[Twilight]

Is this the same siren they dismissed for the 25 years since Hubbert rang it?

[outcast]

For those of us who can't speak german, what is the article about?

[Homesteader]

Here you are:

Sirens Shrill

"The Sirens Shrill"

Snip:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) gives the alarm: The world could run out of oil faster than expected - the danger of a supply shortage is rising

Hunger for energy vs. energy shortage: While the demand for oil is on the rise, the production is decreasing - shortages, escalating prices and inflation are looming. When talking to energy politician Astrid Schneider, Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA demands a change in policy from the member countries. His motto: leave oil before it leaves us.

Link: http://www.peakoil.com/article38082.html

[Doug50]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'F')or those of us who can't speak german, what is the article about?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')he differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'H')ey smart folks- Can you educate me a bit better to the figures they are using. Is that total crude and condensates (all liquids) they are talking about? Is there a separate place to find out exact crude oil production figures? Thanks.

[FreddyH]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')he differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreddyH', 'T')he differential of 1.4-mbd from EIA stats is getting a bit absurd. It is based on IEA's failure to address energy inputs for BTL, heavy, x-heavy & bitumen processing.

[smiley]

I 've been wondering about a sudden jump in global oil production last year as reported by the IEA.



Then I noticed this in the latest OMR.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')on-OPEC growth averages some 815 kb/d in 2008, after 545 kb/d in 2007, representing a potential resurgence in growth to the highest non-OPEC level since 2004. The FSU (+395 kb/d), Asia Pacific region (+365 kb/d), [b]global biofuels (+425 kb/d)[/b

[pup55]

In the summary they refer to in July of 07, biofuels start to show up as a little blip on their supply summary in the first quarter of '06.

I went back through most of the '06 archives and could not find any mention of it at all.

There is a cryptic reference in March of '07.

So I am thinking it finally got bigger than roundoff error in the middle of '06.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Other Sources of Supply Growth - Biofuels
Global biofuel production – largely ethanol and biodiesel – is forecast to increase by an impressive 32% in
2008 (+350 kb/d) to reach 1.45 mb/d. This follows similar growth in 2007, albeit from a low absolute base.
Widespread biodiesel growth in OECD Europe accounts for 38% (135 kb/d) of next year’s increase, while
the US, Brazil and non-OECD Asia each adds at least 50 kb/d to prevailing supply (predominantly ethanol
for the US and Brazil, which is included in those countries’ total oil supply data). Nonetheless, despite
sharp increases in percentage terms, this outlook mirrors a generally cautious forecast for biofuels in 2006-
2012 as contained in the MTOMR. Although installed capacity (based on firm projects) potentially reaches
nearly 3.0 mb/d in 2012 from 1.0 mb/d in 2006, either substantial amounts of capacity could remain
underutilised, or some projects may slip. Questions continue to surround biofuels’ economic viability
(given rising feedstock costs), competing claims on land use between energy and food supply and an
apparent lack of specific policy mandates for biofuels uptake within the vehicle fuel pool.

[smiley]

Thx,

It is deceptive isn't it? The way they lump it al together makes impossible to extract real field production numbers from the data.

Reminds me of the old joke:

Q: How do econometrists change a lightbulb.
A: They don't. They just redefine darkness as being light.



Here are some production data on biofuel production and growth.
http://www.iea.org/textbase/techno/essentials2.pdf

[TheDude]

I read something recently showing some real egregious double counting done by Iran as a matter of course. Didn't bookmark unfortunately.

[Sketh]

From the WSJ

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of a large study of the condition of world's top oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude-oil supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.

The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.
...
The IEA is now trying to shed light on some of the industry's best-kept secrets through a study of the world's top 400 oil fields. With behind-the-scenes assistance from major oil companies, oil-field-service companies, energy ministries and consultants, the agency hopes to assess the overall health of major fields scattered from Venezuela and Mexico to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. The fields supply more than two-thirds of daily world production.

The study, employing the efforts of a team of 25 analysts, marks a sea change in the IEA's efforts to peer into the future. In the past, the agency focused mainly on assessing future demand and then looked at how much non-OPEC countries were likely to produce to meet that demand. Any gap, it was assumed, would then be met by big OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran or Kuwait.

[jdmartin]

CERA will probably be one of the last holdouts. I wonder where all this $20-30 oil prices are that everyone's been saying is just on the horizon?

[Cashmere]

Oh boy, I can't wait till oil gets back to 20 bucks a barrel.

I've already got my SUV picked out . . .

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sketh', 'F')rom the WSJ

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency is in the middle of a large study of the condition of world's top oil fields. Its findings won't be released until November, but the bottom line is already clear: Future crude-oil supplies could be far tighter than previously thought.

The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.
...
The IEA is now trying to shed light on some of the industry's best-kept secrets through a study of the world's top 400 oil fields. With behind-the-scenes assistance from major oil companies, oil-field-service companies, energy ministries and consultants, the agency hopes to assess the overall health of major fields scattered from Venezuela and Mexico to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. The fields supply more than two-thirds of daily world production.

The study, employing the efforts of a team of 25 analysts, marks a sea change in the IEA's efforts to peer into the future. In the past, the agency focused mainly on assessing future demand and then looked at how much non-OPEC countries were likely to produce to meet that demand. Any gap, it was assumed, would then be met by big OPEC producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran or Kuwait.

[Eli]

The IEA should just shut the fuck up they are making an ass of themselves the more they talk and prognosticate the more they prove they are just a bunch of idiots.

[Peleg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')he IEA should just shut the fuck up they are making an ass of themselves the more they talk and prognosticate the more they prove they are just a bunch of idiots.

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'T')he IEA should just shut the fuck up they are making an ass of themselves the more they talk and prognosticate the more they prove they are just a bunch of idiots.