good housing on an intentional community, with money left over for supplies and emergencies. In a year, I might have enough money to make a homestead happen.

However, if the collapse happens before next spring, I will be not much better off than my urban neighbors who have not done a thing to prepare. And next spring, I will face the dilemma, quit now and try to set up a minimal, threadbare homestead, or work another year and have the money for a sturdier one?

My current thinking is to learn as many useful skills as possible (organic gardening, building skills, survival skills, foraging skills) until the economic collapse, maybe buy land when I find the right group of people to team up with, and hang on to my good income stream until it stops flowing, at which point I move to the piece of land and set up my homestead. At that point, my close friends might just want to join me!
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Postby spear » Sun 27 Feb 2005, 14:57:10

If you want to back off now,what you going to do when the going gets tough??
Follow your friends there too??
I tell my ten year old boy all the time when he follows his friends and they are up to childish mischief."If they (friends)jump off a cliff are you going to follow them?"
I think myself very fortunate that my eyes were opened by many things here,and believe that through this website there will be better assesments of the times to come,since its obvious that things is happening.
I may disagree with some of the things said on these forums,but hey,I disagree with some of my buddies too.
The desicion is yours how to set up your future.

Like in ancient Greek mythology when Hercules was facing a fork in the road,and didnt know which way to go.
On the one road was a woman dressed in rags,her name was Virtue.
She said to Hercules,"if you take this road,it is filled will dificulties and obstacles.It is a very rough road.
On the other road was a babe dressed in fine clothing,her name was Evil.
She said to Hercules,"come with me and I will give you riches and everything your heart desires bla bla bla.your life will be easy and carefree."
Needless to say Hercules took the road of Virtue and bacame a hero.
ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
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Postby RealityCheckBounced » Mon 28 Feb 2005, 12:46:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', 'I') don't know what you guys are so worked up about. So gas gets a little more expensive. Big deal.


I agree. All i'm doing to prepare for peak oil is keeping a little jar that I put my change in at the end of the day. That should easily cover the increase cost of gas. (remember i'll keep adding some everyday even after oil peaks so it will pretty much last forever.)
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